Game of the Week
Auburn (5-2) at LSU (5-1), 7:30 EST, Saturday, October 24, ESPN2
Why to watch: LSU still controls its national title destiny … sort of. There might need to be losses from Iowa and Cincinnati, and … whatever. That’s 17 steps down the road, and for now, LSU just needs to take care of itself, improve on the lines, get more production from the passing game, and find a way to go on a run. And yes, if LSU wins out, it’ll play for the SEC Championship and will get a rematch against Florida, and then the chips would fall from there. However, there’s still a trip to Alabama to deal with and there’s still a road game at Ole Miss to play, and first, the Tigers have to beat the other Tigers, who are trying to get back their mojo after losing two straight. Losing to Arkansas was one thing, it was a road game and there were a few key turnovers, but losing 21-14 at home to Kentucky has all but soured the 5-0 start that had everyone so excited. The passing game has struggled and the defense has failed to come through clutch, but there’s still time to turn things around and win the West by winning out and getting a second Alabama loss. After this it’s three home games in the final four, and a win in Death Valley would show that Gene Chizik has Auburn back to being Auburn.
Why Auburn might win: 295 yards per game. That’s what LSU’s offense, the worst in the SEC, is averaging. The passing game is efficient, but not consistent, and the running game has been all but non-existent at times. This isn’t a team equipped at the moment for a firefight with all the top players failing to produce, and if Auburn can win the battle on the lines all game long, it has a chance. Florida challenged LSU’s manhood by running dive play after dive play on the way to 195 hard rushing yards, and while Auburn won’t be looking to power the ball Tebow-style, it has the ground game, and the O line, to rip off at least 200 yards on a defense that’s getting by more on reputation than production.
Why LSU might win: The Auburn passing game has gone bye-bye. So efficient and so dangerous at the beginning of the season, Chris Todd has completed just 25-of-52 passes for 213 yards with an interception over the last two games. By comparison, he only threw for fewer than 218 yards once in the first five games. LSU doesn’t generate a pass rush, but the secondary has done a very nice job against a slew of mediocre passing games. Auburn doesn’t have the wide receivers to throw anything scary at the Tiger corners, while the front seven should be able to force a few turnovers. LSU doesn’t give the ball away, while Auburn lost three fumbles against Arkansas two weeks ago. Auburn doesn’t turn the ball over on a regular basis, but even being -2 in a game like this could be disastrous; LSU will win the turnover margin.
Who to watch: Auburn RB Ben Tate suffers from being in the same conference, and the same state, as Alabama’s Mark Ingram, but he has been every bit as effective and even more consistent. The Tiger senior has rushed for 100 yards or more in five of the first seven games, and even in defeat he was able to carry the offense with 184 yards and two scores against Arkansas and 132 and a score against Kentucky. However, he has shouldered a massive workload, carrying the ball 150 times so far with 31 carries against Kentucky. Star freshman Onterio McCalebb will start to get more work.
What will happen: It’s the 12th Annual CFN lame line lock of the year … the Tigers will win. Neither offense will be consistent, but there will be a stretch in the second half when the two teams will break through the defensive struggle to trade some big punches. Auburn will start to play better and will be sharper than it was against Kentucky, but LSU QB Jordan Jefferson will answer the call to start doing more for the offense and will lead the way to two fourth quarter scoring drives to finally put the game away.
CFN Prediction: LSU 23 … Auburn 17 ... Line: LSU -8
Must See Rating: (Monty Python: Almost the Truth (The Lawyer’s Cut) 5 ... This Is It 1) … 4
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