Todd McShay and that other douche bags usually get all of their bottom 1st round picks wrong. They don't know about any Draft Day trades which will have a Domino effect most of the time. Hell, they've listed guys add 2nd or 3rd rounders and those guys do good at their Pro Day or NFL Combine and they skyrocket into the Top 10...which causes another Domino effect. Then you have teams that like to trade their lower first round picks just to get more picks later, that causes a Domino effect...then you have a team like the Saints that trade their entire Draft picks, just to pick up one guy.
Low 1st round projection, most of the time, means mid-2nd round to mid-3rd round...happens every year (top 5-10 players drop down into the lower 1st round picks, which pushes the lower 1st round projected players back).
Another thing is his size, what will he play in the NFL DE, Stand up DE, OLB, Drop down OLB, MLB, etc?