I found this over on the Scout/ITAT site. Here is the link:
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=6#s=6&f=1010&t=1419313. Discuss.
I’m no historian but I’m going to try and address a lot of the issues that keep popping up on ITAT that are worthy of discussion and try and put a little historical data into the conversation. I do NOT have any inside sources. If I get things a little wrong it isn’t because I’m skewing the arguments, it is because I’m an idiot.
HC and coordinators - CTT took the reigns as HC at Auburn in 1999 after stabilizing the Ole Miss program from NCAA sanctions. The job to turn AU around would be no less difficult considering the state of the program after Terry Bowden’s midyear HC departure from the Plains. CTT brought his secondary coach (Lovett) as DC and Mazzone as OC. These guys were coordinators till the end of 2001. They were terminated for lack of production on the field (rightly so by most accounts) yet AU managed an SECCG appearance in 2000 (and lost for a second time that year to FL). CTT hired Chizik as DC and Petrino as OC for the 2002 season. (Good hires by most accounts). Petrino abruptly departed the following year to coach Louisville and offensive line Coach Nall was made OC with Coach Ensminger’s assistance. AU was preseason #1 in some polls to start the 2003 season but finished 8-5 (more on this later). Coach Borges was hired to correct the problems at OC for the 2004 season and the prior years #1 predictions were realized (kind of) in an undefeated season (more on this later too). Following the 2004 season Chizik left to coach at TX and was replaced by Gibbs, a former NFL secondary coach. After the 2005 season, Gibbs returned to the NFL and was replaced by Coach Muschamps as DC.
It is my opinion that coaching changes have been made when required to better the program. Sometimes you have to be a little patient to get the desired results, sometimes you have to cut your losses. CTT seems to be a patient leader that gives coaches the opportunity to prove themselves but is willing to stop the bleeding when it gets out of control. The one decision that gets rallied on is the one to let Nall/Ensminger become OC for the 2003 season. I don’t think this would have happened except for Petrino bolting after only one year for Louisville , and so late in the process. Others may recall the timing but it seems it was too late to have a full slate of available, qualified, outside candidates to choose from and the decision was made to promote from within. This of course only lasted 1 year as it was evident that the job was better suited for someone with better OC credential and Borges was hired. CAB has been getting a lot of criticism recently but under his tenure we have gone 13-0, 9-3, 11-2, and whatever this years record (more on this later). 9-3 came in 2005 after losing the entire backfield of NFL first rounders. For the most part, after the departure of Mazzone and Lovett, CTT has made good hires. You may consider Gibbs a bad choice but his record wasn’t too bad all things considered. The Nall/Ensminger thing seemed more of a backed into a corner solution rather than an ideal OC first choice but I could be wrong.
Championships – Since CTT took over at AU in 1999 (8 years) there have been 5 different SEC Champions and 4 different SEC West Champions. SEC Champs by ascending year starting in 1999 were AL, FL, LSU,GA, LSU, AU, GA, and FL. No team has won it more than 2 times in that span and only LSU has won it twice in less than a 4 year period.
The SEC West was won by (starting in 1999) AL, AU, LSU, Ark, LSU, AU, LSU, and Ark. LSU leads with 3 titles, AU and Ark tie with 2 each, and again, only LSU has won it twice in less than a 4 year span.
The SEC as we all know is a brutal conference and winning titles consistently is difficult. Recent history indicates that winning them back to back is improbable.
The BCS is even more of a crapshoot. Since CTT came to AU no team has won the BCS twice ( Miami should come with an asterisk due to the phantom PI call in overtime against OSU though). Oklahoma has played in the BCSCG 3 times, USC, FSU, Miami , and OSU have each played twice, and FL, LSU , NE , VT, and TX have each played once. AU would have played in the 2004 game except USC and OU were also undefeated that year and we have beaten that horse way too much so onto more interesting stuff.
Losses – It is a sentiment echoed loudly after each loss that CTT fields teams each year that are unprepared for games, lack emotion, and are poorly coached. There may be something to that so let’s look at losses year by year. Bold are less than 9 win opponents.
1999 – Lovett/Mazzone AU (5-6) lost to;
Miss 8-4TN 9-3
Miss St 10-2
FL 9-4
Ark 8-4AL 10-3 (SEC W and Champ)
2000 – Lovett/Mazzone AU (9-4) (SEC W) lost to;
Miss St 8-4FL 10-3 (SEC Champ)
FL 10-3 (SEC Champ)
Mich 9-3
2001 – Lovett/Mazzone AU (7-5) lost to;
Syr 10-3
Ark 7-5AL 7-5
LSU 10-3 (SEC W and Champs)
NC 8-5 2002 – Chizik/Petrino AU (9-4) lost to;
USC 11-2
Ark 9-5 (SEC W)
FL 8-5GA 13-1 (SEC Champ)
2003 – Chizik/Nall AU (8-5) Preseason #1 lost to;
USC 12-1 (AP MNC)
GT 7-6 (Followed USC humiliation at home)LSU 13-1 (BCS MNC, SEC W, and SEC Champ)
Miss10-3 (Obamanu drop game winner in endzone at end of game)
GA 11-3
2004 – Chizik/Borges (Undefeated 13-0, BCS #2)
2005 – Gibbs/Borges AU (9-3) replaced entire backfield, lost to;
GT 7-5 (multiple turnovers)LSU 11-2 (SEC W) (multiple missed field goals)
Wisc 10-3
2006 – Muschamp/Borges AU (11-2) lost to;
Ark 10-4 (SEC W)
GA 9-4 (multiple turnovers)
2007 - Muschamp/Borges AU (7-4 as of Nov 11th) lost to; *** boatloads of injuries
USF 7-3 (multiple turnovers)Miss ST 6-4 (multiple turnovers)
LSU 9-1
GA 8-2 To date we have lost to one 6 win team, five 7 win teams, six 8 win teams, six 9 win teams, nine 10 win teams, and six 11+ win teams over the course of nine years. After losing to 7-5 Ark and AL, CTT fired the OC and DC. The GT loss in 03 (Reggie Ball for 1 day Heisman Award) after being humiliated by USC at home as a preseason #1 seems now like an anomaly, except for the 2005 GT (Reggie Ball for Heisman #2). The 2007 losses to USF and Miss St were painful but in retrospect we did have many injured players and both teams were better than expected and came as last second losses. By my reckoning there are about 8 games over nine years we theoretically should have won and were beat.
Blowout losses - There really isn’t much input to give since it is kind of a relative concept so I’ll just give my opinion. There are just some days your gonna get your butt whipped. The reasons can vary from the whole team getting the flu, critical injuries, being distracted by rumors, to being so full of your media clipping you forget the other guy may just make you earn them on the field. Ask OSU or OU how it felt to get blown out, totally embarrassed on national TV in the BCSCG. Ask Michigan how it felt to lose to App St , a team not even in our division. Ask USC how it felt to lose to a 40 point underdog at home that hasn’t won more than 19 games in six years. Ask Notre Dame how it feels to go 1-9 after going 10-3 the year before. That is the reality of NCAA football, it happens, if you can’t accept it you are not realistic.
AU has to date NEVER lost to a team with a losing record with CTT as HC. What you believe should or should not occur is your opinion and you are entitled to it but the reality is no team achieves perfection. Even in AU’s 2004 undefeated season there were fans that complained that we didn’t beat opposing teams “bad” enough. There will NEVER be an AU team that will dominate the SEC the way these fans envision, under CTT or any other coach. Nor will any other SEC team.
We will be better if we fire……. – Again, I’m not connected to the inner workings of AU football or our staff. One day we may look back and CTT will have never won another SEC Championship or BCS title, or he may win them both next year. The problem I have with those that want to fire Coach X because of the on field product is that sometimes you have to work with what you have AND wait for the talent to develop. I remember watching Ben O drop a perfect pass in the endzone at home against Ole Miss that would have won the game for us. It was crushing, the first game I’d gone to in years. He turned out to be very reliable threat at WR but he didn’t start out that way. Sometimes the players have to grow into the role, some never do. This is a young team by all accounts and have done pretty well if you take all things into consideration. They must improve if we are to have a chance against FL and GA next year. Maybe we do wind up with some new coaches, that may or may not be a good thing. Nebraska thought change was needed when they canned Solich because 9 wins weren’t good enough. That hasn’t been such a great move in retrospect but who knows what would have happened if they kept him. The problem is NOBODY KNOWS, not me, not you, not even the people in charge of making those type decisions, and with that in mind I personally prefer someone that takes deliberate action after a reasonable period to make the correct changes and in my mind CTT has demonstrated the ability to do just that.
Philosophy – CTT doesn’t go for the throat, he holds the OC back. There may be something to this also. I have no clue if CTT decides that when we have the lead it is better to sit on it and rely on the defense rather than open up the playbook. Frankly, 99% of the rest of you don’t either. Yes, CTT did say he decided to do this during the Arky game this year and it nearly backfired…but it didn’t. There surely have been other times he has done this but I’m not sure it is a wholesale philosophy rather than a game by game gut feel. I suspect only CTT, Petrino, and CAB know if CTT meddles in the playcalling on offense aside from the occasional call for a fake punt, onsides kick, or special play, so the average fan speculating and considering their opinion to be fact is only speculating.
There are a few examples of when going for the throat can backfire by the way. LSU fans recall the game we rallied to score 3 TDs in the 4rth qtr because they refused to stop passing. The name Scissum probably rings a few bells too.
Winning is the objective in NCAA football. Under CTT from 2000 to date in 2007 (I have chosen to conveniently throw out the awful 1999 season due to the probation like status the program was under when he took over), AU has a 74% win percentage. That is 12th in the nation for that time period. First place is Boise State at 85%, TX 84%, OU 84%, Miami 82%, OSU 80%, USC 79%, LSU 78%, Louisville 77%, GA 77%, TN 76%, TCU 76%, and AU 74%.
Of the 3 SEC teams with better win percentages during the CTT years, the average recruiting rankings from 2001 to 2006 (as far back as Scout went) are as follows; LSU 8.33, GA 8.5, TN 8.33, AU 15.83. From this data it would appear CTT does a very good job of spotting talent and/or developing it.
From 1999 to 2007 CTT led AU teams hold the following records over SEC opponents, (only one team has a better head to head record against us, FL);
AL 6-2
Ark 5-4
FL 3-4
GA 5-4
KY 2-0
LSU 5-4
Miss 7-2
Miss St. 6-3
USC 2-0
TN 3-1
Vandy 5-0
CAB/Brandon Cox - Has he lost his edge? Where is the creative playcalling? What in the heck is going on with Brandon ?
CAB did a great job in 2004 when he had an NFL backfield and a QB that could throw 70 yards, and a veteran offensive line. Who wouldn’t? In 2005 he inherited another future NFL back and a QB that really can’t throw beyond 35 yards with any zip and accuracy. The upside was Brandon would stand tall in the face of a defender and throw a perfect strike, at least after the 2005 GT game. There have been 4 games lost from 2005 to 2007 with multiple turnovers. Personally, I understand the 2005 GT loss, it was BC’s first outing as the starter, one of the better DCs took apart our offensive line, we weren’t playing our best RB due to his “lack of blocking ability which were obviously needed), and Cox struggled. Since that time you have to ask is BC too reluctant to throw the ball to a WR that isn’t wide open? Does he have enough pass protection from his line? Are the WRs even getting open? KI was a big help to BC and once we established a strong running attack, Brandon flourished. Well, until GA 2006, when once again, we had multiple BC INTs due to some extent from his earlier injuries and relentless defensive pressure. Fast forward to 2007 and the most disturbing losses, the USF, Miss St , and UGA games. Granted not all of the turnovers in these games were BC’s fault, after all, when you hit the receiver and the ball ricochets into the air off his hand, is it really the QB’s fault? You can’t pin the RB fumbles on him though I do remember him having one this year that was lost on a sneak. When it rains, it pours. Even so, we nearly won the USF and Ms St. games in the last moments and had the O OR the D made one more play here or there this could currently be a 9-2 year instead of 7-4.
So what do you think about CAB? My opinion is we just are in a position to make lemonade. BC is an AU warrior through and through and I think he has represented us well on the field and snatched victory from the opponent on multiple occasions. I will cheer mightily for him in the Iron Bowl and our bowl game but without a doubt his strengths of game management and knowledge of our offense are compromised by his lack of ability to stretch the field. CAB must scheme around this fact and when the WRs are catching the ball, we usually win. Should CAB return for 2008 (and I hope he does), I think we will finally find out if he was a one hit wonder or if he can still scheme with the unpredictability of 2004.
In summary I’d like to express a few of my opinions. First, I’m just an AU grad that loves AU football. I’m not anyone special with keen insight into our program so I really don’t know if all our coaches carry their weight. I do know that statistically, CTT has done a damn fine job at AU and has done it in a way that reflects positively on himself, the team and the university. There is something to be said for making the players graduation and good character a trademark of our program.
If after wasting 2 evenings to write this I could achieve one thing, (other than being a gigantic tool) it would be this:
To unify the members of this forum in support of our coaches and team for 1 final game. I want so freaking much good karma coming from this board that it brings a smile to your face just thinking about the Iron Bowl. Positive energy people.
One common goal, to support this staff and team in their effort to beat the bunch from the west for a landmark 6th time. I know it can happen
War Eagle,
Gman87
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