Winners and Losers ( Let's play a game )

[AUTiger1]

I don't want to get in the middle of WWE Smackdown here, because I'm really only at this wrestling match to gloat from the sidelines.  BUT...

Your hypothesis only holds true if almost every voter who went third party voted for Clinton instead. 

Let's take Wisconsin's critical 10 Electoral Votes as an example primarily because Wisconsin was the closest of the "surprise" states. 

Here's how the voting broke down:

Donald Trump  1,409,467

Hillary Clinton  1,382,210

Gary Johnson  106,442

Jill Stein  30,980

Darrell Castle  12,179

Monica Moorehead  1,781

Rocky De La Fuente  1,561

Every third party vote in Wisc came up to 152,943.   Trump led by 27,247 in the final count. 

So for Clinton to win Wisconsin's Electoral Votes, she would have to capture 103,718 of the third party votes. (Half + 27,248).  That's 68%.   Even at 68% she wins by only a single vote.

Of every county in the entire state,  Clinton topped 55% in just two and 65% in just one.  She wasn't getting 68% of the third party vote. 

It might have been closer, but the wasted third party votes didn't hand Trump the election.  They were just wasted.  He would have won with or without them.

In Michigan she lost buy 11, 837 votes.  There was 242,867 third party votes.  Not to hard to think that she could pull 11K plus half in what has been a blue state strong hold since 1988.  She very easily could have won Michigan.  She needs 54% of that vote.  You stated that she only topped 55% in jut two times and 65% just one time.  Not true.

Washington - 55%
Vermont - 61%
RI - 55%
NY - 59%
NJ - 55%
Maryland - 61%
Massachusetts - 61%
Ill - 55%
HW - 62%
DC - 93%
Connecticut - 55%
Cali - 62%

With Wisconsin, which hasn't went red since 1994, it's not hard to believe that she could pull that many (68%) 3rd party votes.  Lot's of Independent and Bernie supporters did vote Johnson.  It's hard to estimate what those that decide to vote third party are going to do.  2000, what happens if Nader isn't running on the Green ticket in FL?  Chances are Gore wins.  I know that the pollsters were wrong.  Rasmussen and the LA Times nailed it.  They showed Trump with a 2+ lead in one and the other showed tied.  Once they added in the third party he took a higher lead and took the lead in the other. 

Not making a case for Hillary, but making a case that the third party vote does count and influences elections.  In the end it doesn't matter.  He won and hopefully he will make some decent Supreme Court Justices.  Only reason he got my vote and I know several more that voted for him the same reason I did.

You also forgot that Nick Saban got a vote in Alabama and Harambe got votes too. 


 

[Kaos]

In Michigan she lost buy 11, 837 votes.  There was 242,867 third party votes.  Not to hard to think that she could pull 11K plus half in what has been a blue state strong hold since 1988.  She very easily could have won Michigan.  She needs 54% of that vote.   As of the last last time I checked, Michigan wasn't called or considered in the total.  So she can even have that state and it won't change anything.


You stated that she only topped 55% in jut two times and 65% just one time.  Not true.
I was looking at every county in Wisconsin only.  How she polled in other states was irrelevant to my point.  In Wisconsin, where she would have needed 68% of the independent votes to go ahead by just one?  Wasn't going to happen.

Washington - 55%
Vermont - 61%
RI - 55%
NY - 59%
NJ - 55%
Maryland - 61%
Massachusetts - 61%
Ill - 55%
HW - 62%
DC - 93%
Connecticut - 55%
Cali - 62%
^^ Bunch of places that went to Clinton and don't matter in terms of their percentages

With Wisconsin, which hasn't went red since 1994, it's not hard to believe that she could pull that many (68%) 3rd party votes.  Lot's of Independent and Bernie supporters did vote Johnson.  Yes, it is hard to believe.  I think it's impossible actually when you consider the few counties that went blue and the majority that didn't

It's hard to estimate what those that decide to vote third party are going to do.  2000, what happens if Nader isn't running on the Green ticket in FL?  Chances are Gore wins.  I know that the pollsters were wrong.  Rasmussen and the LA Times nailed it.  They showed Trump with a 2+ lead in one and the other showed tied.  Once they added in the third party he took a higher lead and took the lead in the other. 

Not making a case for Hillary, but making a case that the third party vote does count and influences elections.  In the end it doesn't matter.  He won and hopefully he will make some decent Supreme Court Justices.  Only reason he got my vote and I know several more that voted for him the same reason I did.
I still contend that third party doesn't make much of a difference.  The only time I think it really did is when Perot pulled Bush voters and Bill took office.  I was wrong to characterize it as a wasted vote, but voting third party to me is sort of like being a South Alabama fan. What's the point?  You're going to have a good game or two and maybe fool yourself into thinking you can compete.  And then you get the reality. Why bother? 

You also forgot that Nick Saban got a vote in Alabama and Harambe got votes too.