Realignment - the CFN Take

[Tiger Wench]

Realignment:  NOW What's Up?

By Pete Fiutak 

Are you having fun with the craziest offseason in college football history? USC is certainly thankful for the drama and coverage otherwise the talk would be all Reggie Bush all the time, but for conferences like the Big 12 and the WAC and for schools like Kansas and Missouri, these are nervous times as they try to figure out ways to stay relevant and viable.

Nebraska already jumped to the Big 12, Colorado signed on with the Pac 10, and Boise State took off for the Mountain West, but those were ripples compared to the tsunami about to come once Texas decides what it wants to do. From all indications, everything will be sorted out this week, so before the world becomes even more insane, here’s where everyone appears to stand, what might happen over the next several days, what CFN’s suggestion would be to go forward, and how the conference alignments are about to shake out.

A few things to keep in mind through this whole process. First, this is about business at the highest level; this isn’t necessarily a sports story. While it’ll be cool when Nebraska goes to Columbus and it’ll be interesting when Colorado and UCLA go at it, this is about TV contracts, bowl ties, academic reputation, and egos, egos, egos. While you might not necessarily get all gooey over the idea of Rutgers playing Illinois, the Big Ten Network types certainly do when they think about selling ad time and sponsorships with the New York market as a big part of the equation.

Remember, just because a tie-in might seem to make sense football-wise, it might not help the bottom line. The Big Ten doesn’t want Pitt because it already has Penn State and owns Pennsylvania. That’s why Maryland is being thrown around as an idea to expand the reach into new markets like Baltimore and Washington D.C.

Second, remember that the major players involved don’t quite know what’s happening here. Everyone’s spouting whatever needs to be said to keep the process moving, and the behind the scenes wheeling and dealing is changing the dynamic by the tweet. Remember, just a few days ago Nebraska head honchos were publicly saying how viable the Big 12 was and how it was a nice place to set up shop. 27 seconds after signing on with the Big Ten, it turns out the Huskers couldn’t get out fast enough and HATED being second-fiddle both economically and prestige-wise to the powers in the Big 12 South.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy your week.

ACC

The storm appeared to be passing by the ACC, but now it appears that the SEC, who doesn’t appear interested in Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami, at least for the moment, wants at least one school to round out the league if/when Texas A&M joins. Fortunately for the ACC, the SEC owns Florida with the Gators and doesn’t necessarily need Florida State or Miami, it owns Georgia with the Bulldogs so it doesn’t need Georgia Tech and Atlanta, and it has South Carolina with the Gamecocks and doesn’t really need Clemson. Maryland might be in play for the Big Ten, but about 75 other things have to happen before that becomes a real concern for right now.

Best Guess For What’s Next: The ACC will sit tight and keep as quiet as possible and hope Virginia Tech isn’t gone to the SEC. With FedEx CEO Fred Smith reportedly looking to get Memphis (where the company is based) into a BCS league by offering millions in sponsorship dough, the ACC should jump on the Tigers even if the report has been denied. The basketball program alone would help ease the loss of the Hokies a wee bit.

CFN’s Recommendation: ACC, learn the lesson that you taught everyone else … be proactive. Don’t be like the Big 12 and wait to be raided and picked clean; take Memphis and go get West Virginia, Connecticut, Louisville, and Syracuse to make the basketball conference a devastating killer, and create such a strong all-around athletic package that no one will want to leave. If some programs do end up taking off, the league will still be strong.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
Atlantic: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland (until 2012), NC State, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia

Big East

All the Rutgers to the Big Ten talk has gone quiet for the moment with Maryland now the hot rumor of the last week. However, that could change in a heartbeat once the Big Ten is ready to act. However, unlike a few years ago when the conference was caught off guard when the ACC swooped in and danced with their dates, the Big East higher-ups appear to be thinking ahead. While Kansas doesn’t make geographic sense, the basketball program would be a dream for the Big East, and that might not be where the expansion stops. However, the Big 12 North schools in play will most likely want to stick together and be involved more heavily in football, where the Mountain West might make more sense. For now, the league formulating plans for what happens if Rutgers and/or Connecticut are gone when the Big Ten figures out what it wants to do.

Best Guess For What’s Next: Rutgers is gone. The Big Ten would like to know what’s happening with Texas first, but the Rutgers part of the equation could be locked up in a hurry once the Big 12 situation becomes clearer. If the Big Ten doesn’t get some of the Big 12 schools, and doesn’t go after Maryland, Connecticut could be ripe for the taking.

CFN’s Recommendation: Put the full-court press on Kansas and Missouri and super-size the basketball side. KU and Mizzou (and Iowa State) would make a decent geographical match with DePaul and Marquette, and the football package would be far more attractive to keep other potential defectors from looking around. Along the way, lock up Memphis and the FedEx money (again, make the basketball conference gigantic) and take a look at East Carolina and UCF to expand the league.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Pitt, South Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia

Big 12

Depending on who you want to believe, the Big 12 and commissioner Dan Beebe have been a) stunningly naïve, b) grossly incompetent, c) trying whatever possible to keep the ship from sinking, all the while knowing almost nothing could be done, or d) all of the above.

However things shake out, the Big 12 has fumbled this from the start. This wasn’t like the ACC’s hostile takeover of the Big East a few years ago; EVERYONE knew Colorado wanted to go to the Pac 10 and Nebraska leaving was apparently a done deal from the second the Big Ten had an interest. Even so, the Big 12 and Beebe appeared to be stunned and hurt that this actually happened, and even if the reaction has been nothing more than a spin, it makes the conference look like it wasn’t able to take care of its own.

Where’s the backup plan? Where was the proactive thinking? Where was the move months ago to appease Texas instead of having to resort to politicking and lobbying at the 11th hour? Now, the Mountain West, THE MOUNTAIN FREAKIN’ WEST, is chirping about how it might be able to take over some of the Big 12’s teams.

The biggest question for the remaining non-Texas/Texas A&M teams is the same one that came up before all this started happening. Let’s say by some miracle that Texas does stay; why would anyone else want to stick around without a total overhaul of the revenue disbursement? In the catch-22, why would Texas stay if it didn’t get a sweetheart of a deal? Missouri has openly wanted to bail on the Big 12 desiring more TV and bowl money, and it’ll take off to the Big Ten the second it’s asked. The Big 12 can talk all it wants to about what it might be able to do with a ten-team league, but any package it puts together still won’t match up with anything the Pac 10 or Big Ten might create.

Best Guess For What’s Next: Either the remaining ten teams will stay intact with everyone getting around $20 million a year in an upgraded overall package, and with Texas getting a MAJOR sweetheart deal to stick, or it’s over. The deal is dead if the main players are out, and the Big 12 North types and Baylor, angered at the process from the start, will all try to go on to bigger and different things. If that doesn’t happen and the North teams stick around, the Big 12 will try to rally around the jilted schools and will try way, way, way too late to take on several Mountain West programs. It’ll get TCU and will bring on Houston and SMU to try to reform a Southwest Conference type of section, but it’ll be too late as far as national prestige. The Big 12 could become the new Mountain West, but it’ll be tough to keep the automatic BCS bid.

CFN’s Recommendation: The Big 12 should’ve been ahead of the game to try to venture to the Big East by going after Pitt, Louisville, and West Virginia while also bringing aboard TCU from the Mountain West to create a 16-team league that would’ve brought in more of the TV dollars that would’ve made everyone so, so happy. Instead, the league went into a prevent and got torched. At this point, the Big 12 needs to keep fighting to keep the teams from the South while making sure TCU, Houston, SMU, and Colorado State are on high alert.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
Either a mish-mosh of Conference USA teams with Baylor on board, or Game Over.

Big Ten

Once the Pac 10 started blabbing about wanting to invite Texas to its club, it became Game On for the Big Ten to go after one of the two big prizes in the realignment game (Notre Dame being the other), but that quickly became a dead story (or at least a very, very quiet one for the normally leaky key components).

After being the firestarter in the process with its talk of expansion, the Big Ten came up with a nice get in Nebraska, who, as it turns out, the Big Ten had at hello. The original plan was to go to 14 teams with Nebraska, Missouri, and Rutgers signing on, while keeping the door open for two more schools in the hopes of Notre Dame or, in a dream, Texas deciding to come aboard, and that doesn’t appear to have changed too much outside of Missouri being left to twist in the wind.

Rutgers is always going to be there for the taking whenever the Big Ten makes a phone call, but the idea of Maryland is also being explored to expand to another new TV market (hint hint … Penn State and Indiana are playing in Landover in late November).

Best Guess For What’s Next: No matter what else happens from here on, the Big Ten is a winner by getting Nebraska. However, the overall mission will be a disappointment if there aren’t more big fish about to jump in the boat. From a sports fan’s perspective, bringing in the Huskers is really, really cool, but from a business and expansion standpoint, Nebraska alone doesn’t accomplish the original goal of expanding the reach of the Big Ten Network to more big markets and pushing the conference out to the Atlantic Ocean. The Big Ten isn’t done, but with all the focus on figuring out the Texas situation, the Rutgers/Maryland side was put on hold and the conference went eerily quiet after the Nebraska press conference. In the end, the Big Ten will likely look like it was originally expected to after the speculation started up with Nebraska, Rutgers, and either Missouri or Maryland putting the league at 14 teams for two years before bringing in Notre Dame in 2012.

CFN’s Recommendation: Don’t make a lot of noise about it, but make sure Notre Dame is going to come in when it’s finally ready to make the jump. Soon, the Irish will have to make a call, and the Big Ten wants to finally make the marriage work. In the meantime, sign Rutgers and go get Maryland to expand into a new market.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
EAST: Indiana, Purdue, Maryland (in 2012), Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
WEST: Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Nebraska, Notre Dame (in 2012), Northwestern, Wisconsin

Pac 10

The conference pushed things along with its offer to invite Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech, and if nothing else, the pot has been stirred. Colorado was a good fit and it gave the league the Denver market, but the hope was for that to be the tip of the Big 12 iceberg. Texas A&M appears to have cooled to the idea, but Texas is still in play and Texas Tech and the Oklahoma schools are almost packed and ready to go. That doesn’t mean Texas is a done deal, but it would take something special for a SEC marriage to happen or for the Big 12 to survive with the Longhorns still in. Give the Pac 10 and commissioner Larry Scott credit; there’s a backup plan. The league is going to expand with or without Texas, and Utah appears to be the next target. If some of the Big 12 teams end up leaving for the SEC, the Pac 10 will grab Kansas to get up to 13 and then will weigh its options with Missouri and BYU part of the discussion.

Best Guess For What’s Next: The Pac 10 gets Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech, and it gets the big one: Texas. Way too many Oklahoma State insiders are leaking way too many things about leaving, and there’s no way the mighty T. Boones are going anywhere without Oklahoma. Texas A&M appears to be fine with going off to the SEC without Texas, and that doesn’t mean the rivalry still can’t continue.

CFN’s Recommendation: Keep on going after Texas while convincing Oklahoma and Oklahoma State that it’s time to escape from the Texas shadow. Many will moan the move of the Sooners to the Pac 10, especially after the fiasco in Oregon in 2006, but very, very quickly, the idea of OU vs. USC (even the sanctioned version) will sink in and get everyone fired up. Get Utah now, don’t bring along BYU for the ride, and go after Texas Tech with Kansas and Missouri on deck while the Big Ten and Big East are still hemming and hawing.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
NORTH: California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
SOUTH: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah

SEC

The SEC doesn’t need to expand, but it doesn’t want to be left out of the fun.

Strangely quiet throughout the whole process, it was assumed that the league would grab the ACC teams that made the most sense like Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami. As it turns out, that was just media speculation; the SEC had no interest in doing that.

Late in the game, the talks started up about getting Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma, but the league there appears to be little interest from many of the league’s schools to take on the Longhorns and Sooners to make an already brutal conference slate unplayable. Taking on A&M and Virginia Tech would be a big move that would expand and make everyone a lot of money, but it wouldn’t be nearly as brutal as it could be by adding the mega-powerhouses from the Big 12 South. The conference isn’t going to bend over backwards to offer any sweetheart deals considering Florida, Alabama, LSU, and others wouldn’t be too ecstatic by financially taking a backseat, even if that means getting Texas.

Best Guess For What’s Next: Welcome to the party, Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. Yeah, kids, the Aggies appear ready to leave the nest if there’s some sort of assurance that the rivalry with Texas can still go on. The SEC won’t get Oklahoma like it wanted, but it’ll get stronger and even more interesting with the A&M vs. Arkansas and LSU rivalries becoming special, and with the Hokies adding more prestige to the East.

CFN’s Recommendation: The league doesn’t need Texas or Oklahoma to be strong, but the last thing it wants is to suddenly see the new mega-conferences start to catch up to the pack when it comes to prestige (and TV deals). Get Virginia Tech and Texas A&M, and start working on Notre Dame  … now. That might sound insane considering how snooty the Irish faithful are when it comes to academics, but there could be a thought that the university doesn’t have to suffer as an institution of higher learning just because it plays in America’s elite football conference. You’re the SEC; act like it and go place a few phone calls to South Bend.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
EAST: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
WEST: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Mountain West

All of a sudden, the Mountain West has the potential to become a player. It desperately wants an automatic BCS bid, and getting Boise State is a nice step forward towards the goal. Proactive, the league is putting it out there that it wants to go after three of the remaining Big 12 North schools, Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri, and it actually might have the juice to do it. However, if there’s any sort of Big 12 left, TCU will be moving out while Utah appears destined for the Pac 10.

Best Guess For What’s Next: The league is trying, but getting Boise State isn’t going to be enough. Utah will be gone, but the Big 12 North teams, without the top teams from the South around anymore and with Nebraska and Colorado gone, will want to go where the fun is.

CFN’s Recommendation: Go get Fresno State and don’t stop pushing to get bigger and better. Keep trying for the remaining Big 12 North teams and be ready to pounce if Kansas and Missouri start freaking out that no one wants them.

Throwing the dart guess for how the league will look when everything settles down:
EAST: Air Force, Baylor, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU
WEST: Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Wyoming

[AUChizad]

Virginia Tech and Texas A&M, and start working on Notre Dame…now.

Yeah. Cause South Bend, Indiana is certainly in the Southeast...

WTF.

Actually, I'd be glad to take them. The media would act like it makes us that much stronger of a conference when Mississippi State is making them their bitch.

[Tiger Wench]

Yeah. Cause South Bend, Indiana is certainly in the Southeast...

WTF.

Actually, I'd be glad to take them. The media would act like it makes us that much stronger of a conference when Mississippi State is making them their bitch.

Yeah, made no geographic sense to me either...  I would hate playing the asshole Irish - but I guarantee it would get C in Auburn gear.  He LOATHES ND.

[AUChizad]

Another take from Birmingham News:
http://blog.al.com/solomon/2010/06/report_texas_committed_to_10-t.html

Orangebloods.com, the Rivals site for the University of Texas, reports today that the Longhorns have been convinced by Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe to salvage the conference. Texas has appeared headed to the Pac-10 with most of the Big 12 South. The site said Texas officials are expected to announce as early as today the school's plan to remain in the Big 12 -- or whatever you'd call it now with 10 teams instead of 12.

Then again, ESPN.com reports today the departure of Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the Pac-10 is imminent. One source told ESPN.com that Beebe's plan to save the Big 12 has "zero" chance to succeed.

So depending on your preferred choice of reading this morning, Texas is either committed to staying in the Big 12 or already out the door. That nicely sums up the rapid-fire progression of this ongoing expansion saga.

Could politics be involved in this? Absolutely. An announcement, or suggestion, by Texas that it's staying would presumably place the onus on Texas A&M. Do the Aggies jump to the SEC, or keep their roughly 100-year-old rivalry with Texas by staying in the Big 12? The Birmingham News previously reported that Texas A&M has the necessary votes from its board of regents to join the SEC.

Orangebloods.com suggests that if Texas A&M leaves for the SEC, it will trigger an exodus West for the Pac-10 by Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and possibly Kansas. If the Big 12 doesn't dissolve, the Pac-10 might simply add Utah and the seismic changes expected in conference realignment could subside, at least for now.

Beebe is stressing the value of sharing revenue with fewer Big 12 schools and collecting and distributing the departure penalties of Nebraska and Colorado. Under the plan, Texas could still pursue its own TV deal, something it would not be able to do in the Pac-10. Beebe's pitch also includes keeping natural rivalries intact and considering the interests of both fans and athletes.

Expansion is becoming increasingly political, as is usually the case. A key Texas lawmaker told The Austin-American Statesman on Sunday night he is confident that Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech will wait until after a legislative hearing on Wednesday before deciding their athletic futures.

All of which raises this perplexing question: If the Big 12 doesn't completely implode, do we then call the Big 12 the Big Ten and call the Big Ten the Big 12? Only in college athletics would we dare ask such a fundemental question about an organization's identity. Such is life in this ever-changing story. Stay tuned.