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Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft

Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« on: January 19, 2011, 04:50:55 PM »
This is not just a list of who will go where, but rather, it is a list of who will do what with whom in the future. 

10.  Nick Fairley will not be the next Ndamukong Suh, but he will be a productive player for the Carolina Panthers. 

Fairley came on strong in his junior season to be the most dominant force in college football - at least, on the defensive side of the ball.  While Cam Newton had to rely on receivers catching the ball and linemen making good blocks, Fairley often made game changing plays by himself.  His ability to shed blockers is unmatched and his overly aggressive style - while often criticized - makes him one of the most disruptive forces in the NFL from day one.  If anyone deserves the ridiculous draft contract for a rookie, it's Nick Fairley.

However, Fairley shows serious maturity issues and will also be an instant fine-bomb in the NFL.  With the Panthers unable to fix all of their problems going into next season, it will be imperative that Fairley not cause any unwanted penalties.  Fairley is very rough with quarterbacks.  NFL refs are going to be very rough with Fairley.

9.  Marcell Dareus will be forgotten about with the Buffalo Bills. 

The Bills could draft a quarterback, but they have more glaring needs on the defensive line.  Look for Dareus to be drafted too high at #3 after a weak combine performance.  He is borderline overweight and has the potential to show up needing to shred a few pounds.  While I believe Dareus will be a productive player in the NFL, the Bills will not be a primetime team and Dareus won't have the impact needed to garner the national spotlight. 

8.  The SEC will reign supreme - again - in the NFL Draft while the South will look even better.

The top five picks could potentially come from the SEC.  The top ten could potentially come from the South.  Some players in this draft have more potential than any pick in the last 2-3 years.  All of those players are from the South.

AJ Greene to Julio Jones to DaQuan Bowers to Cam Newton to Nick Fairley to Patrick Peterson.  All six of those guys could be on the pro bowl roster in 3-4 years. 

7.  There won't be a right "fit" for Ryan Mallett on any roster.

Mallett folds under pressure.  We've seen it twice against Alabama.  We saw it once against Ohio State.  When the big dogs start rushing the backfield and the game is on the line, Mallett folds. 

The good teams have solid, franchise starting quarterbacks.  They won't have the need nor the time to help Mallett transition to the NFL. 

The bad teams have poor, shakey offensive lines.  They won't have the ability to let him come into his own.

Mallett will be a name that sticks around - much like Rex Grossman - but he'll never be the go to quarterback for any team. 

6.  Da'Quan Bowers will be an NFL Defensive MVP at least once in his career.

A physical freak?  Check.  Finesse in his style of play?  Check.  Tremendous strength at the snap of the ball?  Check.  The death of a close friend with some of his last words being to work your ass off?  Check.

Bowers has the body of Julius Peppers and now seemingly has the drive of Ray Lewis.  I think Marvin Lewis understands that Carson Palmer is not the answer in Cinncinnati and that defense wins championships.  He'll begin building his defense on the new anchor - Da'Quan Bowers.  Look for Bowers to be disruptive enough to shut down the Cleveland offense led by an inexperienced quarterback and maybe steal a victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Bengals could get to 8-8 or maybe even 9-7 simply with the play of a phenom like Bowers.

5.  Mark Ingram will not be the next Emmitt Smith. 

Ingram is a stocky, strong, and quick running back and is a prototype of what the NFL wants in a 1st and 2nd down back. 

He is physical at the point of attack.  He is fast in the open field.  He knows how to make guys miss.

But something seems missing.  Is it heart?  Is it drive? 

He strikes me as the type that will let money go to his head.  He strikes me as the type that when the Miami Dolphins can't get it together to be a good football team, he'll quit.  Like he did against Auburn in 2009.  Like he did against South Carolina in 2010.  Like he did against Auburn in 2010. 

4. Julio Jones will be a better NFL receiver than AJ Greene.

Julio Jones is projected to be drafted by the St. Louis Rams.  AJ Greene could go to the Cinncinatti Bengals, the Buffalo Bills, or the Cleveland Browns.  Advantage?  Julio. 

Julio Jones will be catching passes from Sam Bradford.  Greene?  Palmer, Who Knows?, or McCoy.  Advantage?  Julio.

Julio Jones will have the benefit of running routes against a defense set up to shut down Steven Jackson. 

Julio Jones weighs almost 20 pounds more than Greene and possesses tremendous speed.

Julio Jones is a primadonna, but he still has the drive and heart to be a great football player like T.O. 

Julio Jones has been waiting three years to show how good he really is, and I predict that he will be successful. 

3.  The rich get richer in New England.

The Patriots, as of right now, have two 1st round picks and it's rumored they may trade up with those picks or add another 1st round pick by trading their earlier draft picks. 

Rob Rang of CBS sports predicts that New England will draft Jake Locker (or another high-potential QB) in order to set up a good replacement for Tom Brady.  Brady, at 34 years old, has 4-5 years left at the most unless he goes Brett Favre on us.  What better decision would there be than to take a good, young rookie and mold him with the help of Brady's tutorage? 

Even if the Patriots don't go that route, they went 14-2 last season and now have the ability to fill holes or add depth at any position they would like. 

2.  Patrick Peterson is the next Deion Sanders. 

Peterson is a lock down corner.  We know this as an obvious statement of fact.  What's not so obvious is his return ability.  While heralded as being one of the best in the country last season, it was his first season to really be the main return guy for LSU.  How good will he be once he gets a few more seasons of experience?

More importantly, Peterson has coverage skills that mimic Revis of the New York Jets.  He's tremendously strong with blazing speed.  Some have predicted that Peterson will be one of the top 5 fastest guys at the combine/in the draft.  He also has three seasons of experience in the SEC where he successfully defended Julio Jones, AJ Greene, and Greg Childs. 

Look for Peterson to immediately be the best cornerback on the Denver Broncos. Look for Peterson to make the pro bowl as a rookie.  Look for Peterson to get a few returns. 

Look for Peterson on the Hall of Fame ballot of 2030 as long as he doesn't get injured.

1.  Cam Newton will be overhyped.

Where will he go? 

The Tennessee Titans?  Oh, how Nashville will twang if they can get a guy with the talent of Vince Young combined with the coolness of Drew Brees.  The Titans feel as if they are one quarterback away from competing deep into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers?  Oh, how DJ, Stephanie, and Michelle will swoon if they can watch a guy with better legs than Steve Young and a stronger arm than Joe Montana play for their team.  Like the Titans, the 49ers feel as if they are one quarterback away from winning the SEC West with ease.  With big receiver targets in Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, Newton would have a nice transition.

The Minnesota Vikings?  Oh, how the Metrodome will keep its roof on tight if the Vikings can get a big play quarterback like Cam Newton.  The speed of Joe Webb.  The arm of Brett Favre.  The excitement of Percy Harvin.  The phenom of Adrian Petersen.  The Vikings could also be one quarterback away from competing in the playoffs. 

What's the similar problem with these three scenarios?  Three scenarios that are likely to happen?  They all rely on Cam Newton to lead them to the playoffs in his rookie season. 

Many of the teams targeting Newton are decent teams with weak quarterback play.  The problem is that most NFL rookies are terrible their first season.  They often cause losses not earn wins.  They often make mistakes not highlight reels.  They often sit or share playing time their first or second seasons. 

Newton needs time to grow, and unless he gets picked up by an organization ready to help a player a like Newton, he's going to be overhyped.  And overhyped leads to a hard fall. 

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The Guy That Knows Nothing of Hyperbole

Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2011, 04:59:49 PM »
Quote
Like the Titans, the 49ers feel as if they are one quarterback away from winning the NFC West with ease.

My high school team plus Cam Newton could win the NFC West with ease.
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You meet a man on the Oregon Trail. He tells you his name is Terry. You laugh and tell him: "That's a girl's name!" Terry shoots you. You have died of dissin' Terry.

Tiger Wench

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Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2011, 05:33:09 PM »
What is it about bammer guys coming into the combine overweight?  Kind of poor planning IMO - like showing up to a serious job interview in jorts with your tramp stamp showing and your nose ring still in place.  Nobody outside bammer fans give a shit who you used to be, and as of the moment you declared, you are a used to be until you officially get to be somebody again...

I agree about Cam - the expectation level is the biggest thing that might prevent his success in the NFL.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2011, 05:34:35 PM by Tiger Wench »
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RWS

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Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2011, 05:47:42 PM »
What is it about bammer guys coming into the combine overweight?  Kind of poor planning IMO - like showing up to a serious job interview in jorts with your tramp stamp showing and your nose ring still in place.  Nobody outside bammer fans give a shit who you used to be, and as of the moment you declared, you are a used to be until you officially get to be somebody again...

I agree about Cam - the expectation level is the biggest thing that might prevent his success in the NFL.
MD is 6'4 and around 315-320. Alabama usually uses a little larger linemen to hopefully create double teams, then let the LBs make plays. Thats just how our defense is designed, so it wouldn't surprise me if most of the linemen we put into the draft would be called "overweight". MD isn't a Terrence Cody type overweight, where he had to lose like 60 lbs and work like hell to keep it off. I think MD's weight would be very manageable by an NFL program. TC managed to make it on a two deep rotation in the NFL, FWIW.

I agree on Julio. Not the best route runner in the world, but he is big, athletic, and fast. Supposedly he was laser timed last week at a sub 4.5 40 where he is working out in preparation for the combine. If that is true, that's just one more positive for him. AJ Green will do well in the NFL, but as far as short term goes, I think Julio gets more consideration due to size. Green isn't quite as athletic as Julio, but is a better route runner. It just depends on the offense really. Julio would do better in a run oriented offense, and AJ would probably do better in a pass oriented offense. Both very good players. 
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JR4AU

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Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2011, 05:51:59 PM »
Fairley:  I don't think a DT can take over a game in the NFL like in college.  He'll be good.  Penalties?  Rest assured they'll have a long talk with Fairley about that before he ever steps on the field.  I doubt that will be an issue. 

Ingram:  Lots depends on where he lands.  He's a prototypical zone running back.  To reach his potential he needs carries, and needs to be on a team that runs primarily zone.  He's not really an "I back". 

Julio or AJ:  WR is really hit and miss...lots depends on who is throwing to them.   Work ethic and attitude are huge factors.  I don't know anything about either of them in that respect.   Both have all the physical tools.
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GH2001

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Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2011, 12:13:20 AM »
I think Julio gets more consideration due to size.

Green isn't quite as athletic as Julio, but is a better route runner. It just depends on the offense really.

Agree on the first one.

Disagree on the second one.

Ive seen very few WR's as athletic as AJ. I saw that little bastard in person this year at JHS. Dude can leap out of the stadium. Its rare to see a WR go up for a ball like he does and just grab it. He's an acrobat playing WR. Julio is just a pure physical specimen. He looks more like a weight lifter playing WR.
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WDE

Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2011, 11:28:33 AM »
Julio is just a pure physical specimen. He looks more like a weight lifter playing WR.

David Boston anyone?  Hopefully Julio has a better head than that nut job did.  Does anyone remember the story about Boston asking the coaches in Arizona to tell the Defense during training camp to not hit him in the chest as he had just gotten his nipples pierced?

Quote
Fairley:  I don't think a DT can take over a game in the NFL like in college.


I wouldn't be surprised if a 3-4 team drafts him and makes him a strong side end a-la Richard Seymour.  He was a DT at Georgia and played end and tackle in the NFL.  They have similar size and skills.
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You meet a man on the Oregon Trail. He tells you his name is Terry. You laugh and tell him: "That's a girl's name!" Terry shoots you. You have died of dissin' Terry.

Tiger Wench

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Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2011, 12:04:16 PM »
David Boston anyone?  Hopefully Julio has a better head than that nut job did.  Does anyone remember the story about Boston asking the coaches in Arizona to tell the Defense during training camp to not hit him in the chest as he had just gotten his nipples pierced?

I work with his sister... she is a lawyer and was his agent.  Oh, the stories...
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JR4AU

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Re: Top Ten Predictions of the 2011 NFL Draft
« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2011, 12:23:12 PM »


I wouldn't be surprised if a 3-4 team drafts him and makes him a strong side end a-la Richard Seymour.  He was a DT at Georgia and played end and tackle in the NFL.  They have similar size and skills.

Could be, don't know if he fits that skill set.  He may.
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