All Good Things...

[Townhallsavoy]

I had some thoughts.  I wrote them down.  Read away.

All Good Things

   You’ve heard people say it.  You’ve heard paid analysts suggest it.  You’ve watched season after season and even thought it yourself.  “This team might have a chance to go undefeated every year for the rest of time.” 
   You remember watching Florida State finish in the top 3 for 14 straight years.  Bobby Bowden was the top head coach in the NCAA, and his grip on recruiting along with his dedication to team speed gave the impression that no other team would ever challenge the Seminoles again.  Steve Spurrier’s wide open offense would never be stopped.  Programs like Miami would dominate every year because it could recruit NFL talent easier than the military could recruit new members. 

   But they all went away.  Some for briefer times than others, but eventually they all went away. 

   Why? 

   For Florida St, the emergence of a stronger ACC along with the deterioration of a legendary head coach meant that winning would be more difficult.  Those “dad-gum” recruits don’t just win based on talent.  Other teams had equal or better talent, so it came down to coaching.  Bobby Bowden was too old for coaching. 
   For Florida, it was a coaching change.  Recruiting was the same if not better under Ron Zook, but the Gators found themselves fighting for the new Citrus Bowl – the bowl game renowned for being the reserved spot for Tennessee after being unable to top the dominant Gators. 
   For Miami, it was a lack of discipline. 
   For Nebraska, it was a change in philosophy. 
   For Alabama (60s-70s), it was the death of a legend. 

   The formula for the end of a dynasty is based on three major factors: philosophy changes, opponent adjustments, and impatience.
   Using this formula, it’s safe to say that the following programs will lose their grip on college football: Florida, USC, and Oklahoma. 

   Team A - Florida Gators – The Gators are capping off one of the most impressive runs in college football history.  Two national championships, a Heisman winner, and a slew of talent to fill up the gas tanks of NFL teams.  Urban Meyer is one of the most feared and respected coaches.  No one bets against the Gators.
1.   Philosophy Changes – Urban Meyer, if he even stays at Florida, will have to adjust to the loss of Tim Tebow.  The Gators claim that their backup will fill in just fine.  Just like John David Booty did for Matt Leinart, right?  The fact is that it will be very difficult to plug Brantley into the offense, which means Meyer will have to adjust.  He also has to account for his all-star defensive coordinator leaving for a head coaching job.  This does not bode well for the foreseeable future as Meyer’s philosophy has to change.
2.   Opponent Adjustments – The emergence of Alabama could not come at a worst time.  Not only have they stolen the SEC spotlight this year, they have to travel to Alabama next year.  It is very likely that Florida will lose for the 2nd time in a row setting up a huge game for the Gators in 2011 to take back the series.  But will it be too late?  When teams lose, their morale and their recruiting take a hit.  Tennessee (at least for right now) is on the rise.  They have good coaches and are currently sitting at #5 in national recruiting rankings. 
3.   Impatience – This is the killer.  How patient are Florida fans?  They had the website for firing Ron Zook created before he even coached his first season.  The heat is already on Meyer to regroup and show that his team will continue on dominating.  Eventually, this will take its toll on Meyer.  He’ll leave or be released thus ending the great run of Urban Meyer at Florida.

    Team B – USC – USC is the premier team of college football right now.  7 Pac 10 titles in 8 years along with 1 BCS championship trophy and three Heisman winners.  Pete Carroll is considered the best coach in America, and the publicity of the Trojans is unmatched. 
1.   Philosophy Changes – Pete Carroll recently had to change both offensive and defensive coordinators.  Already, his team has shown signs of weakening as the offense struggled to put up points, and the defense was swiss cheese.  The main reason for the defensive struggles was the injuries to key players.  Still, Pete Carroll will have to make changes to help defense compete in a league that features high octane offenses. 
2.   Opponent Adjustments – This is the biggest issue for USC.  Oregon and Oregon St are both solidifying themselves as perennial bowl teams.  Arizona, UCLA, and Washington have improved greatly under their new coaching staffs.  Add in the fact that Notre Dame will be getting a good hire soon, and the reign of USC dominating their in-season opponents is coming to an end. 
3.   Impatience – USC is the powerhouse.  The juggernaut.  THE dynasty.  What happens when that ends?  Who gets impatient first?  Carroll or the fans?  Pete Carroll could most likely bargain his way into the NFL any time he’d like.  Look for Carroll to make the jump with USC hiring a coach that can’t handle the pressure of being the premier team of college football.

   Team C – Oklahoma – Oklahoma has been to a BCS game 7 times since 2000.  They’ve competed for the national championship 4 times under Bob Stoops.  They’ve had a stronghold on the Big 12 for the past five years. 
1.   Philosophy Changes – Bob Stoops does not have a gun slinger at quarterback.  Landry Jones needs less responsibility, but that’s not their style.  The running game does not feature enough talent to dominate the ground game like Adrian Peterson did a few years ago.  This will force Stoops to make an adjustment in his offensive philosophy.  These kind of things take time.  More on this later.
2.   Opponent Adjustment – It’s not that the opponents are getting that much better.  It’s more that Oklahoma will be average for the next few years.  Nebraska is on the rise but won’t be on the schedule except for the Big 12 championship game.  Oklahoma St will still be the same mediocre 3-loss team.  Texas will be tough, but don’t expect them to be much of a threat with the loss of Colt McCoy.  So where do the opponents gain an advantage over Oklahoma?  Recruiting.  Recruiting will not be dominated by Oklahoma while the Sooners look for a new identity on offense and while the defense replaces a fantastic group of NFL caliber players.  This is a two year process, which leaves…
3.   Impatience – It happens with every dynasty.  It happened with Tommy Tuberville in 2008.  It happened with John Cooper at Ohio St in 1999.  Teams who experience success don’t know how to handle the intermission.  Sometimes, a coach needs to make adjustments to the team in order to keep up with his opponents.  The fans and administration grow impatient.  They come up with new reasons, and they get rid of the coach who has had brought so many good years.  Oklahoma’s fans will want Stoops out.  They’ll say he’s lost it.  They’ll remember losing the five straight BCS games.  They’ll get rid of him.