I don't want to disparage this victory for Saxby Chambliss because it was a very important win for our republic BUT I ran across this 'analysis' today by a writer on Townhall.com and it tells me that RNC Chairman Duncan needs to re-examine Republican strategy...or he needs to go. While this was not an easy win by any means for Chambliss it was a win to be expected in this runoff.
What the author's (and Duncan's) analysis leaves out is that The ONE had NO coat-tails in Georgia! He did not win this state the first go around on election day (and neither did the
Democrat socialist challenger for Chambliss); even with the large black and
Democrat socialist turnout!
They also leave out the negative electoral effect of the libertarians in this state who, hopelessly in my opinion, follow the delusion that they can actually get one of their candidates elected here. (They should follow the example of Dr. Ron Paul but that's another story.)
Without the libertarian on the ballot (and assuming that all of the libertarians stayed at home, not supporting either major party) Chambliss would have won at least 51.5 percent of the vote; a result that would not require a run-off election. Incorporating the libertarian's voting block either for their candidate or, most unlikely, for the
Democrat socialist would have resulted in either a run-off between the top two parties (which we got) or a
Democrat socialist win if added to the equation. Just my two cents on what effect they had in Georgia.
Chambliss's race is NOT the first race of 2010. And it's not the last of 2008 because they are still counting votes in Minnesota where, hopefully, Norm Colemen (R-MN) will retain his seat.
The Republican Party is in some deep drek right now and we need smarter thinking than this over-confident post-mortem of the run-off election.
Having writ that however RNC Chairman Duncan was right about one thing; this win will help lift the spirits of the party faithful; lets just hope that it also lifts the thinking and mindset of the party leadership.
As mentioned, this is from Townhall.com, all emphasis is my own:
RNC Chair: GA Victory Proves 'Republicans Do Know How to Win Elections'
Friday, December 05, 2008
Matt Lewis
I just completed my much-anticipated interview with RNC Chairman Mike Duncan, and he had some very interesting things to say about Saxby Chambliss' win in Georgia's Senate runoff.
Specifically, Duncan implied the Georgia results prove that Barack Obama does not have coattails in elections where he is not on the ballot (this, of course, is great news going into 2010).
The numbers seem to confirm this: Saxby took home a whopping 57% of the vote in his runoff against Democrat Jim Martin, compared to 49% in the general election. Duncan concluded that this was partly due to the fact that Obama's personal dynamism drove up turnout in the general, driving up the vote for Martin.
However, the Obama effect could not be replicated when Martin was running by himself.
In my opinion, this means that the Chambliss race is really the first race of the 2010 elections -- where congressional Democrats will have to stand on their own two feet -- rather than counting on Obama to drag them into office.
In short, the theory is that Obama is a singular phenomenon, and people do not seem to be associating him down-ticket Democratic candidates at all.
Duncan also refuted the idea that Georgia represented a safe (and therefore meaningless) GOP seat. He pointed to the fact that Chambliss not only beat Martin, but blew him out of the water with a 14% margin of victory. This was not the tight race that many Democrats had hoped for, and the GOP was able to implement a successful campaign to ensure that Martin never came close to unseating Saxby.
Duncan said that this race represented a "team effort" between the RNC and the local organizations in Georgia, and that the RNC provided the "ground game" necessary to push Chambliss over the top (volunteers were brought in from all over the country to help out).
According to Duncan, this race will help lift the spirits of the party faithful and increase with recruiting good candidates in the future. The chairman says that this victory proves that "Republicans do know how to win elections," and that is a message that people need to hear as we ramp up for 2010.
The link:
http://townhall.com/blog/g/ea351c1b-a434-4cd8-a188-782e859d650f 
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