If this game were like LSU-Texas where the stripes allowed both teams to play fast and loose I would say we have an even chance to win this one.
We match up in talent and yes their defense can be gouged for big plays however their defense, like ours gets VERY stingy in the red zone.
We are taught to grab and pull a guy like Jefferson down if beaten. The worrisome flags come from our guys mugging a guy two seconds before the ball arrives. Otherwise they have a hard nosed stubby back with a hyphenated last name that's gonna get 60 yards and
Burrow will get loose a few times for 40 or so yards when good coverage leads to broken containment.
THIS IS WHERE BURROW IS THE BEST IN CFB...this season anyway. He improvises as he threatens to run then hurls one off his back foot ACCURATELY to a receiver that was once covered. They are NFL throws from a guy that reacts like an NFL QB.
Hurts is good but he doesn't have to do this and Burrow does it like it's second nature.
We can beat them if Nix has time to find Schwartz and Williams on early downs and our genius coach is unpredictable enough to make third downs almost non- existent.
We can't beat them in a phone booth it has to be in open field matching scores...and no not field goals.
As you mentioned LSU toyed with State and I've tracked quite a few of their games this year.
Opponents can move the ball on their defense but any team thinking they are holding their own against LSU by putting up threes are only fooling themselves.