Who's on the outside looking in?

[Townhallsavoy]

It could be 2004 all over again.  Two teams start 1 and 2.  They don't lose.  Everyone else left out.  But it could be even worse. 

Here's the list (typical of every year) of the two teams that actually control their own destiny:
1.  Alabama
2.  Ohio State

But here's a list of teams that could go undefeated and watch the BCSCG from their couches:

3.  Oregon
4.  Boise State
5.  TCU
6./7. Nebraska/Oklahoma

And here's the list of teams facing a possible nightmare:

8.  Auburn
9.  LSU
11.  Arizona
16.  Michigan State
17.  Michigan
21.  Oklahoma State

If everyone is correct in saying that the Pac 10 is nearly on par with the SEC this year, then you have to give Oregon the nod for the BCSCG.  Leaving them out would be no different than telling an undefeated SEC team to stay away.  Most agree that was a travesty in 2004, although, it would have been (at the time) difficult to argue which of the top two deserved to stay home. 

Nebraska and Oklahoma are the other two teams that started high in a BCS conference and could possibly finish undefeated.  How do you tell an Oklahoma team that has won a BCS title in the past that they don't deserve to play for the national championship? 

Now for the nightmare scenarios:

Auburn - Could it happen again?  I don't think so because Auburn will have to beat Alabama to go undefeated, and barring a complete meltdown, a victory over Alabama could garner enough hype to launch them to the top spot in the country.  However, crazier things have happened, and I don't put it past the voters to leave an SEC team out again. 

Why not? 

Well, if Michigan and Ohio State are both undefeated in late November, that will put one in the top spot.  If it's Ohio State, due to their high ranking all year, they would get the easy nod. 

What about Oregon?  Do you have an undefeated Pac 10 team that started in the top five sitting home to watch Ohio State and Auburn/LSU play? 

It's a long way off, but the possibility is there.  We can shrug off the voters ever leaving an SEC team out as if it's an impossibility because of 2004.  However, the fact that it happened once already proves that it is a real possibility. 

The Boise State factor is there as well.  If Alabama falls and Ohio State is undefeated, who vaults the media-darling Broncos? 

Scary thoughts.   

[Lurking Tiger]

If Auburn goes undefeated, we will be ranked #2 at worst. Our SOS will do the rest. No chance we would be left out.

I don't think we will go undefeated though.

[Townhallsavoy]

If Auburn goes undefeated, we will be ranked #2 at worst. Our SOS will do the rest. No chance we would be left out.

I don't think we will go undefeated though.

Yeah I think we'll be fine in the long run.  The SEC should be a lock, but I'll never trust the BCS again after 2004.

The teams that should truly be worrying are Oregon, Oklahoma/Nebraska, and especially Oklahoma State. 

If Oklahoma State goes undefeated, no one is going to care unless they have to.  But that's the BCS world we live in.