I agree with Kaos' "it wouldn't be all over the media if it wasn't gonna happen" theory. It's just like how we heard all about a bama commitment switching to Auburn right before Craig Sanders switched.
It will be somewhat impressive if Saban switches him, but not incredibly so. For one, he has the fact that James Stone left for Tennessee. He can use that like this, "honestly, Shon, we're glad he's chosen UT. The more we got to know him and the more we watched you, we were hoping something would come up to allow us to go after you. Now that he's moved on, we're elated to have the opportunity to finally get who we really wanted".
Second, Coleman didn't pick Auburn over anyone really. It's not like he looked around, made some visits, and picked Auburn over someone in a head-to-head type decision. We're the only car he test drove. Maybe we're a BMW to Alabama's Mercedes. They're both great, but you don't know which you like better until you've driven both. So it's not like Coleman checked with Auburn, checked with Alabama, chose Auburn, then was persuaded otherwise at the last minute. He may have been an Alabama recruit 6 months ago had he just visited them in the first place.
Any way you look at it though, it does suck for us in every way possible (on the field, in the media, etc).