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Breakdown of 2010 football schedule offers encouraging signs for Auburn

AWK

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Published: Tuesday, July 13, 2010, 9:04 AM   
Evan Woodbery 

With SEC Media Days on the horizon, I'm starting to think about my predictions for Auburn football in 2010, and I need your help.

I don't have to make my "official" pick for the newspapers until late August, but if I want to participate in the media vote next week, I'll have to start coming to some conclusions about Auburn and the SEC.

My predictions don't mean much, but I should point out that I accurately picked Auburn to be 7-5 last year. (My original pick was 6-6, but I wisely decided to add an extra win).

My formula for picking the season is simple: If the season were played right now, how many games would Auburn be favored to win? Of course, teams frequently lose games they should win and win games they're expected to lose, and Auburn did both in 2009. But this exercise provides a good starting place for making picks.

It's no secret that this year's schedule is much more favorable than 2009 was or 2011 will be. But I didn't realize how favorable it was until I started breaking down the picks.

Remember, I'm not picking who I think will win, but only the expected favorite and underdog if the season were played today.

My only reservations about these picks were the mid-October home games against Arkansas and LSU. Given that the games are played in Jordan-Hare Stadium, I think Auburn deserves to be considered a slight favorite. However, I gave Arkansas an edge because some of the ultra-early Vegas lines make the Razorbacks the favorite.

So, my pre-pre-season conclusion is this: Auburn might be an underdog only once until its final game of the season. Pretty surprising, huh?

That doesn't mean Auburn will enter the Iron Bowl at 10-1 or 11-0, but it does mean the Tigers probably deserve a bit more summer attention than they have garnered to this point. And it means Auburn has a very strong case to be picked the No. 2 team in the West at next week's media days.

Are any of my lines way off base? Let me know what you think.

** Standard disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only.

Sept. 4, ARKANSAS STATE
Line: Auburn by 25

Sept. 9, at Mississippi State
Line: Auburn by 6

Sept. 18, CLEMSON
Line: Auburn by 2

Sept. 25, SOUTH CAROLINA
Line: Auburn by 5

Oct. 2, LOUISIANA-MONROE
Line: Auburn by 28

Oct. 9, at Kentucky
Line: Auburn by 8

Oct. 16, ARKANSAS
Line: Arkansas by 2

Oct. 23, LSU
Line: Auburn by 1

Oct. 30, at Ole Miss
Line: Auburn by 2

Nov. 6, CHATTANOOGA
Line: Auburn by 38

Nov. 13, GEORGIA
Line: Auburn by 4

Nov. 26, at Alabama
Line: Alabama by 9

http://blog.al.com/auburnbeat/2010/07/breaking_down_auburns_2010_foo.html

Here's my thought, I agree with the concept that we can win every game, I just don't think we will.  I think there are still way too many questions on defense.  Also, thanks in large parts to the lack of a stellar QB over the past few years, I am hesitant to declare Cam Newton King of the world. 
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Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall said, "Guys don't mind hitting Michael Vick in the open field, but when you see Cam, you have to think about how you're going to tackle him. He's like a big tight end coming at you."

jmar

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I agree AWK.
 Apparently Clemson is expected to be a mild contender.
AU by 8 at KY after last season and by 4 over GA after the last 4?
 AU is an UND to Arky, no problem there BUT the following week a favorite over LSU. Hmmm!
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RWS

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I agree AWK.
 Apparently Clemson is expected to be a mild contender.
AU by 8 at KY after last season and by 4 over GA after the last 4?
 AU is an UND to Arky, no problem there BUT the following week a favorite over LSU. Hmmm!
Really, I think this is Les Miles' year to fuck it all up. I see them flopping just a bit, and AU will have home field advantage. It's hard to tell, because we really don't know how AU will do. Going into the season with a new QB adds alot of unknown to the equation.

I think Clemson will be back in form this year.

Kentucky beating AU last season was a fluke. I still don't know how the fuck it happened, but I really don't see them doing it twice in a row. But then again, KY can play some hard ball at times.

UGA should be a little better this season. They didn't have that much of a problem scoring, they just couldn't keep the other team from scoring. I think they win their 5th straight over AU this season.

Fuck Arkansas.
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"You're too stupid to realize that I'm one of the levelheaded Auburn fans around here" - The Prowler

GH2001

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Really, I think this is Les Miles' year to phuk it all up. I see them flopping just a bit, and AU will have home field advantage. It's hard to tell, because we really don't know how AU will do. Going into the season with a new QB adds alot of unknown to the equation.

I think Clemson will be back in form this year.

Kentucky beating AU last season was a fluke. I still don't know how the phuk it happened, but I really don't see them doing it twice in a row. But then again, KY can play some hard ball at times.

UGA should be a little better this season. They didn't have that much of a problem scoring, they just couldn't keep the other team from scoring. I think they win their 5th straight over AU this season.

phuk Arkansas.

I agree with you except on the UGA part. Richt is on the hot seat, they have been under performing lately, Evans got canned, players getting arrested and the worst recruiting year in the Richt era - I just see too much turmoil in Athens this year for them to be anything more than a good team.
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RWS

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I agree with you except on the UGA part. Richt is on the hot seat, they have been under performing lately, Evans got canned, players getting arrested and the worst recruiting year in the Richt era - I just see too much turmoil in Athens this year for them to be anything more than a good team.
Shit, wait......they are breaking in a new QB this season. I thought they had a returning starter for 1 more year. Yeah, just ignore the whole UGA part of my post. Later, Richt.
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"You're too stupid to realize that I'm one of the levelheaded Auburn fans around here" - The Prowler

JR4AU

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I agree with you except on the UGA part. Richt is on the hot seat, they have been under performing lately, Evans got canned, players getting arrested and the worst recruiting year in the Richt era - I just see too much turmoil in Athens this year for them to be anything more than a good team.

Hard to predict what their record will be.  I predict the hot seat rumors on Richt are false.  There's no rational basis for it.

Mark Richt

90-27 (.769)

7-2 in bowls
 
4 SECE Titles and 2 SEC Titles in 10
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No Huddle

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Allbarn should be 10-2 this year anything less is a disappointment.
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"So I want everybody to think here for a second, how much does this game mean to you? 'Cause if it means something to you, you can't stand still. You understand? You play fast! You play strong! You go out there and dominate the man you're playing against, and you make his ass quit! That's our trademark! That's our M.O.... as a team! That's what people know us as!" ~ Nick Saban

JR4AU

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Allbarn should be 10-2 this year anything less is a disappointment.

Disagree.  Lots of ys to get thru the season...much depends on how you get there and what others did in comparison.
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Snaggletiger

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Allbarn should be 10-2 this year anything less is a disappointment.

Without a defense? 
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My doctor told me I needed to stop masturbating.  I asked him why, and he said, "because I'm trying to examine you."

Buzz Killington

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Without a defense? 

Pfft...please.  The faster they score, the faster Cam and company can get back on the field.  WCE!!!
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Now I may be an idiot, but there is one thing I am not, sir, and that, sir, is an idiot.

Snaggletiger

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Pfft...please.  The faster they score, the faster Cam and company can get back on the field.  WCE!!!


You actually think this team can outscore all its opponents with the depth problems at long snapper?  You are duhreemin' fellah.
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My doctor told me I needed to stop masturbating.  I asked him why, and he said, "because I'm trying to examine you."

AUChizad

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You actually think this team can outscore all its opponents with the depth problems at long snapper?  You are duhreemin' fellah.
DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAX!!!!!!!!!
(Shakes fist towards the sky)
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AUTiger1

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DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAX!!!!!!!!!
(Shakes fist towards the sky)

Remember the scene at the end of Star Wars Episode 3?   Replace Vader with Harvey and Padme' with Dax and it's the same thing.
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Courage is only fear holding on a minute longer.--George S. Patton

There are gonna be days when you lay your guts on the line and you come away empty handed, there ain't a damn thing you can do about it but go back out there and lay em on the line again...and again, and again! -- Coach Pat Dye

It isn't that liberals are ignorant. It's just they know so much that isn't so. --Ronald Reagan

Snaggletiger

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Remember the scene at the end of Star Wars Episode 3?   Replace Vader with Harvey and Padme' with Dax and it's the same thing.

On a positive note, Da Skreets are talking about Trooper Taylor organizing a "Big Snapper" limo tour.  Details are sketchy right now but if true, this really shows how serious our staff is about recruiting. 
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My doctor told me I needed to stop masturbating.  I asked him why, and he said, "because I'm trying to examine you."

GH2001

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Hard to predict what their record will be.  I predict the hot seat rumors on Richt are false.  There's no rational basis for it.

Mark Richt

90-27 (.769)

7-2 in bowls
 
4 SECE Titles and 2 SEC Titles in 10

Tubs' record on paper and his accomplishments also didnt appear to warrant replacing him, but as you know JR, its the last 1-2 years people go by - and UGA has been average lately. Especially with the talent they have. The off field distractions dont help.
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Snaggletiger

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Richt's seat was pretty damn hot a couple of years back when he pulled all that rushing the field bullshit against Florida.  They were coming off a down year for Richt's tenure after losing to several teams they shouldn't have.  More importantly, Florida OWNED them to that point and that wasn't sitting well with the Dawg nation.  Despite his success, he was looking like the guy who just couldn't take them all the way. 

Make no mistake, the rivalry games on any team's schedule carry as much weight as just about anything else.  I used to go to a preseason dinner/fundraiser deal every year where Tuberville would give his usual canned speech.  But one thing he always made clear was that the Alabama game was priority one.  He said the boosters, fans, administration etc. make it clear that you better win that one.  Same way with UGA/UF.  While GT is Georgia's natural and historical rival, the game in Jacksonville is the one that gets the national spotlight every year.  It's a showcase game that Richt's bunch has received an ass chewing just about every single year in front of the world.  It's also against the favorite in your division every year.

 Despite the fact that they're breaking in a new QB, this is another year where Georgia has a ton of talent.  They have AJ Green, probably the 2nd best running back duo in the league in Ealy and King.  Plus they'll be behind a veteran OL.  They have a new defensive coordinator and plenty of talent on that side of the ball.  I don't know how hot his seat really is this year, but I think 3-4 losses combined with a spanking by the Gayders will make Richt's future really uncertain.

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My doctor told me I needed to stop masturbating.  I asked him why, and he said, "because I'm trying to examine you."

Buzz Killington

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a "Big Snapper" limo tour

Um dude...he's not looking for foosball players.
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Now I may be an idiot, but there is one thing I am not, sir, and that, sir, is an idiot.

No Huddle

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I am just saying I only see two games you should lose.
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"So I want everybody to think here for a second, how much does this game mean to you? 'Cause if it means something to you, you can't stand still. You understand? You play fast! You play strong! You go out there and dominate the man you're playing against, and you make his ass quit! That's our trademark! That's our M.O.... as a team! That's what people know us as!" ~ Nick Saban

jmar

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I am just saying I only see two games you should lose.
I tell you an undefeated season is the only response to such a ploy my dear Watson. Auburn fans everywhere are experiencing a false sense of security in the team's fortunes based on the prediction of this No Huddle fellow. We must warn them that they not get their hopes up too high in the event the team should stumble upon hard times.

The enemy claims houndstooth and as a fashion expert I deplore their confusion with mere plaid. I shall never rest until those responsible are shown the error of their way.

It's a British thing! 
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djsimp

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Tubs' record on paper and his accomplishments also didnt appear to warrant replacing him, but as you know JR, its the last 1-2 years people go by - and UGA has been average lately. Especially with the talent they have. The off field distractions dont help.

Egg Zac Lee, it's a "what have you done for me lately" business. This is unfortunate for Richt because honestly think he is a class individual but CFB is about just winning baby.
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