What the results from 2009 will tell us about Gene Chizik.
If Chizik is a good coach, Auburn will win the games where the Auburn should have better talent across the board. There are four of those:
Louisiana Tech
Furman
Mississippi State
Ball State
He should win at least half the games where talent is relatively equal. There are three possibly four of those:
West Virginia **
Kentucky
Tennessee
Arkansas
He should win at least 25% of the games where coaching will have to trump superior talent. There are at least four of those.
Georgia
Alabama
LSU
Ole Miss **
This being the case, if Chizik is a good coach, Auburn should win a MINIMUM, yes, MINIMUM of seven games.
Things can go wrong, obviously, but anything less than seven that doesn't include catastrophic circumstances should be a giant red flag waving briskly in the breeze.
Barring the catastropic events not in their control, I think it would be a safe bet on the remainder of those first 4 being a lock.
FWIW, I think you can move UGA out of that last group...for now.
Overall, I think you're right...7 wins is the benchmark for at least saying: "Ok, now lets see how recruiting goes." I think in the eyes of "the talking heads" it would be 2-3 games better than originally expected, and I think if he somehow managed 9 wins, he'd be a contender for SEC CoY.
Another thought...there's some possible overlap in that first and second group. UT at least performed the way it should have against a lesser opponent, and UK looked fairly solid too. LSU struggled, and Ole Miss made some mistakes. Bammer struggled for 3 and a half quarters against a team they should have beaten by 3 TDs, and put away early.
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