Published: Tuesday, July 13, 2010, 9:04 AM
Evan Woodbery
With SEC Media Days on the horizon, I'm starting to think about my predictions for Auburn football in 2010, and I need your help.
I don't have to make my "official" pick for the newspapers until late August, but if I want to participate in the media vote next week, I'll have to start coming to some conclusions about Auburn and the SEC.
My predictions don't mean much, but I should point out that I accurately picked Auburn to be 7-5 last year. (My original pick was 6-6, but I wisely decided to add an extra win).
My formula for picking the season is simple: If the season were played right now, how many games would Auburn be favored to win? Of course, teams frequently lose games they should win and win games they're expected to lose, and Auburn did both in 2009. But this exercise provides a good starting place for making picks.
It's no secret that this year's schedule is much more favorable than 2009 was or 2011 will be. But I didn't realize how favorable it was until I started breaking down the picks.
Remember, I'm not picking who I think will win, but only the expected favorite and underdog if the season were played today.
My only reservations about these picks were the mid-October home games against Arkansas and LSU. Given that the games are played in Jordan-Hare Stadium, I think Auburn deserves to be considered a slight favorite. However, I gave Arkansas an edge because some of the ultra-early Vegas lines make the Razorbacks the favorite.
So, my pre-pre-season conclusion is this: Auburn might be an underdog only once until its final game of the season. Pretty surprising, huh?
That doesn't mean Auburn will enter the Iron Bowl at 10-1 or 11-0, but it does mean the Tigers probably deserve a bit more summer attention than they have garnered to this point. And it means Auburn has a very strong case to be picked the No. 2 team in the West at next week's media days.
Are any of my lines way off base? Let me know what you think.
** Standard disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only.
Sept. 4, ARKANSAS STATE
Line: Auburn by 25
Sept. 9, at Mississippi State
Line: Auburn by 6
Sept. 18, CLEMSON
Line: Auburn by 2
Sept. 25, SOUTH CAROLINA
Line: Auburn by 5
Oct. 2, LOUISIANA-MONROE
Line: Auburn by 28
Oct. 9, at Kentucky
Line: Auburn by 8
Oct. 16, ARKANSAS
Line: Arkansas by 2
Oct. 23, LSU
Line: Auburn by 1
Oct. 30, at Ole Miss
Line: Auburn by 2
Nov. 6, CHATTANOOGA
Line: Auburn by 38
Nov. 13, GEORGIA
Line: Auburn by 4
Nov. 26, at Alabama
Line: Alabama by 9
I agree AWK.Really, I think this is Les Miles' year to fuck it all up. I see them flopping just a bit, and AU will have home field advantage. It's hard to tell, because we really don't know how AU will do. Going into the season with a new QB adds alot of unknown to the equation.
Apparently Clemson is expected to be a mild contender.
AU by 8 at KY after last season and by 4 over GA after the last 4?
AU is an UND to Arky, no problem there BUT the following week a favorite over LSU. Hmmm!
Really, I think this is Les Miles' year to phuk it all up. I see them flopping just a bit, and AU will have home field advantage. It's hard to tell, because we really don't know how AU will do. Going into the season with a new QB adds alot of unknown to the equation.
I think Clemson will be back in form this year.
Kentucky beating AU last season was a fluke. I still don't know how the phuk it happened, but I really don't see them doing it twice in a row. But then again, KY can play some hard ball at times.
UGA should be a little better this season. They didn't have that much of a problem scoring, they just couldn't keep the other team from scoring. I think they win their 5th straight over AU this season.
phuk Arkansas.
I agree with you except on the UGA part. Richt is on the hot seat, they have been under performing lately, Evans got canned, players getting arrested and the worst recruiting year in the Richt era - I just see too much turmoil in Athens this year for them to be anything more than a good team.Shit, wait......they are breaking in a new QB this season. I thought they had a returning starter for 1 more year. Yeah, just ignore the whole UGA part of my post. Later, Richt.
I agree with you except on the UGA part. Richt is on the hot seat, they have been under performing lately, Evans got canned, players getting arrested and the worst recruiting year in the Richt era - I just see too much turmoil in Athens this year for them to be anything more than a good team.
Allbarn should be 10-2 this year anything less is a disappointment.
Allbarn should be 10-2 this year anything less is a disappointment.
Without a defense?
Pfft...please. The faster they score, the faster Cam and company can get back on the field. WCE!!!
DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAX!!!!!!!!!
You actually think this team can outscore all its opponents with the depth problems at long snapper? You are duhreemin' fellah.
DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAX!!!!!!!!!
(Shakes fist towards the sky)
Remember the scene at the end of Star Wars Episode 3? Replace Vader with Harvey and Padme' with Dax and it's the same thing.
Hard to predict what their record will be. I predict the hot seat rumors on Richt are false. There's no rational basis for it.
Mark Richt
90-27 (.769)
7-2 in bowls
4 SECE Titles and 2 SEC Titles in 10
a "Big Snapper" limo tour
I am just saying I only see two games you should lose.
Tubs' record on paper and his accomplishments also didnt appear to warrant replacing him, but as you know JR, its the last 1-2 years people go by - and UGA has been average lately. Especially with the talent they have. The off field distractions dont help.
(http://i482.photobucket.com/albums/rr185/johnofbham/Sherlock%20Holmes/rathbone4.jpg)I tell you an undefeated season is the only response to such a ploy my dear Watson. Auburn fans everywhere are experiencing a false sense of security in the team's fortunes based on the prediction of this No Huddle fellow. We must warn them that they not get their hopes up too high in the event the team should stumble upon hard times.
The enemy claims houndstooth and as a fashion expert I deplore their confusion with mere plaid. I shall never rest until those responsible are shown the error of their way.
It's a British thing!
Dude, you're sick in the head...in a good way.Why of course I am...Richt's winning percentage and bowl record save him. They could go after a guy like Petersen at seasons end or risk getting a Jim Donnan who wasn't all that bad although I thought AU could beat him and was disappointed to see him go only for that reason. And rivalry games are huge but few could see merit in giving him the ax based on losing to Florida. He has had Auburn, Tech, So Car. and Clemson in check.
(http://i482.photobucket.com/albums/rr185/johnofbham/Sherlock%20Holmes/rathbone4.jpg)I tell you an undefeated season is the only response to such a ploy my dear Watson. Auburn fans everywhere are experiencing a false sense of security in the team's fortunes based on the prediction of this No Huddle fellow. We must warn them that they not get their hopes up too high in the event the team should stumble upon hard times.
The enemy claims houndstooth and as a fashion expert I deplore their confusion with mere plaid. I shall never rest until those responsible are shown the error of their way.
It's a British thing!
I like it. But really I think allbarn should win 10 games. Alabama and LSU are the only two that I see that will give you trouble. I am wrong many times a day, just ask my wife, but I feel pretty good about this one.No need to ask the spouse. It's a given, I know. The trick is to make useful light of your wrongness in a sort of Raymond way.
Tubs' record on paper and his accomplishments also didnt appear to warrant replacing him, but as you know JR, its the last 1-2 years people go by - and UGA has been average lately. Especially with the talent they have. The off field distractions dont help.