Can Trump win?

[Townhallsavoy]

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_57dbecd4e4b0071a6e06801e?

They mad

And psychotic.

[GH2001]

And psychotic.

THS,

Good read and analysis here by Larry Sabato - one of my favorites to follow. He has had the best accuracy rating since 2004 with these races. Rarely does his miss. Puts a lot into what he predicts and does his own polling. I put his and Scott Rasmussen's work above any polls pedaled by the media.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

And before anyone accuses him of bias, he actually worked with a democrat politician in his limited time working with political campaigns. He seems as neutral as it gets. Also predicted Obama in 12 when many had Romney practically moving into the White House a month before the election. He's not saying Trump will win or even is winning, but he is saying its very close. Much closer than it was. And trending in Trump's direction. Its the trajectory you have to keep your eye on with this one. If it continues, Trump will turn more "lean demo" states to toss ups, or toss ups to "lean gop".

In July 2008, Crystal Ball correctly projected that Barack Obama would win the presidency in a near-landslide.[11] Sabato predicted a 364–174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.[12] The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008 being Obama 365 and McCain 173. (It did not predict an Obama win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district.) Crystal Ball also accurately predicted 100% of all 35 Senate races, and 11 gubernatorial races correctly.

In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives.[14] The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans.[15] The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.[16]

In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats.[17]

[The Prowler]

Almost all of these polls have Trump within five points or less.  Add the fact that the media has put such a stigma on supporting Trump leads me to believe he will get more votes than the projections suggest.  When somebody calls to ask questions the average person -- because of the media bias toward Hillary and the suggestion that Trump supporters are troglodytes --  is likely to be loathe to admit that they're going to vote for him.

The polls have been wrong more in this cycle than I can ever remember.

[Kaos]

You can't be my defensive coordinator.  Too dense. 

If you don't understand that the first quote means the polls are skewed by media bias and (drumroll) therefore WRONG then you can't make calls on my defense.

[The Prowler]

You can't be my defensive coordinator.  Too dense. 

If you don't understand that the first quote means the polls are skewed by media bias and (drumroll) therefore WRONG then you can't make calls on my defense.

I was right...told y'all. All the haters can go suck a bag of dicks, eat a big plate of dog shit, and then move to another Country!!!!

I think it'll be Donald Trump. Gonna be interesting to see what he can do.

#BoomAllOverYourFace

[GH2001]

I was right...told y'all. All the haters can go suck a bag of dicks, eat a big plate of dog shit, and then move to another Country!!!!

#BoomAllOverYourFace

You said Rasmussen was as wrong as anything. But I also put a lot of stock in sabado and 538. Everything was all over the place in this one. Only constants it seemed were ibd and la times.

[The Prowler]

You said Rasmussen was as wrong as anything. But I also put a lot of stock in sabado and 538. Everything was all over the place in this one. Only constants it seemed were ibd and la times.

I would trust Sabannado over Rasmussen. The TigersX polls was right too.

[GH2001]

I would trust Sabannado over Rasmussen.

In 2012.

But in 16 Rasmussen whipped his ass. I like them both. And they are good at what they do. Just shows the craziness of this election cycle.

[bottomfeeder]

Screw the polls, I have the same heart as most Americans, pissed off and acting out of that anger towards the DC crowd the only way I can. I thank the DoD for the internets.