Tigers X - Number one Source to Talk Auburn Tigers Sports
Pat Dye Field => War Damn Eagle => Topic started by: Kaos on August 04, 2011, 02:58:39 PM
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As most of you know, I tend to be pessimistic. It would be easy to buy into the "best we can hope for is six wins" mantra that has been throbbing for three months now.
But I'm not buying it. And here's why.
1) Gus.
The year before he got to Tulsa, the team scored 360 points. In his two seasons there the Golden Hurricane racked up 1237 (average of 44 points per). They scored 661 in his second season. His first season at Auburn, with essentially the same talent that had scored an anemic 208 points in 2008, Auburn's offense set records with 433 points. The Tigers scored 577 a year ago.
Auburn scored 433 points with a noodle-armed, concrete-footed statue and one running back with a little pop. Whoever is running the offense in 2011 will be at least as effective as Todd. Dyer and Onterrio can match what Ben gave.
Cam Newton. Cam Newton. Cam Newton. Yes, he was great. Probably the best player not named Bo Jackson I've ever seen. Yes he accounted for a ton of offensive yards. But if you study what Malzahn has been able to accomplish over the past five years, most of those yards were going to come from somewhere anyway. Cam's determination was the difference in the Kentucky game. He was a major factor against Carolina and Clemson early. But had Cam not been there, the plan would have been different. Maybe not undefeated, but definitely a contender.
The offense isn't going to melt away and be unable to do anything.
2. Resilience.
Cam got a lot of credit for leading comebacks and giving Auburn a chance to win. And he was invaluable. But back up a year. West Virginia? Auburn got down and came back with Todd.
Cam made them believe they could overcome ANY hurdle, but the seeds for that were already sewn. The ability to score (which AU will have) at any time from anywhere makes anything possible.
AU is like Rocky 3 every week. Or like Ali against Foreman. "That all you got?" Okay, watch the ass whipping commence.
3. Defense
Weakest argument, but let's make it anyway.
Oh no! Can't overcome the loss of Nick Fairley. Who knew Nick's name at this time last year? His momma?
The offense puts the defense at a disadvantage. No question. Look at Tulsa when Malzahn was there. The year before he arrived, the defense allowed 262 points. The year after he left it allowed 328. In his two seasons, the Tulsa defense surrendered 467 and 391 points.
Defense showed signs late of getting it together. The second half of the Alabama game was brutally masterful. The NC game was an exhibition of dominance. There will be new faces and linebacker is a major concern (frankly, the loss of Bynes is greater than the loss of Fairley) but the changes in the secondary seem positive and the line will be solid.
4. History
Pat Sullivan won the Heisman in 1971. Auburn went 9-2. The 1972 Auburn team without Sullivan and Beasley was supposed to suck total ass. Anybody remember 1972? 10-1. Best team in the country at the end of the year.
Bo Jackson won the Heisman in 1985. The Tigers went 8-4. Auburn was supposed to fall off the cliff in 1986. Anybody remember 1986? 10-2.
5. Saban.
His fifth season at LSU was his most disappointing.
Tyrannical assholes typically have a shelf life of four to five years before people start tuning their ass out and defying their bullshit. The jackass method of management normally cannot sustain itself long-term.
Ego-driven assclowns like Saban react to losing their grip by being an even bigger ass and cutting corners (ethically and morally). That's already started to happen. Saban is at the ass end of his effectiveness. He's never HAD to sustain and has no idea how to do that.
No question he can come in, change the culture by being a colossal prick and achieve short-term (and in Bama's case pretty impressive) results. But he is not going to have patience with the worst fanbase in sports history after they lose their collective shit when UA fails to get the title back from Auburn. Should that failure be coupled with a loss to the Tigers? Wow. You thought the summer of hate this year was bad? Wait to see them devour themselves in a frenzy of self-loathing.
Is it possible AU wins five or six games and gets mauled by the Alabama national title train? Of course. But I just don't see it.
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Referencing my own editorial in the Countdown thread, Auburn has always fared well in tough schedules and low expectations.
Prior to 2004, we were going to be no better than 2003. We still had Jason Campbell. We still lacked identity on offense. We had a 8-9 win coach in Tuberville. We weren't recruiting well. But we went 14-0.
Prior to 2005, we lost too much talent to compete. We would be on a downward spiral because Tuberville used up his one good year. We went 9-3. And we came very close to going 10-1 in the regular season except for a tough overtime loss to @LSU.
Prior to 2007, we were once again nobodies. No one to really care about. No one to scare. Inexperience was all over the field, and our quarterback was half blind (literally). We most likely would rely on on a true freshman QB by the end of the season. Our running backs were inexperienced. Our defense was young. Saban had come to town. And yet, despite a rough start, we went on to compete rather well in the SEC including a last second loss to eventual national champions LSU.
Prior to 2009, we had a 5-19 coach. No talent. No hope. No motivation. We were coming off of a 5-7 embarrassment and a laughable coaching search. The team shouldn't even try. We had the worst quarterback in the league. We had a dysfunctional offensive line. We had everything you didn't want when attempting to at least be competitive in the SEC. And yet, we went 8-5. Some may scoff at my positive opinion of this season since we lost 5 SEC games. But we were mostly competitive. Considering the predictions were for Auburn to be sucked into a black hole, I'd say things went rather well for Coach Chizik and the Auburn family.
2010 is well documented. Low expectations from the nation. Big results from the team.
To add to your salient points -
Chizik has been ridiculed for a quote that went something like this: "We don't think about the national championship season last year because most of those guys aren't here anymore. The guys we have don't know much about that and are hungry to prove themselves this year."
We're going to lose some games, and we're going to have some stupid ass plays that piss us off as fans. But we have very talented young guys on this team, and all of them will be desperately trying to make a name for themselves.
I have a feeling we'll shock some title contenders this year.
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There's just so much unknown. I'm in total agreement that there's a ton of young talent on this team and more guys than you think played a major role in the championship. I have no idea how John Sullen or Chad Slade or Reese Dismukes will perform. They may be freakin' studs. We're definitely going to have to count on several incoming freshmen, both on the D-line and secondary. They may be in over their collective heads or they may be worthy of all the hype and pull a Fab 5 type performance. I do know it;s going to be fun to watch.
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Why did you put a ")" behind number 1. But a "." behind the rest of the numbers? Makes no fucking sense.
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We're going to lose some games, and we're going to have some stupid ass plays that piss us off as fans. But we have very talented young guys on this team, and all of them will be desperately trying to make a name for themselves.
I have a feeling we'll shock some title contenders this year.
Agree.
I have a feeling this will be a little like 07, things will start off rocky, but I also expect our line to start gelling and we bust some folks in the mouth, just like we did UF.
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Should I do it?
Taint hasn't been called yet, but what the hell. I'll pull the trigger.
DO THE LINK
http://www.tigersx.com/forum/war_damn_eagle/2011_auburn_wins_losses_prediction_thread_14789.0.html
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Why did you put a ")" behind nunmber 1. But a "." behind the rest of the numbers? Makes no fucking sense.
Well, if we're going to get nitpicky, he put them after the numbers.
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Why did you put a ")" behind nunmber 1. But a "." behind the rest of the numbers? Makes no fucking sense.
Well, if we're going to get nitpicky, he put them after the numbers.
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Why did you put a ")" behind nunmber 1. But a "." behind the rest of the numbers? Makes no fucking sense.
Well, if we're going to get nitpicky, he put them after the numbers.
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Well, if we're going to get nitpicky, he put them after the numbers.
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NITPICKY??? NUMBERS?????!?!?!
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Well, if we're going to get nitpicky, he put them after the numbers.
He only did it once.
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I take it he's having nitpicky problems again.
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I take it he's having nitpicky problems again.
Apple
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I do not think Auburn will win a National Championship next year. I do not think Auburn will even contend for the West again until 2012.
I do think that Auburn will derail the chances of at least one team, possibly two, with 2011 MNC aspirations.
In fact, Auburn may be responsible for creating a scenario where the SEC has no chance to continue the BCSNC streak in 2011.
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In fact, Auburn may be responsible for creating a scenario where the SEC has no chance to continue the BCSNC streak in 2011.
I would love that.
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I would love that.
I am mixed on that. Living in TX, I LOVE LOVE LOVE playing the "My bad ass conference will fuck up your conference" card. I hope that any one of 11 teams keeps the streak alive. But if the next one to continue the streak is bammer? GO BIG USED-TO-BE-TWELVE! GO PENN STATE! GO MEEECHIGAN! GO WHOEVER THE FUCK WINS THE BIG LEAST! GO STANFORD! (and so forth.)
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As most of you know, I tend to be pessimistic. It would be easy to buy into the "best we can hope for is six wins" mantra that has been throbbing for three months now.
But I'm not buying it. And here's why.
1) Gus.
The year before he got to Tulsa, the team scored 360 points. In his two seasons there the Golden Hurricane racked up 1237 (average of 44 points per). They scored 661 in his second season. His first season at Auburn, with essentially the same talent that had scored an anemic 208 points in 2008, Auburn's offense set records with 433 points. The Tigers scored 577 a year ago.
Auburn scored 433 points with a noodle-armed, concrete-footed statue and one running back with a little pop. Whoever is running the offense in 2011 will be at least as effective as Todd. Dyer and Onterrio can match what Ben gave.
Cam Newton. Cam Newton. Cam Newton. Yes, he was great. Probably the best player not named Bo Jackson I've ever seen. Yes he accounted for a ton of offensive yards. But if you study what Malzahn has been able to accomplish over the past five years, most of those yards were going to come from somewhere anyway. Cam's determination was the difference in the Kentucky game. He was a major factor against Carolina and Clemson early. But had Cam not been there, the plan would have been different. Maybe not undefeated, but definitely a contender.
The offense isn't going to melt away and be unable to do anything.
2. Resilience.
Cam got a lot of credit for leading comebacks and giving Auburn a chance to win. And he was invaluable. But back up a year. West Virginia? Auburn got down and came back with Todd.
Cam made them believe they could overcome ANY hurdle, but the seeds for that were already sewn. The ability to score (which AU will have) at any time from anywhere makes anything possible.
AU is like Rocky 3 every week. Or like Ali against Foreman. "That all you got?" Okay, watch the ass whipping commence.
3. Defense
Weakest argument, but let's make it anyway.
Oh no! Can't overcome the loss of Nick Fairley. Who knew Nick's name at this time last year? His momma?
The offense puts the defense at a disadvantage. No question. Look at Tulsa when Malzahn was there. The year before he arrived, the defense allowed 262 points. The year after he left it allowed 328. In his two seasons, the Tulsa defense surrendered 467 and 391 points.
Defense showed signs late of getting it together. The second half of the Alabama game was brutally masterful. The NC game was an exhibition of dominance. There will be new faces and linebacker is a major concern (frankly, the loss of Bynes is greater than the loss of Fairley) but the changes in the secondary seem positive and the line will be solid.
4. History
Pat Sullivan won the Heisman in 1971. Auburn went 9-2. The 1972 Auburn team without Sullivan and Beasley was supposed to suck total ass. Anybody remember 1972? 10-1. Best team in the country at the end of the year.
Bo Jackson won the Heisman in 1985. The Tigers went 8-4. Auburn was supposed to fall off the cliff in 1986. Anybody remember 1986? 10-2.
5. Saban.
His fifth season at LSU was his most disappointing.
Tyrannical assholes typically have a shelf life of four to five years before people start tuning their ass out and defying their bullshit. The jackass method of management normally cannot sustain itself long-term.
Ego-driven assclowns like Saban react to losing their grip by being an even bigger ass and cutting corners (ethically and morally). That's already started to happen. Saban is at the ass end of his effectiveness. He's never HAD to sustain and has no idea how to do that.
No question he can come in, change the culture by being a colossal prick and achieve short-term (and in Bama's case pretty impressive) results. But he is not going to have patience with the worst fanbase in sports history after they lose their collective shit when UA fails to get the title back from Auburn. Should that failure be coupled with a loss to the Tigers? Wow. You thought the summer of hate this year was bad? Wait to see them devour themselves in a frenzy of self-loathing.
Is it possible AU wins five or six games and gets mauled by the Alabama national title train? Of course. But I just don't see it.
Agree.
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3. I knew Nick Fairley, I can't remember if I stated it here, but back around this time last year, I told Jumbo to watch out for #90 he's going to do some big thangs. The DLineman that we'll miss the most? Zach Clayton.
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72 scholarship players doeth not usually equal more than 6 or 7 wins.
2011 is just a year to survive.
2012-2014 should be Auburn's run.
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Mark my words, I just have a feeling, Frazier will be the starting QB by the end of the season.
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Mark my words, I just have a feeling, Frazier will be the starting QB by the end of the season start of the season.
Fixed that for you
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Mark my words, I just have a feeling, Frazier will be the starting QB by the end of the season.
Fixed that for you
Don't count on that. I think Frazier will play. A Kodi Burns type Wildcat role. Malzahn works very well with QBs, and unless Frazier comes in and is just THAT much better, Trotter will get the nod based on the little game experience, and experience with the speed of the game, even if it be at the practice level mostly.
Could Frazier take the job over late? Yes. Start game one? I'd be shocked if Trotter was THAT bad, or Frazier that good as a Fr. with a month in the system. And yes, I know he ran this, or very similar in HS, but there's still a learning curve, and he'll have to battle Trotter and Mosely to get the time he needs to take the job. That's the hard part...even getting the shot to take the job to begin with.
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72 scholarship players doeth not usually equal more than 6 or 7 wins.
2011 is just a year to survive.
2012-2014 should be Auburn's run.
(http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTYSN-bdtcaKEQ4W_JUURbr44zEU9Iq9nPYCHJxltInWRm_ED1XAw)
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Mark my words, I just have a feeling, Frazier will be the starting QB by the end of the season.
What about Trovon Reed? Cheating bastard.
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What about Trovon Reed? Cheating bastard.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZstBiJxXVw
Yeah he cheats everybody on the field.
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Well, if we're going to get nitpicky, he put them after the numbers.
:thumsup: