Recruiting Stars and NFL Draft...

[JR4AU]

Just for discussion...

1st round NFL Draft order/Rivals Stars

S. Bradford/3
N. Suh/4
G. McCoy/5
T.Williams/3
E. Berry/5
R. Okung/3
J. Haden/4
R. McClain/4
C.J. Spiller/5
T. Alualu/3
A. Davis/4
R. Mathews/3
B. Graham/5
E. Thomas/4
J. Pierre-Paul/4
D. Morgan/4
M. Iupati/2
M. Pouncey/4
S. Weatherspoon/2
K. Jackson/4
J. Gresham/4
D. Thomas/3
B. Bulaga/4
D. Bryant/4
T. Tebow/5
D. Williams/3
D. McCourty/2
J. Odrick/4
K. Wilson/2
J. Best/4
J. Hughes/2
P. Robinson/4

First Round NFL Draft
Total 5*: 5

Total 4*: 15

Total 3*: 7

Total 2*: 5

In a given recruiting year there are approx. 3000 recruits rated by rivals.  25 per team, give or take, and there are now what, 121 D-1 teams.  Their star rankings break down as follows:

5*- 25-30 per year
4*- 275-325 per year
3*- 700-800 per year
2*- 1,600-1,800 per year


> 5 star players make up only 1% of any given recruiting class, they make up @15% of first round draft picks. 

> 4 Star players make up around 10% of any given recruiting class, but nearly 50% of first round draft picks. 

> 3 Star players make up around 25% of a recruiting class, and about 25% of the first round draft picks. 

> 2 Star players make up better than 50% of all college rercruits, but only about 15% of first round draft picks.   

[Token]

Just for discussion...

1st round NFL Draft order/Rivals Stars

S. Bradford/3
N. Suh/4
G. McCoy/5
T.Williams/3
E. Berry/5
R. Okung/3
J. Haden/4
R. McClain/4
C.J. Spiller/5
T. Alualu/3
A. Davis/4
R. Mathews/3
B. Graham/5
E. Thomas/4
J. Pierre-Paul/4
D. Morgan/4
M. Iupati/2
M. Pouncey/4
S. Weatherspoon/2
K. Jackson/4
J. Gresham/4
D. Thomas/3
B. Bulaga/4
D. Bryant/4
T. Tebow/5
D. Williams/3
D. McCourty/2
J. Odrick/4
K. Wilson/2
J. Best/4
J. Hughes/2
P. Robinson/4

First Round NFL Draft
Total 5*: 5

Total 4*: 15

Total 3*: 7

Total 2*: 5

In a given recruiting year there are approx. 3000 recruits rated by rivals.  25 per team, give or take, and there are now what, 121 D-1 teams.  Their star rankings break down as follows:

5*- 25-30 per year
4*- 275-325 per year
3*- 700-800 per year
2*- 1,600-1,800 per year


> 5 star players make up only 1% of any given recruiting class, they make up @15% of first round draft picks. 

> 4 Star players make up around 10% of any given recruiting class, but nearly 50% of first round draft picks. 

> 3 Star players make up around 25% of a recruiting class, and about 25% of the first round draft picks. 

> 2 Star players make up better than 50% of all college rercruits, but only about 15% of first round draft picks.   

Nice research, and the theory holds true.  Assemble a recruiting class full of 4 star players with an occasional 3 or 5 star and championships will be in the future.

[JR4AU]

Nice research, and the theory holds true.  Assemble a recruiting class full of 4 star players with an occasional 3 or 5 star and championships will be in the future.

The "research" posted there deals more with individual talent, and the assesment of same, than it does with translating in to championships at the college level.  But generally what you say is true, though, I've seen some research that indicates that it's far less "scientific" in predicting how college teams will perform in the future, than it is how individuals will perform in the future.  As an example, and it's only one, but it's glaring...USC went 8-4 in the regular season this past year, and they fielded the following recruiting classes by ranking: 2005- 1, 2006- 1, 2007- 2, 2008- 8, 2009- 4.  That's a lot of highly ranked, underperforming upperclassmen.  Since 2002 (as far back as I can look on Rivals) Miami, FSU, Tenn, and ND have all fielded numerous top 5 to top 10 classes, and done absolutely nothing with them.  The have, however, produced loads of NFL talent. 

[jadennis]

Good additional info JR4AU, but don't forget that USC had kind of a "perfect storm" last year as far as how all their talent played out.  A lot of guys red-shirt, get hurt, transfer, or leave early for the NFL. 

All of those factors contributed to them losing nearly their entire defense to the NFL after the 2008 season.  No matter the talent, it's hard to have so many new players all at the same time....along with a freshman QB (which was due to losing their old one a year early to the NFL).

It's similar to how Florida went 13-1 in 2006, then 9-4 in 2007, then 13-1 again in 2008.  They had just as much, or more talent in 2007, it was all just young and without as much leadership.

It would have been interesting to see what Carroll would have done in 2010, to see if he bounced back or not.  History says he probably would have.  Will see how dick head does.