CFN BCS Analysis

[djsimp]

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1017217.html%20bcs

2010 BCS Analysis

Week 3 ... Oct. 31   

- 2010 CFN Rankings
- 2010 Harris Poll
- 2010 Coaches' Poll
- 2010 AP Rankings

- BCS Analysis Week One | Week Two

BCS Top 25
- Expanded BCS Rankings

1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. TCU
4. Boise State
5. Utah
6. Alabama
7. Nebraska
8. Oklahoma
9. Wisconsin
10. LSU
11. Ohio State
12. Missouri
13. Stanford
14. Michigan State
15. Arizona
16. Iowa
17. Oklahoma State
18. Arkansas
19. South Carolina
20. Mississippi State
21. Baylor
22. Virginia Tech
23. Nevada
24. Florida State
25. NC State

The Basic Rules

- The BCS games that lose their natural tie-ins to the BCS Championship get the first choices of at-large teams. For example, the SEC champion goes to the Sugar Bowl, but if that team finishes No. 1 in the final BCS rankings, then the Sugar Bowl gets its first choice of at-large teams. After those slots are filled, the pecking order goes Orange, Fiesta, Sugar in the selection process.

- Notre Dame is in the BCS if it finishes in the top eight, and it can take the Big East's slot in the Champs Sports Bowl. - Some bowls ignore the final standings as far as the seedings and pairings.

- The champion of Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, the Sun Belt, or the WAC will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if one of the teams finishes in the top 12 of the final BCS standings or if one is in the top 16 and ranked ahead of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls. However, no more than one team gets an automatic bid, so the BCS bowls don’t have to take both Boise State and TCU if they’re both ranked in the top five.

- To be eligible for an at-large bid, a team has to have won at least nine regular season games and it has to finish in the top 14.

- The first time from now until 2014 that the Rose Bowl loses a team to the national championship, it has to take an eligible team from one of the non-BCS conferences.
 
Utah and Nevada.

Those are the only two teams in the BCS top 25 with a worse strength of schedule so far than Oregon's, yet the Ducks managed to move ahead of Auburn into the No. 1 spot. It doesn't matter, though. In this race, the only thing that matters is finishing in the top two, and Oregon and Auburn are the only two teams that control their own destiny. This week. it's all about TCU.

Last week, TCU was ranked fourth behind Boise State by a paper-thin margin, and then moved up into three this week and will only solidify its position if it can beat Utah this week. And for the Utes, if they can beat TCU, they'll likely rocket up into a top three spot, but that's a question mark for next week. For now, several things shook out after this weekend.

Michigan State is now out of the national title picture after getting blasted by Iowa, and Missouri exited after losing at Nebraska. Each is still deep in the chase for their respective conference titles, but neither one has a realistic shot of getting into the BCS top two.

In great shape right now is Alabama who checks in at No. 6 and has high profile dates left at LSU and against Auburn. By winning out and getting to the SEC title game, everything will be set up perfectly to knock out one of the two likely non-AQ unbeatens from a top two spot. The respect will be there, and there will be some sentiment from the voters that the defending national champion deserves its shot after dealing with such a brutal schedule.

Also lurking is Wisconsin at nine with wins over Ohio State and Iowa on the résumé, but the only game of note left on the slate is against Michigan, while Ohio State gets a chance to make a big statement against Iowa on the road, along with the annual game against the Wolverines. The ultimate tie-breaker in the Big Ten is the BCS ranking, so it's possible there's a 2008-like Big 12 South scenario depending on what happens in the Ohio State-Iowa game. If the Buckeyes, Badgers, and Spartans all win out, Michigan State will go to the Rose Bowl by beating UW. If Iowa beats Ohio State, and Wisconsin and Michigan State also win out, the Rose Bowl will go to the team ranked highest in the BCS rankings, and that's UW at the moment.

Nebraska is also in the mix as the home fiasco against Texas apparently doesn't matter. Ranked seventh after beating Missouri, the Huskers will finish no lower than the top five by winning out, and they have a shot to make a run for the BCS Championship if they can roll over Oklahoma (if it is OU) in the Big 12 title game.

Interesting aspects from the current rankings:

- The computers LOVE Missouri, taking into account the opening day win over Illinois along with the win over Oklahoma. Ranked fourth by the computers and put in the top five by five of the six formulas, Mizzou's No. 12 ranking shows how much the human polls matter. If the people don't like you, you're screwed no matter what the hard numbers might say.

- Talk about falling off the map, Michigan State is fifth last week, and now it's 14th, and Missouri dropped from sixth to 12th. 

- NC State snuck into the top 25 to give the ACC three teams on the list. However, they're all ranked 22nd or lower.

- Five Big 12 teams are in the top 21. The SEC, Big Ten, Pac 10 and Big 12 account for 18 of the top 21 spots. That's why it's so hard to give any credit to the non-AQ stars.

The Big Winners: TCU (4th to 3rd), Utah (8th to 5th), Nebraska (14th to 7th)
The Big Losers: Boise State (3rd to 4th), Missouri (6th to 12th), Michigan State (5th to 14th)

1. Oregon Score: .9777

The schedule stinks, the computers are slightly skeptical, but the humans like the big, shiny numbers and that's enough to push the Ducks into No. 1. One or two, it doesn't matter as long as they're in the top two, and they'll end up playing for the national title as long as they win out. The spot will only be solidified with big games ahead against Arizona, Oregon State, and Cal, that'll only make the computers happier. 

Predicted Wins: Washington, Arizona, at Oregon State
Predicted Losses:  at California
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Rose
Toughest Remaining Tests: at California, Arizona, at Oregon State

2. Auburn Score: .95991

What does it say that every single computer formula ... EVERY ... ONE ... has Auburn No. 1? The humans have the Tigers No. 2, and so down they drop after a week in the top spot. They're not going to go down at all in the computer rankings with nasty battles ahead, and there's a chance to move into No. 1 again by winning out and with a win over Alabama at Alabama. However, it was a big drop and now the Tigers are far behind the Ducks. They're not within ten miles of TCU and are completely safe for a national title shot by winning out.

Predicted Wins: Chattanooga, Georgia
Predicted Losses: at Alabama
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
Toughest Remaining Tests: Georgia, at Alabama

3. TCU Score: .8911

Alright, Horned Frogs, you've got your opening. If TCU beats Utah and wins out, several pollsters will jump on board and a No. 3 spot in the human polls might be there with a chance to be in the top two if and when Auburn or Oregon fails. The computers are believers with a No. 3 ranking, and No. 2 according to two formulas, and the respect will only grow if, and it's a huge if, the team is still unbeaten next week at this time. 

Predicted Wins: at Utah, San Diego State, at New Mexico
Predicted Losses:
Predicted Final Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: Sugar
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Utah, San Diego State

4. Boise State Score: .8824

This was on the horizon. TCU was lurking last week, and now they move ahead and the Broncos have to now hope for a little bit of luck to get back into range. The humans are giving the Broncos credit, putting them third, and the computers are even on board with a No. 5 overall ranking, but there isn't going to be a lot of love and respect out there if it's a choice between Boise State and a one-loss Alabama. However, with interesting games against Nevada and Hawaii ahead, there might be a few chances for respect.

Predicted Wins: Hawaii, at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-0
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: Hawaii, at Nevada

5. Utah Score: .7318

Consider this a No. 3 ranking. If Utah beats TCU next week, it'll slid up into the No. 3 spot on on the doorstep of playing for the national title. The schedule has been miserable, ranking among the worst in the BCS Top 25, but the respect is there ... sort of. The humans have the Utes sixth and Bama fifth, but the computers are giving just enough love to boost the ranking. Still a mile behind Boise State, though, it'll take a bit of a push to move up, even with a win over the Horned Frogs. It'll happen, though.

Predicted Wins: Tat Notre Dame, at San Diego State, BYU
Predicted Losses: TCU
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Las Vegas
Toughest Remaining Tests: TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State 

6. Alabama Score: .7185

It should say something that the computers have no respect whatsoever for what the Tide has done, with a No. 15 ranking and only one formula putting them in the top eight. The humans are blindly giving the respect because it's Alabama and the brand name is there. Call this a ranking based on what might happen. With the nastiest remaining schedule of any national title contender, the Tide is being put high in advance of expected wins. If they lose to LSU or Auburn, they'll move down, obviously, but if they win, look out. 

Predicted Wins: at LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia State, Auburn, SEC Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-1
Predicted Bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest Remaining Tests: at LSU, Auburn

7. Nebraska  Score: .6869

This seems a bit extreme. The Huskers get a ton of respect from the computers with a No. 6 ranking, mostly because of the win over Missouri, but the humans aren’t on board. Call this a case of the human pollsters having a more objective memory than the wires as the home loss to Texas looks worse and worse. The Huskers should win out against Iowa State, Kansas, Texas A&M and Colorado, and if they win the Big 12 Championship, they’ll be right there on the doorstep of the top two. the computers for

Predicted Wins: at Iowa State, Kansas , at Texas A&M, Colorado
Predicted Losses: Big 12 Championship (Oklahoma)
Predicted Final Record: 11-2
Predicted Bowl: Cotton
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Texas A&M

8. Oklahoma  Score: .6849

Moving up one notch a week after tumbling down the rankings, the Sooners are back on the radar and have the potential to move up more than anyone else in the Big 12. With several interesting tests ahead, if the they come out roaring like they did against Colorado, they'll be in the top five in the human polls soon, and if they beat Nebraska (if it's Nebraska) for the Big 12 title. they'll battle Alabama (possibly) for the honor of being the top ranked one-loss team.

Predicted Wins: at Texas A&M, Texas Tech, at Baylor, at Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 12-1
Predicted Bowl: Fiesta
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Baylor, at Oklahoma State

9. Wisconsin  Score: .6740

Sort of hosed by the computers, Wisconsin can claim to have the two best wins of any team in the top 25 beating Ohio State and Iowa at Iowa. But that's it. The rest of the schedule should be a piece of cake, which is a problem in the national title chase, but should turn out to be a plus for the Rose Bowl hunt. It might be this simple; if the Badgers don't choke, and they'll be heavily favored in the rest of their games, they'll probably go to the Rose Bowl if Iowa beats Ohio State and they'll probably go to the Orange if the Buckeyes win in Iowa City.

Predicted Wins: at Purdue, Indiana, at Michigan, Northwestern
Predicted Losses: None
Predicted Final Record: 11-1
Predicted Bowl: Orange
Toughest Remaining Tests: at Michigan, Northwestern

10. LSU  Score: .6540

There's a good chance that LSU is in better shape than anyone outside of the top five. If LSU wins out, including a win over Alabama, then there's a chance to win the South. Auburn will have to lose twice, but the Tigers could be in the mix for the national title with a bit of luck. At the very least, by winning out, they're going to a BCS game. The computers like them, and the humans will, too, with tough wins over the final month.

Predicted Wins: ULM, Ole Miss, at Arkansas
Predicted Losses: Alabama
Predicted Final Record: 10-2
Predicted Bowl: Outback
Toughest Remaining Tests: Alabama, at Arkansas

In Range:
11. Ohio State Score: 0.6127
12. Missouri  Score: 0.5940
13. Stanford   Score: 0.5780
14. Michigan State Score: 0.5136
15. Arizona    Score: 0.4936
16. Iowa  Score: 0.4291
17. Oklahoma State   Score: 0.3868
18. Arkansas    Score: 0.2944
19. South Carolina   Score: 0.2725
20. Mississippi State   Score: 0.2428

[Saniflush]

More love for the mouth breathers.  You know I gotta say after sleeping on this I'm ok with it.  Gotta say them being favored should help keep our guys grounded if they need any.

[djsimp]

More love for the mouth breathers.  You know I gotta say after sleeping on this I'm ok with it.  Gotta say them being favored should help keep our guys grounded if they need any.

Ducks are getting that love for sure. I was thinking the same, especially after reading some of the comments from the players. I think this has only motivated them even more. Thats fine with me.
More motivation = more wins

[GH2001]

More love for the mouth breathers.  You know I gotta say after sleeping on this I'm ok with it.  Gotta say them being favored should help keep our guys grounded if they need any.

This man speaks nuthin but troof

[Plainsman94]

How does this guy state that Alabama is being given "blind" respect in one breath, then turn around and predict they will beat Auburn in the next?

Alabama is getting benefit of "expected" wins?  What!

Shows how ridiculous the whole polling thing is.  They ought to get rid of the human polls all together.

[Saniflush]

How does this guy state that Alabama is being given "blind" respect in one breath, then turn around and predict they will beat Auburn in the next?

Alabama is getting benefit of "expected" wins?  What!

Shows how ridiculous the whole polling thing is.  They ought to get rid of the human polls all together.

Don't think you will get arguments on that from anyone here.

[GH2001]

Don't think you will get arguments on that from anyone here.

Listen to him .....he went to college and still gets lots of pussy.

[djsimp]

This man speaks nuthin but troof

Only when he feels like it.

[djsimp]

How does this guy state that Alabama is being given "blind" respect in one breath, then turn around and predict they will beat Auburn in the next?

Alabama is getting benefit of "expected" wins?  What!

Shows how ridiculous the whole polling thing is.  They ought to get rid of the human polls all together.

I agree with you. One way to look at this though is we play bama. From several articles that I have read, many writers still think bama is the best team, especially for a one loss. They can overlook Auburn all they want, still, but when we beat bama, well that will speak volumes.

[Saniflush]

I agree with you. One way to look at this though is we play bama. From several articles that I have read, many writers still think bama is the best team, especially for a one loss. They can overlook Auburn all they want, still, but when we beat bama, well that will speak volumes.

If we win it's because they didn't want to.

[djsimp]

If we win it's because they didn't want to.

Well of course.

[AWK]

Listen to him .....he went to college and still gets lots of pussy cock.

Fixed.

[Saniflush]

Fixed.

haterz gonna hate.

[Godfather]

haterz gonna hate.

I thought it was because he was jealous