Just read this piece from Andy Staples at On3. For someone on the outside looking in, I think this is spot on across the board for both teams, and more notably, coaches.
When I finished typing the following paragraphs about the Oklahoma-Auburn game back in August, I worried I was being a little too dramatic.
This one won’t get anyone fired, but it definitely feels critical for both teams simply by virtue of where it falls on the schedule. Oklahoma opens SEC play in Norman against Tennessee on Sept. 21, so the Sooners either will come in riding high after notching their first win in their new league or desperate to avoid an 0-2 conference start. The next time Oklahoma takes the field, it’ll be in the Cotton Bowl against Texas. Then the Sooners immediately face South Carolina and Ole Miss. (With Alabama and LSU waiting on the far end of the schedule.)
Not many teams have a stretch as gnarly as that, but Auburn can make the case. The Tigers play their first five games at home, and to have the kind of season they want to have, they may need to win all five. After Auburn plays Oklahoma, it hits the road to face Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky in a four-week stretch. A loss at home to one of the SEC’s newbies would make that stretch feel even more daunting.
Now? Three days before the Sooners visit the Tigers at Jordan-Hare, I worry I wasn’t dramatic enough.
It’s still true that no one is getting fired after this one. It will lack the stakes of the 2016 LSU-Auburn game. It felt going into that game as if the losing coach in that game would get fired the next day. And sure enough, Les Miles did. Neither Oklahoma’s Brent Venables nor Auburn’s Hugh Freeze have come close to that point in their journeys.
But the stakes this time feel daunting for both teams — and both coaches. Oklahoma already has benched the quarterback who was supposed to be The Chosen One in favor of a freshman. Not even the most skeptical Auburn fan — heck, probably not even any Alabama fans — imagined the possibility of the Tigers going 2-3 in those five consecutive home games to open the season.
A win Saturday offers a chance to breathe, if only for a moment. A loss could send the boulder rolling even faster down the hill. The tension will be palpable and unescapable, which should make for an incredible viewing experience for unaffiliated fans and pure torture for the fans of the two teams.
Let’s start with Auburn. The week’s discourse has revolved largely around Freeze, who threw quarterbacks Payton Thorne and Hank Brown under the bus in his press conference after Saturday’s loss to Arkansas. Thorne and Brown have combined to throw eight interceptions this season. Those picks have derailed an offense that averages an incredible eight yards a play. It is true that whichever QB starts Saturday — guessing Thorne — needs to cut down on interceptions. It also is true that Auburn pays Hugh Freeze $6.75 million a year in part to coach his quarterbacks to not throw interceptions.
Freeze also further shoved his sneaker down his throat Monday when, on his radio show, he offered this gem: “I love [Arkansas coach] Sam Pittman and I hope he wins the rest of his games, but I’m telling you the hard truth is we play them nine more times, we’d beat them nine times. And that’s what’s hard to take.”
That assumes a fumble into the end zone (that Arkansas recovered) and four interceptions were the only reasons Auburn lost. Let’s not forget that Arkansas had a three-point lead when offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino decided to stop throwing with 9:28 remaining. The Razorbacks ran 10 consecutive times, gaining 60 yards and winding up in the end zone almost six minutes later. That wasn’t the fault of Thorne or Brown, and that can’t happen again if the Tigers hope to make it through this next stretch with any wins.
The stretch, by the way, is brutal. Playing Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky on the road is bad enough, but even what was supposed to be the respite at the end is nightmare fuel. When Auburn returns home Nov. 2, it’s against Vanderbilt. Who is Vandy’s QB? Diego Pavia, who led New Mexico State to a 31-10 win against the Tigers at Jordan-Hare last year. Judging by the Commodores’ win against Virginia Tech and the way they pushed Missouri to overtime last week, Pavia’s new team is better than his old one.
So Auburn has to win Saturday. Not for Freeze’s immediate job security, because it’s clear no one in the Loveliest Village on the Plains wants another Bryan Harsin situation. Unlike Harsin, who was fired in the middle of year two, Freeze understands the recruiting assignment and seems to be landing the kind of players that can make Auburn competitive against anyone. But Freeze should have taken another QB out of the transfer portal this offseason, and he needs to win a few now and then correct that mistake in December. Winning less than Harsin did during his tenure — Harsin was 9-12 at Auburn; Freeze is currently 8-9 — will put Freeze in win-or-else mode next season.
Venables also desperately needs a win Saturday. The Sooners’ schedule is as rough as Auburn’s going forward, and a loss Saturday would send Oklahoma into the Cotton Bowl against top-ranked Texas in danger of starting 0-3 in conference play in its first SEC season with games against Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU still to go. (If LaNorris Sellers’ ankle heals as expected, the visit from South Carolina on Oct. 19 becomes iffy as well.)
Venables said Monday that QB Michael Hawkins Jr., who replaced Jackson Arnold in last week’s 25-15 loss to Tennessee, will start against the Tigers. Perhaps Hawkins is truly the better option. Arnold is a former five-star recruit and has been considered the future of Oklahoma’s program since he committed in January 2022, but it’s possible Hawkins is the better option behind a rebuilding offensive line and with few healthy receivers.
Like Auburn, Oklahoma needs to limit turnovers. Arnold threw a costly interception and generally struggled against a relentless Tennessee front. Hawkins moved the ball better against the Volunteers, so the move makes sense.
Plus, Hawkins may not need to take too many risks if Auburn continues to hand the ball to its opponents. Oklahoma ranks first in the nation in fumbles forced (eight) and fumbles recovered (eight). The ball isn’t always going to end up in the hands of a Sooner, but Oklahoma’s defense is actively forcing these turnover opportunities. The Sooners also have four interceptions. Oklahoma isn’t just opportunistic, though. The Sooners also have allowed only 4.3 yards a play. It stands to reason that they can keep the score low, which puts less pressure on the freshman QB starting his first game in a hostile road environment.
The Sooners aren’t facing the immediate gauntlet Auburn is, but with the Texas game looming, any positivity is needed. Oklahoma fans and athletic department employees grew sick over the past few years of people predicting the Sooners would struggle when they entered the SEC. They don’t want to see those doubters proven correct.
For Venables, the fear is less about hearing I-told-you-so and more about down-the-line job security. The thing those doubters don’t understand is that whether a member of the Big 8 or the Big 12, the Sooners figured out how to dominate. They won’t rest until they figure out how to succeed in the SEC as well. They won’t tolerate mediocrity, and Venables already has an unacceptable 6-7 season under his belt in 2022.
“Meh” is not an option in Norman. Nor is it one in Auburn.
Venables and Freeze need to win this one.
Only one can.
Get your popcorn ready.
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