We know all about Alabama (still loaded but with a lit fuse for a coach), Texas (the bridesmaids), USC (can you be a one-season dynasty?), Ohio State (OSU = Overhyped Slow Underachievers), Florida (post-Tebow) and to a lesser degree Oklahoma and LSU. They'll either start out in the Top Ten or win a game or two and leap in there, giving each a legitimate shot at the national title over the next few seasons.
But of the rest, which teams have the best shot at putting themselves in that mix over the next five seasons? I'm going to visit only teams that have been there before with the understanding that there is always the possibility of a flash-in-the-pan Georgia Tech or BYU coming out of nowhere, but also the realization that national titles are really shared among a select few teams.
Notre Dame - Eight hundred and forty-three national championships (using Bama math) gives the Irish instant credibility, even if the most recent title came before rap was a form of music.
The media wants Notre Dame to succeed and will take every opportunity to prop them up. Add a new coach who showed some signs of college coaching life at Cincinnati and the odds of Notre Dame winning a title over the next five years is extremely high.
Michigan - The Wolverines claim 11 titles, but only one since 1948 (1997). They were close many times, but only closed the deal once.
Playing in the relatively weak Big 10 would give UM an advantage, but they don't have the right coach in the right place. Rich Rodriguez might eventually be able to remake the Wolverines in his Big East image, but it will take longer than the Michigan faithful will be able to tolerate. Michigan will be more likely to be involved in a coaching search than a national title hunt in the next five seasons.
Miami Last season proved that if the Hurricanes show any sign of life, the national media will leap on their bandwagon like a crack addict leaps on a $20 bill. The national media would like nothing better than to swarm on the Hurricanes and revisit their glory days. Five titles from 1983 to 2001 is an impressive run.
Playing in the ACC helps Miami because the conference really doesn't bring that much to the table. I still don't think the Hurricanes have the right guy at the helm, though. As crazy as it sounds, Saban is a perfect fit for that program. His lunacy would play well there and he would be able to rake in a ton of talent. For that matter, Tuberville would have thrived there, too. Give the 'Canes a defensive attitude adjustment and they could control the ACC.
Still, unless things change the quiet-to-the-point-of-meek demeanor of the current Miami coach could make it more difficult to return to the pinnacle. Behind ND, they probably have the best chance.
FSU Do you believe recruiting rankings? The Seminoles are entrenched in the top five cumulative rankings over the last eight seasons. The results on the field haven't hinted at the recruiting prowess, however. FSU claims 12 legit national titles, but only two are valid. The last came in 1999.
A change from Bobby Bowden to Jimbo Fisher is, in my opinion, unlikely to dramatically alter the landscape. Fisher was, after all, pretty much running the show for the last several years.
I don't sense any great media love or nostalgia for FSU so the Seminoles would have to work harder than a Miami or ND to gain a seat at the NC table.
Georgia Similar to Florida State. Consistently good recruiting, but not so much to show for it. Georgia's last NC came in 1980. The 2002 one-loss Bulldogs were probably good enough to play for the crown, but Miami and Ohio State usurped them by completing a less competitive regular season with an unbeaten record. The 2007 'Dogs tried to make an argument for inclusion in the BCS title discussion, but didn't even win their division. No sale.
UGA coach Mark Richt's Georgia career appears to be waning. It's too early to count the Bulldogs out, but getting back into the title conversation seems a long shot.
Nebraska As long as Texas and Oklahoma remain atop the Big 12 there's not enough room for the Huskers to squeeze back in the picture. Nebraska rode a solid defense to a nine-win season in 08 and ten wins in 09. But Bill Callahan reeled off eight and nine wins back to back before tumbling to 5-7 and out the door. The Huskers won't collapse that dramatically, but the forecast is that they'll be the third-dog in the Big 12 race for the next few seasons, leaving them out in the cold.
Three titles in the 90s and two in the 70s. Nebraska fans will tell you it's their turn in the 10s. Doesn't work that way.
Auburn The Tigers join Georgia as the only SEC team in the last decade to win an SEC title but not capture a national title. Auburn's undefeated 2004 team was denied a berth in the championship game when Oklahoma and USC went wire-to-wire in the top two positions in the poll -- despite both playing a lesser strength of schedule.
Prior to 2004 the Auburn program had been steadily building, but after that season some of the wind went out of the sails and the Tigers began what appeared to be a slow decline which bottomed out in 2008. After an abysmal 5-7 season, Auburn and coach Tommy Tuberville parted ways. The departure was more than the won-loss record, it reflected the dysfunctional disaster that plagued the coaching staff and distracted both the coaches and the players.
Like Florida State, Auburn is not a chic media pick. That stems in part from the fact that the Tigers have squandered goodwill when it was granted. The media latched on to Auburn in 2003 with one prominent writer noting that the Tigers had more assembled talent than many NFL teams. 2003 was an epic failure. The lingering effects from that burning no doubt hindered Auburn's rise in 2004. The media gave AU a pass in 2005 considering that the Tigers had to replace four first round draft picks on offense. In 2006, they were poised to make good their slight in 2004. Auburn went into the Arkansas game ready to vault into the top three and the thick of the national title hunt. Egg. Arkansas humiliated Auburn in Auburn. Even that was forgivable until Georgia romped over Auburn.
The goodwill window is closed. Auburn will have to prove itself. It won't be good enough to merely match the records of a USC or an Ohio State. Auburn will have to do something to set itself apart.
That's a tall order for a coaching staff with no championship credentials.
Others
Tennessee and Penn State also have possibilities, but like Auburn, FSU and Georgia mountains to climb. The Nittany Lions might get the sentimental vote if they make another run under Paterno.
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