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Pat Dye Field => War Damn Eagle => Topic started by: jadennis on December 15, 2009, 04:08:04 PM

Title: ESPN's Accuscore projections for SEC bowl games....
Post by: jadennis on December 15, 2009, 04:08:04 PM

Accuscore enters all kinds of stats for every team and every game for the whole season.  Then it plays each bowl game 10,000 times and gives an average final score and a pick for who wins what % of the 10,000 games.  The scores are actually to the tenth of a point, but I rounded each one.

Here are the SEC bowl games:

Kentucky vs Clemson
Clemson wins 70% of the time.
Avg score: Clemson 29  Kentucky 21
Current Line: Clemson by 8

Georgia vs Texas A&M
Georgia wins 70% of the time.
Avg score: Georgia 35  Texas A&M 27
Current Line: Georgia by 7

Tennessee vs Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech wins 67% of the time.
Avg score: Virginia Tech 28  Tennessee 21
Current Line:  Virginia Tech by 5

Auburn vs Northwestern
Auburn wins 76% of the time.
Avg score: Auburn 31  Northwestern 21
Current Line: Auburn by 8

LSU vs Penn State
Penn State wins 60% of the time.
Avg score: Penn State 23  LSU 20
Current Line:  Penn State by 3

Florida vs Cincinnati
Florida wins 77% of the time.
Avg score: Florida 34  Cincinnati 24
Current Line: Florida by 11

South Carolina vs Connecticut
South Carolina wins 59% of the time.
Avg score: South Carolina 27  Connecticut 24
Current Line: South Carolina by 5

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma State
Ole Miss wins 51% of the time.
Avg score: Ole Miss 26  Oklahoma State 25
Current Line:  Ole Miss by 3

Arkansas vs East Carolina
Arkansas wins 71% of the time.
Avg score: Arkansas 35  ECU 27
Current Line: Arkansas by 8

Alabama vs Texas
Alabama wins 65% of the time.
Avg score: Alabama 25  Texas 19
Current Line: Alabama by 6


According to this, the SEC should go 7-3 in bowl games.  Sounds about right.

Title: Re: ESPN's Accuscore projections for SEC bowl games....
Post by: jmar on December 15, 2009, 04:37:12 PM

I'm glad  UGA got A&M instead of Auburn. I pretty much agree with the rest of the games.

Title: Re: ESPN's Accuscore projections for SEC bowl games....
Post by: AWK on December 15, 2009, 04:49:50 PM

I agree, except I think LSU stomps Penn State, and Ole Miss loses to Oklahoma State.

Title: Re: ESPN's Accuscore projections for SEC bowl games....
Post by: jadennis on December 15, 2009, 04:57:08 PM

Quote from: AWK on December 15, 2009, 04:49:50 PM

I agree, except I think LSU stomps Penn State, and Ole Miss loses to Oklahoma State.

Those two stood out to me too.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Tennessee beat Va Tech.  In fact, I'll say if Crompton throws for over 200 yards and fewer than 2 picks, they'll win.

Title: Re: ESPN's Accuscore projections for SEC bowl games....
Post by: No Huddle on December 16, 2009, 07:34:55 AM

I thought LSU and Ole Piss would lose. I have been wrong all season so I guess they both win by 100.

Title: Re: ESPN's Accuscore projections for SEC bowl games....
Post by: lifesapplepie on December 16, 2009, 09:54:04 AM

Quote from: No Huddle on December 16, 2009, 07:34:55 AM

I thought LSU and Ole Piss would lose. I have been wrong all season so I guess they both win by 100.

I always wondered how odds makers came up with their lines...now I know!!