The Gus Meter

[jmar]

We don't have the mechanism in place for a Jetgate/Oliveresque coup so are stuck with Malzahn for over a half decade of mostly 8 or 9 win seasons IMO.
10+ wins are expected.
He might get to 10 twice over the next five seasons.

[wesfau2]

I get the hair-tearing frustration with Gus's mistake-repetition.  I hope he's still growing as a coach.

I get the consternation with throwing a mountain of cash at him.  Market conditions are what they are.

Why I have no heartburn at all about the extension for Gus:

1) He is overseeing the golden age of Auburn recruiting; 
2) 2 SECW (reputedly the toughest division in college football) Championships and 1 SEC Championship in 4 years.  He is putting us in the conversation more often than not;
3) The value of stability and staff continuity, while unquantifiable, is valuable; and
4) There are no guaranteed upgrades and while we can question his decision making, he is not embarrassing the school/fanbase with buffoonery or criminal acts (a la Houston Nutt, Art Briles, Hugh Freeze).

[GH2001]

The probability of actually upgrading was infinitesimally small. Considering all of the variables in this year's coaching carousel I'd say we were 99% likely to downgrade.

But we didn't need to break the bank to keep him, IMO.

The two points above ^^ are the crux of it all.

And the first point is really the one keeping me from going all full Snags on him. More timing than anything. And well frankly, I don't want to be Tennessee and what they've done the last ten years wandering around aimlessly trying to "upgrade".

[bgreene]

Here's the thing, the poll was a little finite.  I  am actually a mixture of C, D and E. 

E. Ultimately, I don't think he is going to work out either, I think in 4 years we are going to be coach shopping.

D. he is a good recruiter we have no AD, no leadership it seems in the Athletic Department. I really didn't want to bungle another HC search.  I think it would have been a UT epic level fuck-up. So could have been worse.

C. I would have given him one more year based on the way this year turned out.  The contract though was a colossal fuck up.

The sad part is, Arkansas played us.  They were searching and he was the target that they were gonna pay big money for.  If not for the two BIG wins, he would be coaching the hogwallers. 

Now had Arkansas not been throwing all that money at him, I think we are sitting here in a much better position.  Without the newest contract, we could part ways with him and only have a couple of years to pay on the buy out.  As we sit today, we can't and won't fire him next season.

How I voted? Well we could be in worse shape had we let him go. 

[wesfau2]

The sad part is, Arkansas played us. 

I disagree entirely.  We were of no concern (except as counter-offeror) to Arky.  They (or some of their power brokers) reallllllly wanted Gus.  It wasn't a ploy to get Auburn to overspend.

In any year prior to 2017, the bidding would not have gotten so outrageous.  The fact is, with so many top-tier jobs and so few quality candidates to fill them, the price to retain simply grew beyond our market expectations.

[GH2001]

I disagree entirely.  We were of no concern (except as counter-offeror) to Arky.  They (or some of their power brokers) reallllllly wanted Gus.  It wasn't a ploy to get Auburn to overspend.

In any year prior to 2017, the bidding would not have gotten so outrageous.  The fact is, with so many top-tier jobs and so few quality candidates to fill them, the price to retain simply grew beyond our market expectations.

Can't state this enough. The desire from arky was legit and serious. Auburn played no part in what they wanted.

[Snaggletiger]

Had Arkansas already gotten someone else, would Auburn have done what they did?  Arkansas may not have "played us", and I never thought that was their intention.  But the mere fact that they were apparently open about wanting Gus made our administration shit themselves and throw wads of cash at a 5 loss a year coach.

Look, I'm going to say this so hear me now but believe me last Thursday.  I think there are some extremely valid points made above, especially with regard to the coaching pool being dried up and the crazy environment with the carousel this year.  I get that and it's probably a legit reason to make the effort to retain Malzahn.  It's not a reason to give the man keys to the city and an upgrade in his BMW.  As for the recruiting, I also agree that it's been top shelf since he got here.  The other side of that is we have a group of 5-loss 5-stars.  And a 4 year history of that gives every reason to believe that will continue.

But hey, you wanted stability. You got it.

I will shut up now regarding my objections to Malzahn.  I've said my peace.   

Despite what I've said, I'll be pulling for him and this program every game.  I'm still going to the Planes like always.  I'm still going to be just as interested in and picking apart every detail of the program, especially heights and weights. (And getting multiple shower pics) Most of all, I'll be pulling for a Bruce Pearl-esque turn around as I own the fact that I've been just as vocal about the horrible performance of his round hoops program to this point.  I would LOVE nothing better than to be wrong.  It doesn't happen very often, so I can live with the occasional slip up.

I'm done on Malzahn.  War Damn!!!!  Now, let's go get us a kick ass running back this February.   

[GH2001]

Had Arkansas already gotten someone else, would Auburn have done what they did?  Arkansas may not have "played us", and I never thought that was their intention.  But the mere fact that they were apparently open about wanting Gus made our administration shit themselves and throw wads of cash at a 5 loss a year coach.

Look, I'm going to say this so hear me now but believe me last Thursday.  I think there are some extremely valid points made above, especially with regard to the coaching pool being dried up and the crazy environment with the carousel this year.  I get that and it's probably a legit reason to make the effort to retain Malzahn.  It's not a reason to give the man keys to the city and an upgrade in his BMW.  As for the recruiting, I also agree that it's been top shelf since he got here.  The other side of that is we have a group of 5-loss 5-stars.  And a 4 year history of that gives every reason to believe that will continue.

But hey, you wanted stability. You got it.

I will shut up now regarding my objections to Malzahn.  I've said my peace.   

Despite what I've said, I'll be pulling for him and this program every game.  I'm still going to the Planes like always.  I'm still going to be just as interested in and picking apart every detail of the program, especially heights and weights. (And getting multiple shower pics) Most of all, I'll be pulling for a Bruce Pearl-esque turn around as I own the fact that I've been just as vocal about the horrible performance of his round hoops program to this point.  I would LOVE nothing better than to be wrong.  It doesn't happen very often, so I can live with the occasional slip up.

I'm done on Malzahn.  War Damn!!!!  Now, let's go get us a kick ass running back this February.   

To answer the first question....nope. But that was the market that existed - the supply and demand as Wes stated. Ark created that dynamic not us so it is what it is. Not sure anyone agrees with it entirely but you pay to play. I was in favor of a nice raise but not what he got.

[Godfather]

I get the hair-tearing frustration with Gus's mistake-repetition.  I hope he's still growing as a coach.

I get the consternation with throwing a mountain of cash at him.  Market conditions are what they are.

Why I have no heartburn at all about the extension for Gus:

1) He is overseeing the golden age of Auburn recruiting; 
2) 2 SECW (reputedly the toughest division in college football) Championships and 1 SEC Championship in 4 years.  He is putting us in the conversation more often than not;
3) The value of stability and staff continuity, while unquantifiable, is valuable; and
4) There are no guaranteed upgrades and while we can question his decision making, he is not embarrassing the school/fanbase with buffoonery or criminal acts (a la Houston Nutt, Art Briles, Hugh Freeze).

Don't get me wrong I love your optimism and I hope you are right.  I just feel every step forward we make is followed by 2 steps back.

[CCTAU]

This year was a very odd year. We have the talent and it was a tough year for Gusco.

Last year, we kept losing key components. So it was frustrating to watch Gus fold under the pressure of having enough backups prepared.

So I am hoping that with the experience form last season and the success of this season, he can move forward as a coach that will be prepared.

Watching your biggest rival playing 2 QBs and 4 RBs (some frosh), its hard to watch him put everything on just a few key guys. Hopefully he has learned. If not, we'll keep praying in the big games and clawing our eyes out for the LSU type games.

[WiregrassTiger]

This year was a very odd year. We have the talent and it was a tough year for Gusco.

Last year, we kept losing key components. So it was frustrating to watch Gus fold under the pressure of having enough backups prepared.

So I am hoping that with the experience form last season and the success of this season, he can move forward as a coach that will be prepared.

Watching your biggest rival playing 2 QBs and 4 RBs (some frosh), its hard to watch him put everything on just a few key guys. Hopefully he has learned. If not, we'll keep praying in the big games and clawing our eyes out for the LSU type games.

I’m not sure that any lessons have been learned. I’m not even certain that he really believes that he’s responsible for Clemson, LSU and UCF.

Facilities and talent is arguably  on par with anyone.

The key? I say coaching.

This coming season tells a tale but if it turns out that it determines we should change? We are stuck.

[wesfau2]

I can deal with 9-10 wins against the schedule we have. 

This doesn't compute for me.  Our odd-year schedules are much tougher and we won 10 this year.  You were pretty vocal in your criticism of Gus in regards to the results this year.  Why give him a (relative) pass in a year with more favorable scheduling?

In reconsidering the contract extension, I wonder if we don't actually save money with it.  Fire Gus and there is a buyout and a new coach to hire.  The new coach will get a bunch of (market driven) guaranteed money along with a fat buyout.  Odds are he will fail and we will pay him what amounts to: Gus's buyout, his signing bonus/guarantee PLUS his buyout.

Worst case scenario with Gus: we're hung with his contract over that same time frame.

[GH2001]

This doesn't compute for me.  Our odd-year schedules are much tougher and we won 10 this year.  You were pretty vocal in your criticism of Gus in regards to the results this year.  Why give him a (relative) pass in a year with more favorable scheduling?

In reconsidering the contract extension, I wonder if we don't actually save money with it.  Fire Gus and there is a buyout and a new coach to hire.  The new coach will get a bunch of (market driven) guaranteed money along with a fat buyout.  Odds are he will fail and we will pay him what amounts to: Gus's buyout, his signing bonus/guarantee PLUS his buyout.

Worst case scenario with Gus: we're hung with his contract over that same time frame.

The only coach I would have been ok with firing gus for would have been Patterson. And it would have taken close to if not equal to what we just gave gus PLUS gus' buyout PLUS Patterson's buyout. Also not financially sound.