I'm being generous in assuming all the typical red and blue strongholds stay put. Larry Sabado and Scott Rasmussen seem to think they will. And their polls are as good as gold historically. As Dallas said (man I really hate that guy. Stupid commoner) most polls are skewed. And this also can skew the RCP average. In red states some think Trump is close in like Georgia or Arizona, he isn't. It could be before its all over but I don't think he is right now. I really think all the red and blue states are going to stay put. And for every red state that has a chance to turn blue, there is an equal and opposite blue state that is closer to being red than usual. In the end it will come down to which of these two can pull Ohio and Florida. The rest are nice to haves. Iowa and North Carolina certainly have their place but are not near as critical of a requirement.
Another factor is that so far (and this bewildered me with Indiana)Trump has typically over performed the polls in states he should have been close in or lost (aside from Texas - Cruz).
I do agree that her path is certainly easier though. But that has been true for the last 50 years - since LBJ implemented great society.
The polls have been wrong more in this cycle than I can ever remember.
There were states where we saw Clinton predicted to romp and then Bernie either won, or she cheated him, or it was way closer than predicted. There were states where the polls said Cruz was going to push Trump (or Rubio, or whoever) and then Trump crapped all over their heads.
Almost all of these polls have Trump within five points or less. Add the fact that the media has put such a stigma on supporting Trump leads me to believe he will get more votes than the projections suggest. When somebody calls to ask questions the average person -- because of the media bias toward Hillary and the suggestion that Trump supporters are troglodytes -- is likely to be loathe to admit that they're going to vote for him.
I don't think there's much chance he loses Georgia. Or Arizona. There's a good chance he wins Ohio and Florida. I'm not sure about PA. I think Mich, Wisc, NC and NV go his way too by the time it's over.
That still may not be enough.
This is -- and was from the day she entered the race -- hers to lose. And I STILL contend that Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Carson or any of them would be worse off than Trump. He will energize a rarely utilized group of voters. Obama was able to draw the idealistic (moronic) young, hippie, douchey, lesby, crowd. Hillary is not going to pull nearly the same level of that demographic. For that reason and that reason only, Trump has a chance. He's the only one who ever did.
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