Tigers X - Number one Source to Talk Auburn Tigers Sports
The Library => The SGA => Topic started by: Tarheel on February 25, 2009, 12:02:02 PM
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On the day following The Annointed ONE's big pre-State of the Union speech I thought that I'd share with my TigersX friends the key things that I learned in a lunch seminar yesterday sponsored by a local radio station in the ATL called "Surviving the Economic Crisis".
There were two keynote speakers; one was a major real estate investor in Atlanta, the other was a fund manager in Atlanta; John Adams and Dr. Gene Henssler respectively. Both rational and intelligent professionals. I've listed their websites below if you want to check their credentials and backgrounds for yourself.
Probably the most rational thing that I heard was that we've been through worse and we'll make it through this eventually. But two things that we can all expect are greater inflation and greater government interference in all our lives beginning with nationalization of public business to a lesser or greater degree. Investors of all levels need to prepare and protect themselves and their worth in this situation.
Real estate was mentioned as a safe bet but I was concerned that no mention was made of the glut of foreclosures that seem to be generally driving down the worth of real estate. Of course, real estate, like politics, is regional and they did make mention of that truism. Personally, I still think its a good bet but I'm very conservative and believe in the long range investment.
With all of my jaded thoughts about the stock market I was really encouraged by what I heard. They confirmed that there's a lot of fear and irrational behavior driving investors and, especially, traders right now. Most of it due to the ignorance of what the hell The ONE and his minions in congress are going to do. This irrational behavior is driving investors and traders to long-term treasuries which is even more irrational according to Dr Henssler. The market is cheap today and he suggested that the old tried and true practice of buying good, high quality common stocks that pay a good dividend with money you won't need for 10 years or more is the best bet. Some of the examples offered were ADP, Abbott Labs, Emerson Electric, 3M, McDonalds, and AFLAC. At least those were all the ones I could write down from the list.
He cited a study that I've heard of before done between 1900 and 2008 showing that if you'd been invested during that time in these kinds of stocks and missed the 10 best days your portfolio would be worth 2/3rds less than it would have been had you been invested in those days. Reassuring in this turbulence. He suggested not investing in commodities especially citing gold (cringe!).
Well, in conclusion, both presenters said think about equities and real estate...both investments that have a track record of increasing in worth. Remember that these situations move in cycles and you are not your net worth.
My fears were assuaged a bit but I still have some misgivings about this down trend until The ONE's intentions become clearer.
Hope this will be of some interest or help anyway.
Credential/information:
Dr. Gene Henssler:
http://www.henssler.com/gwh/service/why-henssler.asp (http://www.henssler.com/gwh/service/why-henssler.asp)
John Adams:
http://money99.com/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,1/ (http://money99.com/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,1/)
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Long story short, because of personal reasons, I have not invested like I should in my 401k. With that being said, I am in a position now where I could max this out per year. At this time, do you guys think that I should do that? Or should I hold off for 6 months or so and start investing then?
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Long story short, because of personal reasons, I have not invested like I should in my 401k. With that being said, I am in a position now where I could max this out per year. At this time, do you guys think that I should do that? Or should I hold off for 6 months or so and start investing then?
My honest opinion, jaded as it is, is to wait just a little while longer. I think we're near the bottom but not there yet. I don't think Wall Street is going to do much until we all know what the rules of the game are going to be with nationalization, credit, housing, etc.
I'm probably going to wait about 4 to 6 months before I jump back in but that's just my opinion. Maybe some of the other X'ers have some better insight than me.
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Long story short, because of personal reasons, I have not invested like I should in my 401k. With that being said, I am in a position now where I could max this out per year. At this time, do you guys think that I should do that? Or should I hold off for 6 months or so and start investing then?
Yes. Jump in fully. You are never getting any younger and the 401K is a LOOOOONNG term investment. Just be wary of putting more than 30% in high risk areas. If you do the math, you are already behind.
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Mutual funds tied to certain commodities/companies (most are not truely indexed to a commodities) have my full attention currently. These are alot easier then buying commodities on the market. You also want lose your ass overnight.
My theory: (which that and 50 cents will buy you a coke)
Oil will be the first thing to shot off like a rocket once the DOW starts to come back. And upward pressure on Oil prices will drive most equities down as they adjust for increase business costs such as freight, travel, utilities.
I'm laying heavy in long positions in:
FSENX - FIDELITY SELECT ENERGY (Fidelity has some dog managers/funds but low transaction fees, comparable returns compared to other companies)
FSNGX - FIDELITY SELECT NATURAL GAS POR (real long position, I'm betting on Berry and T.Boone inflating the market)
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Mutual funds tied to certain commodities/companies (most are not truely indexed to a commodities) have my full attention currently. These are alot easier then buying commodities on the market. You also want lose your ass overnight.
My theory: (which that and 50 cents will buy you a coke)
Oil will be the first thing to shot off like a rocket once the DOW starts to come back. And upward pressure on Oil prices will drive most equities down as they adjust for increase business costs such as freight, travel, utilities.
I'm laying heavy in long positions in:
FSENX - FIDELITY SELECT ENERGY (Fidelity has some dog managers/funds but low transaction fees, comparable returns compared to other companies)
FSNGX - FIDELITY SELECT NATURAL GAS POR (real long position, I'm betting on Berry and T.Boone inflating the market)
Extremely interesting, JohnDeere! Thanks again!
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Invest now... ASAP... If you're talking about your 401k, get in there NOW!!!
Read up on "Dollar Cost Averaging". The market is lower than it will ever be. Maybe, it'll drop another 10-20%, but I don't see any significant drops in the near future, unless The Obama tries to nationalize everything along the lines of Castro in Cuba in the early 60s. The current levels don't even matter right now. With the concept of "Dollar Cost Averaging", you're investing a little every month or every paycheck. With this schedule of routine purchases, you're purchasing at lower prices when the market dips and at higher prices when the market jumps. Because it's a long term investment, you're going to do well.
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Invest now... ASAP... If you're talking about your 401k, get in there NOW!!!
Read up on "Dollar Cost Averaging". The market is lower than it will ever be. Maybe, it'll drop another 10-20%, but I don't see any significant drops in the near future, unless The Obama tries to nationalize everything along the lines of Castro in Cuba in the early 60s. The current levels don't even matter right now. With the concept of "Dollar Cost Averaging", you're investing a little every month or every paycheck. With this schedule of routine purchases, you're purchasing at lower prices when the market dips and at higher prices when the market jumps. Because it's a long term investment, you're going to do well.
I do.
But otherwise sound advice GarMan.
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I do.
Well, this clown has become so used to crying "WOLF" and preaching stories of doom-and-gloom, he and his Clinton-retread administration don't know how to send out positive messages. I think it's hilarious. Even Bidden came out and said the porkulus bill may not work. What kind of confidence are you building with a message like that? I mean seriously, after bitching about $500B Bush deficits, do you really expect to be a strong leader by bringing in a $1.75T deficit in your first year???
Every single time these clowns speak, the markets drop. Every single time they pass legislation, the markets drop. It seems to me that Wall Street and the business community don’t trust them. The One's approval rating has been declining ever since he got elected. As others have said, I don't think that he ever really expected to win this thing. Now, he doesn't really know what to do. He just reverts back to what he thinks was his winning strategy, but claiming that we're all victims isn't a winning strategy once you've become the President. He’s supposed to solve the problems now, and he never really knew how to do that.
I don't think the markets will drop much further. At some point, free market forces will fight back and rebound, and The One will become irrelevant. At this stage, if they can’t get their shit together, I see a major swing in 2010 along with massive gains in the markets. The Republicans need to get their act together now and prepare for it.