Auburn vs. Auburn, a statistical analysis: Week 10
By: David Morrison
November 04, 2010
Remember: pluses under Auburn in the "change" categories mean the Tigers are statistically better this year, just like minuses under opponents. Unless we're talking about giveaways. Or, again, penalties.
Auburn
Rush Attempts
2010: 431
2009: 402
Change: +7.2%
Rush Yards
2010: 2769
2009: 2018
Change: +37.2%
Yards Per Rush
2010: 6.4
2009: 5.0
Change: +28.0%
Rushing Touchdowns
2010: 27
2009: 16
Change: +68.8%
Pass Attempts
2010: 173
2009: 246
Change: -29.7%
Pass Yards
2010: 1697
2009: 1830
Change: -7.3%
Yards Per Attempt
2010: 9.8
2009: 7.4
Change: +32.4%
Completion Percentage
2010: 66.5
2009: 55.3
Change: +11.2%
Passing Touchdowns
2010: 16
2009: 16
Change: 0.0%
Passer Efficiency
2010: 173.6
2009: 136.0
Change: +27.6%
Total Plays
2010: 604
2009: 648
Change: -6.8%
Total Yards
2010: 4466
2009: 3848
Change: +16.1%
Yards Per Play
2010: 7.4
2009: 5.9
Change: +25.4%
Giveaways
2010: 12
2009: 13
Change: -7.7%
3rd-Down Conversion Rate
2010: 50.0
2009: 39.7
Change: +10.3%
Avg. Time of Possession
2010: 29:07
2009: 27:49
Change: +4.7%
Points
2010: 360
2009: 287
Change: +25.4%
Opponents
Rush Attempts
2010: 302
2009: 352
Change: -14.2%
Rush Yards
2010: 1045
2009: 1611
Change: -35.1%
Yards Per Rush
2010: 3.5
2009: 4.6
Change: -23.9%
Rushing Touchdowns
2010: 13
2009: 18
Change: -27.8%
Pass Attempts
2010: 329
2009: 297
Change: +10.8%
Pass Yards
2010: 2180
2009: 1732
Change: +25.9%
Yards Per Attempt
2010: 6.6
2009: 5.8
Change: +13.8%
Completion Percentage
2010: 64.4
2009: 54.5
Change: +9.9%
Passing Touchdowns
2010: 15
2009: 11
Change: +36.4%
Passer Efficiency
2010: 130.3
2009: 108.3
Change: +20.3%
Total Plays
2010: 631
2009: 649
Change: -2.8%
Total Yards
2010: 3225
2009: 3343
Change: -3.5%
Yards Per Play
2010: 5.1
2009: 5.2
Change: -1.9%
Giveaways
2010: 16
2009: 18
Change: -11.1%
3rd-Down Conversion Rate
2010: 37.0
2009: 34.8
Change: +2.2%
Avg. Time of Possession
2010: 30:53
2009: 32:11
Change: -4.0%
Points
2010: 219
2009: 235
Change: -6.8%
Auburn Penalties
Number
2010: 56
2009: 61
Change: -9.8%
Yards
2010: 484
2009: 524
Change: -7.6%
What does it all mean?: Well, it's hard to find much wrong with this team right now. Especially on the offensive end.
But here's a troubling sign. The rush defense, which was so mighty at the beginning of the season, isn't so mighty anymore. That split from last season to this season is getting closer and closer as the weeks go by. It used to be up around 40 percent down. Now it's at 35. And the yards per rush gap is closing as well.
Consider, if you will, Auburn's rush yards per game heading into the past four SEC games: 92.8. Consider it now: 116.1. That means 145.3 over the past four games. And 4.6 yards per rush.
Granted, if you take Jeff Scott's 83-yard touchdown rush from last week's game, Ole Miss only gets 135 yards on 30 carries. But you can't. It counted, didn't it? That's like saying without Onterio McCalebb's 68-yard run, Auburn had only 275 yards on 45 carries.
Those numbers should get some help when the Tigers shellack UTC on Saturday. But it doesn't change the fact opponents are starting to figure out that run defense.
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