Stat Tiger Proves It

[Snaggletiger]

I assume this is the same Stat Tiger writing for 247 as was on AU Gay Family.  Either way, I copy/pasta'd this piece, and to be honest, I could have stopped reading myself after the highlighted part.  Just verified what we've been harping on for years.  Hopefully, Co Harvinz and Co Boo Boo have a much different philosophy.


 During the past three seasons five teams from the Southeastern Conference have fielded a Top 10 offenses for pass efficiency. Alabama has done it three times while Florida, Georgia, LSU and Ole Miss have done it as well. Those five teams from the SEC have compiled a pass efficiency rating of at least 170 on seven occasions, averaging 44 touchdown passes per season.
All five accomplished this feat with an aggressive pass offense capable of stretching the opposition vertically and utilizing the entire field.
A challenge for the Auburn Tigers is that they face four of those five teams every year. Auburn compiled a 5-8 record against them from 2018-2020. Take out the 3-0 mark against Ole Miss and Auburn is 2-8 against the others.
Auburn’s new head coach, Bryan Harsin, and his offensive coordinator, Mike Bobo, must find a way of making their pass offense more explosive to be competitive in the Southeastern Conference. The average pass rating in the SEC from 2000-2002 was 124.9. From 2010-2012 it increased to 136.5 and from 2018-2020 it improved to 142.4.
Auburn teetered above the league average until the last three seasons with a pass rating of 127.7 from 2000-2002 and 141.9 from 2010-2012. The previous three seasons under Gus Malzahn saw Auburn drop below the league average with a pass rating of 130.6 from 2018-2020.



Auburn’s lack of a vertical passing attack under Malzahn was evident during his last five seasons with more than 50 percent of the passes thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage. The numbers in the vertical passing game are a chief concern when examining the conference numbers over the past three seasons. No team in the SEC threw more outside the hash marks than Auburn. From 2018-2020 the Tigers averaged 11.8 yards per completion, finishing 10th in the conference in this category. Alabama is No. 1 in the league, averaging 15.3 yards per completion.
When it came to generating pass plays of 15-plus yards, Auburn ranked ninth in the SEC with 15.4 percent of its passes resulting in an impact play. Five teams in the conference produced a percentage over 20 percent with Alabama leading the way at 26.8 percent. Auburn’s pass efficiency rating of 130.6 over the past three years ranked ninth in the SEC with five teams possessing a rating above 150. Alabama leads the conference with a pass rating of 198.6 from 2018-2020. The Tide leads the SEC in touchdown percentage at 11.3 percent. Auburn is ninth at 4.6 percent with six teams above 5 percent.
Examining all the wide receivers in the conference with at least 25 receptions during a season from 2018-2020 revealed how poorly Auburn compares to the other 13 teams. Auburn’s receivers averaged 12.37 yards per reception, No. 11 in the league. Six teams in the SEC averaged better than 14 yards with Alabama leading the list at 17.26 yards per reception.
Auburn was No. 12 in the SEC at 8.0 percent when it came to touchdown receptions by wide receivers. Seven teams in the conference were at least 10 percent led by LSU at 18.6 percent. Alabama was next at 17.4 percent followed by Georgia (14.9 percent) and Florida (13.5 percent).
When it came to pass receptions of 15 yards or longer, Auburn ranked No. 12 in the league at 26.7 percent. Five teams were above 35 percent led by Tennessee at 46.2. Only Vanderbilt and Kentucky’s wide receivers had a lower percentage of impact plays than Auburn’s group. No one in the conference has recruited at the level of Alabama when it comes to quarterbacks and wide receivers the past five years, but Auburn’s showing is more than talent-related.
Only Georgia signed more 4-star and 5-star wide receivers than Auburn from 2016-2020 with 15. Alabama and Auburn tied with 12 each followed by LSU (11) and Texas A&M (10). Outside of Alabama, Georgia and LSU, Auburn should have fielded a better passing game in the neighborhood of fourth to sixth in the league based on talent alone. Instead, Auburn was ninth-best in the conference from 2018-2020, which falls back on coaching, development and schemes.
With at least 145 yards rushing in a game Auburn compiled a 19-2 record from 2018-2020 and a pass efficiency rating of 145.5. When held under 140 yards rushing the Tigers compiled a 4-12 record with a pass rating of 114.5. Those 16 games included a 2-8 record against the opposition Auburn faces yearly.

Bo Nix looks for a receiver vs. Tennessee. (Photo: Jason Caldwell, Inside the Auburn Tigers, 247Sports)

 
Jarrett Stidham and Bo Nix performed in an offense heavily reliant upon the running game, leaving limited success when the pass offense was forced to be the central focus. When SEC teams ran for more than 145 yards the average pass rating in the SEC was 154.1 from 2018-2020. At its best Auburn’s pass offense was below average within the conference rankings. Auburn’s 145.5 rating was ninth-best in the SEC when rushing for over 145 yards.
During the 21 games Auburn ran for more than 145 yards from 2018-2020 the Tigers completed 61.8 percent of their passes, ninth-best in the league, where the average percentage was 63.7 percent. The league average for yards per attempt was 8.4 and Auburn finished at 7.93, ninth-best in the conference. All the teams combined in the SEC averaged a touchdown pass every 13.8 attempts. Auburn finished at one every 17.3 attempts, tenth in the league.
The team’s best under Malzahn from 2018-2020 was below the conference average under the same circumstance. When held under 140 yards rushing the SEC average pass rating was 127.9 while Auburn ranked No. 11 in the conference with a rating of 114.7. The Tigers averaged 6.06 yards per attempt during those games, 11th best in the conference.
Compounding Auburn’s offensive issues was a decline in the running game. The Tigers averaged 228 yards rushing per game from 2015-2017 and 177 yards from 2018-2020. This was a decrease of more than 22 percent during the last three seasons. Over the past three seasons Auburn threw the football within five yards of the line of scrimmage 52 percent of the time. That means the opposition could leave all 11 defenders within seven yards of the line of scrimmage nearly 80 percent of the time.
From 1981-2020 Auburn averaged 13.03 points by halftime against SEC opposition. The 2020 Auburn offense averaged 11.1 points, which was 27th among the last 41 Auburn teams. The Top 10 Auburn teams combined for a record of 102-27-0 and the remaining 31 teams compiled a 232-127-5 record.

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Of the 11 offenses he was involved with at Auburn including his time as head coach or a coordinator for Gene Chizik, Malzahn’s 2020 team was his worst when it came to points scored by halftime in conference play. Auburn’s 2020 pass rating of 109.9 during the first half was the lowest among the last 12 Auburn teams and No. 13 in the conference last year. Harsin and Bobo had more efficient pass offenses than Auburn over the past three years at Boise State, Colorado State and South Carolina.
Those coaches managed to do so with far less talent. During the recruiting cycles from 2016-2020, Auburn signed 33 players rated as 4-stars or better. Boise State, Colorado State and South Carolina combined for 17. Outside of his tenure at Georgia, the 2021 Tigers might feature the most talented offensive roster Bobo has worked with in a given year. His last offense at Georgia averaged 458 yards and 41 points per game, the kind of numbers Auburn fans would be thrilled to see sooner than later.

[GH2001]

Stat WAS and still is the only viable, palatable thing on Fambleee.....glad he writes for rivals now though too.