What I hope: Texas 17 Alabama 16
Likely: Alabama 27 Texas 17
Back in 2005 I picked Texas 38 USC 35. The final was Texas 41 USC 38.
I picked that based on Texas doing everything they needed to do, and Vince Young being Vince Young, in spite of the fact that the USC defense was supposedly going to contain him.
If Texas does that again (everything they need to do), they can pull the 17-16 win.
OFFENSE
- Texas is #3 in the country in red zone offense....if they get in there, they have to score (that's what she said).
- Colt McCoy needs to make some plays with his feet (he did lead Texas in rushing last year), making Alabama pay when playing man down field on receivers.
- Jordan Shipley needs to find some space across the middle, and one of Texas' other wide receivers has to use that to get down field a little.
- The very, very experienced offensive line has to hold up....at least delaying the pressure on McCoy. If they can make the pressure come from linebackers, and not from the front 4, then McCoy will have the time he needs to find Shipley or a back out of the back field. (I think Texas will make sure McCoy has a safety valve option to dump to when pressured). I also think McCoy is good enough to handle a corner blitz and make Bama pay.
DEFENSE
- Defensively they have to at least stifle the run. Not even stop it completely, but stifle the rhythm and keep big plays to a minimum. Ingram had a few games this year where he had averaged 30 yards on his two longest carries and then 2.2 yards on his other 16 carries. Texas has to avoid the two 30 yard runs.
- The special teams have to do what they've done this year, which is make plays and score points. Texas has 4 punt return TDs (most in the country) and 3 kickoff return TDs.
- Alabama is #35 in red zone offense....when they get in there, Texas has to force FGs.
And in a game with two good defenses, 3rd down may play a big role in keeping alive drives.
The 3rd down defense by both teams is excellent....Alabama allowing 3rd down conversions only 29% of the time (#3 in the country) and Texas allowing 3rd down conversions only 27% of the time (#2 in the country).
Offensively, Alabama converts 3rd downs only 40% of the time (#57 nationally), while Texas converts at 46% (#15 nationally). Alabama faced better defenses on average over the year, so that conversion rate is probably pretty even in reality.
So on 3rd downs, statistically, no one has a clear cut advantage. I look for McCoy-to-Shipley to be at least as reliable as Ingram, if not more, on 3rd downs.
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