Long, but hey, it's the off season. And nobody is on the board reading this anyway. Copy/pasta from Nathan King at Aubren Undercover.
If you want to project who’s going to be contending in the College Football Playoff or winning a conference championship, simply scroll back two or three recruiting cycles.
Rarely are the programs that routinely bring in top-10 classes not in the Playoff hunt once those signees get a couple years of development, nor are the top recruiting teams in each conference not the ones regularly competing to win their respective conference crowns. Sustainable and talented programs are built — and championships are won — during phone calls and recruiting visits. A solid haul in the transfer portal is also becoming more important.
Take Alabama and Georgia — the two teams that met in this past season’s national title game — for example. In 2019 — the first year of the current four-year averages for a variety of data points — they had the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 overall classes, respectively, per the 247Sports rankings. The teams with the highest Blue-Chip Ratio every year — percentage of four- and five-star recruits on a roster compared to two- and three-stars — are the ones winning their conference and making the Playoff, most of the time.
He are last year's Blue-Chip Ratios from the one who devised the formula, 247Sports's Bud Elliot.
Of course, they are plenty of exceptions here. Coaching — both poor coaching and coaching changes — plus major injuries and other factors can lead to subpar seasons for even the most talented or programs. LSU and Florida were both in the top 8 in BCR last season, and both fired its head coach. Texas was No. 7 in terms of blue-chip talent but finished 5-7 in Steve Sarkisian's first season.
And some teams are stuck in murderous conferences — or divisions, in Auburn’s case — with a slew of other talented teams around them, or a perennial Playoff contender who routinely wins the conference and streamlines itself into the final four rankings.
Even so, for a program to fundamentally put itself in championship contention each year, it has to recruit as well or better than its peers. There will always be exceptions, but the smarter tactic is to follow the consistent formula of success, not attempt to be the once-in-a-while anomaly.
Generally, teams’ talent is gauged based on their past four recruiting classes. That accounts for difference-making seniors and developing, superstar underclassmen all the same. With the 2022 class nearly complete for all programs — minus transfers, which don’t count toward a team’s recruiting ranking — we can more effectively peek at which rosters are most consistently made up of big-time recruits versus those that aren’t.
Auburn’s 2022 recruiting haul — the first full class for Bryan Harsin, after his Tigers went 6-7 in Year 1 — is ranked No. 21 nationally in the rankings and No. 9 in the SEC. After Auburn fell outside the top 12 of the national recruiting rankings last year for the first time since 2009, it's now outside the top 20 for the second straight cycle.
The Tigers are also dealing with a current net loss of 11 scholarship players in the transfer portal, though Harsin and his staff are looking to fill a few positions of need via the transfer market during the month of May.
From a four-year recruiting standpoint, just how talented is Auburn’s roster compared to the 13 other SEC programs? Keep in mind that the recruiting averages below do not account for transfers and NFL draft departures, rather they are a general look at each program’s recruiting health and consistency.
This breakdown will be the first in a five-part look at the SEC’s talent in 2022, and how Auburn compares — including today's look at four-year recruiting averages, as well as Blue-Chip Ratio, returning production, transfer numbers and NFL draft success.
14. VANDERBILT (AVERAGE RANK: 51.3)
• 2019: 58th
• 2020: 53rd
• 2021: 48th
• 2022: 46th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 50
13. SOUTH CAROLINA (AVERAGE RANK: 35.3)
• 2019: 21st
• 2020: 19th
• 2021: 78th
• 2022: 23rd
Last cycle’s four-year average: 34
12. MISSOURI (AVERAGE RANK: 33.5)
• 2019: 37th
• 2020: 51st
• 2021: 29th
• 2022: 17th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 40
11. KENTUCKY (AVERAGE RANK: 27.5)
• 2019: 34th
• 2020: 25th
• 2021: 33rd
• 2022: 18th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 32.3
10. MISSISSIPPI STATE (AVERAGE RANK: 27)
• 2019: 24th
• 2020: 28th
• 2021: 25th
• 2022: 31st
Last cycle’s four-year average: 26
9. ARKANSAS (AVERAGE RANK: 24.8)
• 2019: 23rd
• 2020: 30th
• 2021: 24th
• 2022: 22nd
Last cycle’s four-year average: 30.5
8. OLE MISS (AVERAGE RANK: 22.5)
• 2019: 22nd
• 2020: 34th
• 2021: 18th
• 2022: 16th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 26.5
7. AUBURN (AVERAGE RANK: 16.5)
• 2019: 11th
• 2020: 7th
• 2021: 27th
• 2022: 21st
Last cycle’s four-year average: 14.3
6. TENNESSEE (AVERAGE RANK: 15.8)
• 2019: 13th
• 2020: 10th
• 2021: 16th
• 2022: 24th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 15
5. FLORIDA (AVERAGE RANK: 12.8)
• 2019: 9th
• 2020: 9th
• 2021: 13th
• 2022: 20th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 11
T4. TEXAS A&M (AVERAGE RANK: 4.5)
• 2019: 4th
• 2020: 6th
• 2021: 7th
• 2022: 1st
Last cycle’s four-year average: 8.5
T4. LSU (AVERAGE RANK: 4.5)
• 2019: 5th
• 2020: 4th
• 2021: 3rd
• 2022: 6th
Last cycle’s four-year average: 6.8
2. GEORGIA (AVERAGE RANK: 2.5)
• 2019: 2nd
• 2020: 1st
• 2021: 4th
• 2022: 3rd
Last cycle’s four-year average: 2
1. ALABAMA (AVERAGE RANK: 1.5)
• 2019: 1st
• 2020: 2nd
• 2021: 1st
• 2022: 2nd
Last cycle’s four-year average: 2.3
Some data points from comparing 2022 recruiting numbers to last offseason, as well as how programs are trending on the recruiting trail:
• Auburn was jumped by Tennessee for the No. 6 spot, as the Tigers replaced their 2018 class (No. 12 nationally) with the 2022 haul (No. 21). The Volunteers also fell in terms of their four-year average, but only have one class outside the top 20 as compared to back-to-back for Auburn.
• Auburn's No. 7 class from 2020 continues to carry a lot of positive weight for the program's recruiting averages. Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M account for 16 of the conference's 20 top-10 classes over the past four years; Florida owns two, while Tennessee landed at No. 10 in 2020.
• Auburn is one of four teams to drop one spot from last year, joining South Carolina, LSU and Georgia. Mississippi State was the only program to fall multiple spots (No. 8 to No. 10).
• Harsin's first full-year recruiting class (2022) ranks No. 21 nationally. Over the past four cycles, there have been eight other SEC head coaches who entered their second season with their respective program. Harsin's is the third-best: Clark Lea's 2022 class is No. 46; Eli Drinkwitz's 2021 class was No. 29; Mike Leach's 2021 class was No. 25; Josh Heupel's 2022 class is No. 24; Sam Pittman's 2021 class was No. 24; and Shane Beamer's 2022 class is No. 23.
5
COMMENTS
• Only Dan Mullen (No. 9 in 2019) and Jimbo Fisher (No. 4 in 2019) had better classes than Harsin in their first full offseason with their programs.
• Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Missouri all moved up one spot.
• Despite moving up one cycle and leaving 2018 behind, not a single coach's recruiting efforts were eliminated. In 2019, the SEC returned all 14 of its head coaches.
• Alabama had an uncharacteristically low finish in 2018 (No. 5). But with that class pushed out of the four-year cycle, the Crimson Tide now own the top spot, after claiming either the No. 1 or No. 2 class nationally in each of the past four cycles.
• Despite the most talented recruiting class ever this year, per the 247Sports Composite, Texas A&M is tied with LSU for the No. 4 spot, with a rolling average of 4.5.