Scarbinksy Just Depressed Me

[Townhallsavoy]

http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2016/09/gus_malzahns_seat_may_not_be_a.html#incart_river_home_pop

The word of the day Tuesday at Auburn was "close." Gus Malzahn said it again and again to describe the state of his program after a 1-2 start with a visit from LSU dead ahead.

"The fact is, we're close," Malzahn said. "Matter of fact, we're real close, and we're gonna get this thing turned around."

Matter of fact, there's nothing matter of fact about the Auburn football program, but it was an unusually introspective visit with the media for the incredibly guarded head coach.

He said the Clemson and Texas A&M defeats "have probably hurt me worse than any of the others." He empathized with his frustrated fan base when he said, "I definitely feel their pain."

As rare and healthy as his introspection was, Malzahn couldn't answer the real questions his fans keep asking in louder and louder voices. How close are the Tigers - and to what?

Are they close enough to becoming a good football team that they can beat LSU and turn this season in the right direction? Or is playing hard and coming close against the better opponents on the schedule the best they can do?

Beyond the immediate issues, there's a bigger picture here that concerns Malzahn's future as head coach if "so close but so far" becomes the story for a second straight season. These things are always fluid and subject to change, but talk to people close to the program, and Malzahn's seat may not be quite as hot as you think.

The fans are angry, failing to fill every seat for the Texas A&M game and vacating many of the ones they did fill before the final horn, but it takes more than angry fans to force out a head coach.

It takes a strong athletics director. Or a strong president. Or a strong board of trustees. It takes a person or a core group of people with the vision to see the prospects aren't much better for the future and the stomach to make the necessary changes sooner rather than later.

Strong isn't the word to describe Auburn's current leadership, which makes it quite possible Malzahn will return in 2017, barring a disaster of 2012 proportions, even without considerable improvement.

All bets could be off should Auburn go 1-7 or 0-8 in the league and get embarrassed by Alabama. AD Jay Jacobs could feel the need to cut Malzahn loose to try to save his own job, as unappealing as the prospect of Jacobs running another coaching search may be to many Auburn fans.

But if this season goes 2012 bad and it becomes clear that Auburn needs a regime change in addition to a coaching change, the conditions simply aren't ripe for sweeping changes.

Auburn President Jay Gogue announcing his expected retirement may make the positions of Jacobs and Malzahn safer for several reasons. A presidential search will take time, and Gogue is expected to stay on the job until next July at the latest. Any expectation that a new president will ride to the rescue and clean house after this season, if necessary, is unrealistic.

It wouldn't be like the passive Gogue himself to fire Jacobs on his way out the door. Would Jacobs take it upon himself to dismiss Malzahn after putting himself on the line to hire him, support him and even sign him to a one-year contract extension despite the disappointment of last season?

Jacobs is certainly capable of an act of self-preservation, but imagine the outcry against him if Auburn were to swallow Malzahn's $8.95 million buyout after this season, a buyout that increased by $2,237,500 when Jacobs extended Malzahn's contract by a year despite last season's fall from No. 6 to 7-6.

The best-case scenario for Malzahn and Jacobs is for the football team to turn this season around by beating someone its own size, especially at home, an opportunity LSU presents Saturday.

At some point, close counts only in horseshoes and hand grenades, and too many respectable losses will blow up in a coach's face. Four years ago, Gene Chizik's fourth and last Auburn team lost its opener to Clemson, lost its SEC opener to Mississippi State and fell to 1-3 after losing 12-10 to LSU on the Plains.

That close call was fool's gold, providing no hint of the beatdowns to come. Malzahn's fourth Auburn team seems made of stronger stuff. Now would be a good time to prove it on the scoreboard.

I think he's dead on.

In order for Auburn to make a coaching change this year, it's going to have to get really bad on the field in a hurry.

Jacobs cannot make the next hire. So if we're going to fire Jacobs in order to hire a new head football coach, it's going to have to happen soon. You cannot fire Jacobs now because it would send the message to Malzahn that his job is over, and it simply hasn't gotten that bad yet even if we see the writing on the wall.

As the season progresses and gets closer to the end, if it starts to look like Jacobs needs to be a goner, it will be too close to the hiring season to find a new AD, get him brought up to speed, fire Malzahn, and perform a nationwide coaching search to bring in the best available candidate to lead this program where we want it to be.

Most likely what will happen is Gus goes 6-6 or 5-7 and it's obvious he isn't the man for the job. We ask him to resign, and I imagine he will say no. Jacobs is fired and the incoming president and BOT find a new AD. The end of the 2017 - barring some miraculous turnaround - is when we would be ready to find the right coach for Auburn.

[chinook]

The LSU game is make or break for Gus.

[Townhallsavoy]

The LSU game is make or break for Gus.

You really think a close loss to LSU would overcome all that stands in the way of firing Gus and hiring a new coach without Jacobs having a role in it?

[The Six]

It would take a major scandal AND 3-9. Stop trying to make it happen. It's not going to happen.

[RottenBottom]

You really think a close loss to LSU would overcome all that stands in the way of firing Gus and hiring a new coach without Jacobs having a role in it?

Its sad the program has fallen to bitching about stuff like this...

[Kaos]

Jacobs should never have been hired. 

[WiregrassTiger]

You really think a close loss to LSU would overcome all that stands in the way of firing Gus and hiring a new coach without Jacobs having a role in it?

i think he's trying to say that it is a big game.

[The Six]

Jacobs should never have been hired.

Pack extra plutonium.

[dallaswareagle]

You really think a close loss to LSU would overcome all that stands in the way of firing Gus and hiring a new coach without Jacobs having a role in it?

Two things:

Close loss, no, on Tuesday we will get the "we are even closer and we are going to work hard".

Blow out loss with offense not doing diddly squat and I think Gus loses the team. 3-9 is very possible. 

[Buzz Killington]

The LSU game is make or break for Gus.

Great observation

[Snaggletiger]

You guys may not agree with me, but I see this weekend as crucial in determining Gus' future. 

That article makes sense and I haven't for one second thought there's any chance there would be any changes until the season is over, if it even happens then.  But, I'll say one thing for Gus, even though you hate that these are the comments he's having to make, it's almost refreshing to hear what sounds like straight from the heart statements.  Every answer for 4 years has been, "Yeeeah, we're just trying to get better each week."

As for the "close" part, I'm with him 100%. I just don't think he sees the easy solution right in front of his face. 

[Godfather]

I just don't think he sees the easy solution right in front of his face.

Which is what worries me the most.

[Kaos]

As for the "close" part, I'm with him 100%.

Explain it to me. How are we close? 

Do the linemen need to hold their blocks just a little longer so the fullback can do a full revolution? 
Does Sean need to call an audible on every play signaled in from the sidelines?
Do we need to run the quadruple reverse pass instead of just the triple reverse pass? 

I've been on the genius Malzahn bus. Hell, I drove it for a while.  Once upon a time there was a guy who could see the whole field, figure out where the holes were and find a way to exploit them.  That guy was always one play ahead, moving quickly, taking advantage of all the things he could see even before they unfolded.  He enjoyed what he did, thought fast, talked fast, worked fast, reacted faster. 

When Marshall and Dismukes failed to connect on the snap and the drive against A&M failed to score the touchdown every single one of us -- him included -- knew was inevitable?  That guy died. 

The next week we scored seven fucking points against Georgia.  Seven. 

That guy flickered briefly to life against Alabama, but left so many scoring opportunities unfulfilled or only partially realized, that he began to question himself. 

The dead guy cropped up in the red zone with alarming frequency a year ago.  Even when we moved the ball, his butthole puckered in the red zone and he outthought himself.  He stopped believing in his own magic and began to panic coach.  Reacting after the fact, too slowly, hesitating when he once would have driven the dagger in and twisted it. 

Today's guy?  There is confusion where there once was decision. There is hesitation where there was once determination.  There are questions where there was once confidence.  There is doubt where there was once certainty. 

I can climb right back on the bus if the old guy resurrects himself.  But I've seen this many times in people who worked for and with me.  Something goes wrong, they overreact and start trying to change things that maybe didn't need changing, and then it spirals out of control to the point they can't ever get it back.  Hell, I've been there.  I've done it.  I've driven my own bus into a ditch and had to walk away. Thankfully didn't have the whole world looking at me when it happened.  I learned from it.  Didn't make the same mistakes in my next job. 

I think he's worked himself into a box from which there's no extraction.  Mark my words, the next place he goes, freed from this (self-inflicted) pressure, he will be a different and even better coach.  I still believe, though, it's too late for him here.  Thinking more, working more, studying more isn't going to get it done.  That's what he's doing though. 

[Buzz Killington]

Explain it to me. How are we close? 

Do the linemen need to hold their blocks just a little longer so the fullback can do a full revolution? 
Does Sean need to call an audible on every play signaled in from the sidelines?
Do we need to run the quadruple reverse pass instead of just the triple reverse pass? 

I've been on the genius Malzahn bus. Hell, I drove it for a while.  Once upon a time there was a guy who could see the whole field, figure out where the holes were and find a way to exploit them.  That guy was always one play ahead, moving quickly, taking advantage of all the things he could see even before they unfolded.  He enjoyed what he did, thought fast, talked fast, worked fast, reacted faster. 

When Marshall and Dismukes failed to connect on the snap and the drive against A&M failed to score the touchdown every single one of us -- him included -- knew was inevitable?  That guy died. 

The next week we scored seven fudgeing points against Georgia.  Seven. 

That guy flickered briefly to life against Alabama, but left so many scoring opportunities unfulfilled or only partially realized, that he began to question himself. 

The dead guy cropped up in the red zone with alarming frequency a year ago.  Even when we moved the ball, his butthole puckered in the red zone and he outthought himself.  He stopped believing in his own magic and began to panic coach.  Reacting after the fact, too slowly, hesitating when he once would have driven the dagger in and twisted it. 

Today's guy?  There is confusion where there once was decision. There is hesitation where there was once determination.  There are questions where there was once confidence.  There is doubt where there was once certainty. 

I can climb right back on the bus if the old guy resurrects himself.  But I've seen this many times in people who worked for and with me.  Something goes wrong, they overreact and start trying to change things that maybe didn't need changing, and then it spirals out of control to the point they can't ever get it back.  Hell, I've been there.  I've done it.  I've driven my own bus into a ditch and had to walk away. Thankfully didn't have the whole world looking at me when it happened.  I learned from it.  Didn't make the same mistakes in my next job. 

I think he's worked himself into a box from which there's no extraction.  Mark my words, the next place he goes, freed from this (self-inflicted) pressure, he will be a different and even better coach.  I still believe, though, it's too late for him here.  Thinking more, working more, studying more isn't going to get it done.  That's what he's doing though.

Truf.  100% Truf.

The "old" Gus would call the bubble screen 5-6 times, just to set up the double move deep ball.  The "new" Gus just keeps calling the bubble screen...even when he knows the opposing cornerbacks are camping out in his backfield.

The old Gus would run the read option...maybe calling the handoff 20 times in a row.  But on that 21st time, you'd better be ready to see the QB pull it down and throw it downfield just before he gets to the line of scrimmage.  The new Gus just keeps telling the QB to hand it off.

[Snaggletiger]

Which is what worries me the most.

And it should. As for K's question, my solution is simply go back and install the system you ran with Chris Todd in 09'.  It's not anything drastic at all.  You just scrap the true read option and let the pro style QB do what suits his abilities best.  Again, Sean White is running the same offense Malzahn installed for Nick Marshall.  That's luda-chris.

 

[Snaggletiger]

Truf.  100% Truf.

The "old" Gus would call the bubble screen 5-6 times, just to set up the double move deep ball.  The "new" Gus just keeps calling the bubble screen...even when he knows the opposing cornerbacks are camping out in his backfield.

The old Gus would run the read option...maybe calling the handoff 20 times in a row.  But on that 21st time, you'd better be ready to see the QB pull it down and throw it downfield just before he gets to the line of scrimmage.  The new Gus just keeps telling the QB to hand it off.

And why is that?  Because Sean White is NOT Nick Marshall.  That's my whole point.  He has to hand it off because he presents zero read option running threat in that offense. 

[Buzz Killington]

And why is that?  Because Sean White is NOT Nick Marshall.  That's my whole point.  He has to hand it off because he presents zero read option running threat in that offense.

I agree with what you said in the last post.  He needs to let Sean do his thing in the RIGHT offense.  Don't know if he has become paranoid and sees clowns everywhere or he just doesn't trust anyone anymore, but something has done happened to his medulla oblongotta.

[dallaswareagle]

Explain it to me. How are we close? 

Do the linemen need to hold their blocks just a little longer so the fullback can do a full revolution? 
Does Sean need to call an audible on every play signaled in from the sidelines?
Do we need to run the quadruple reverse pass instead of just the triple reverse pass? 

I've been on the genius Malzahn bus. Hell, I drove it for a while.  Once upon a time there was a guy who could see the whole field, figure out where the holes were and find a way to exploit them.  That guy was always one play ahead, moving quickly, taking advantage of all the things he could see even before they unfolded.  He enjoyed what he did, thought fast, talked fast, worked fast, reacted faster. 

When Marshall and Dismukes failed to connect on the snap and the drive against A&M failed to score the touchdown every single one of us -- him included -- knew was inevitable?  That guy died. 

The next week we scored seven fucking points against Georgia.  Seven. 

That guy flickered briefly to life against Alabama, but left so many scoring opportunities unfulfilled or only partially realized, that he began to question himself. 

The dead guy cropped up in the red zone with alarming frequency a year ago.  Even when we moved the ball, his butthole puckered in the red zone and he outthought himself.  He stopped believing in his own magic and began to panic coach.  Reacting after the fact, too slowly, hesitating when he once would have driven the dagger in and twisted it. 

Today's guy?  There is confusion where there once was decision. There is hesitation where there was once determination.  There are questions where there was once confidence.  There is doubt where there was once certainty. 

I can climb right back on the bus if the old guy resurrects himself.  But I've seen this many times in people who worked for and with me.  Something goes wrong, they overreact and start trying to change things that maybe didn't need changing, and then it spirals out of control to the point they can't ever get it back.  Hell, I've been there.  I've done it.  I've driven my own bus into a ditch and had to walk away. Thankfully didn't have the whole world looking at me when it happened.  I learned from it.  Didn't make the same mistakes in my next job. 

I think he's worked himself into a box from which there's no extraction.  Mark my words, the next place he goes, freed from this (self-inflicted) pressure, he will be a different and even better coach.  I still believe, though, it's too late for him here.  Thinking more, working more, studying more isn't going to get it done.  That's what he's doing though.

Its like we see it and you say it.   

After leaving Auburn in a shit stain path of mediocrity, his next stop will be back down to lower tier ball where maybe he can get his shit together. With a mess load of money and Auburn football trying to recover.

[Kaos]

I agree with what you said in the last post.  He needs to let Sean do his thing in the RIGHT offense.  Don't know if he has become paranoid and sees clowns everywhere or he just doesn't trust anyone anymore, but something has done happened to his medulla oblongotta.

When was the last time he looked like he was having fun? 

[Buzz Killington]

When was the last time he looked like he was having fun?

The first half of the 2014 season.

Anyone care to remember back as far as 2011?
Remember how the offense was clicking throughout 2010 and into 2011...until the second half at Clemson?
We all assumed it was Chizik telling Gus to tap his brakes.  I have to wonder now though, if he didn't have a mini schizo attack there and a full onset attack after the aTm game in 2014.