STATS!
Never forget the 3 degrees of truth: lies, damned lies and statistics. Draw from these what you will.
Arkansas has faced the following schedule thus far (W/L; Total O; Total D):
LaTech - 4-3; #1; #109
TCU - 4-2; #18; #69
Tx St. - 2-4; #107; #112
TX A&M - 6-0; #17; #78
Alcorn St. - N/R; FCS
Bama - 7-0; #7; #14
Ole Miss - 3-3; #44; #83
That is an average (leaving aside Alcorn St) of #32 Offensive Total and #76 Defensive total. Leaving in only the P5 opponents, Arky has faced the average #22 Offense and the #61 Defense. They've split those games against the P5.
Auburn, in that span, has faced the following schedule:
Clemson - 7-0; #13; #23
Ark St - 2-4; #106; #75
TX A&M - 6-0; #17; #78
LSU - 4-2; #88; #10
LaMonroe - 2-4; #83; #97
Miss St - 2-4; #92; #29
Averaging the opposition gives us #67 offensively and #52 defensively. Removing the patsies and you get #53 and #35 defensively, and Auburn has likewise split the P5 opponents.
Let's examine the common opponent, TX A&M:
Arky lost that game 45-24 and only scored 7 in the second half (actually, in the 4th Q with about 6 minutes left on the clock) and had no real hope of mounting a comeback. Meanwhile A&M laid 21 on them in the 4th Quarter. That seems to speak to conditioning from the cheap seats.
Auburn suffered a similar fate against the Aggies, but the Auburn defense provided a stiffer test and allowed only 29 to the Aggies. The Auburn offense was stymied in the second half until garbage time just as the Hogs were.
So...what does it all mean? Looks like the Hogs offense has had the benefit of playing a softer schedule from a defensive standpoint and that has boosted their offensive ranking no doubt. That said, Allen is a gamer and his receivers are very good. They are using the pass to set up the run this year (which runs contrary to the media narrative which is bolstered mostly by Bielema's "rep" as an OLine/running game guru.) That said, the only defense the Hogs have experienced which lives in the neighborhood of Auburn's defense is the Bama defense. The Hogs took an L there, but did have some success moving the ball.
On the flip side of the ball, Auburn has been fighting an uphill battle, playing teams with an average defensive rating (P5) of 35. This, combined with the Clemson and A&M offensive fuckery, has skewed the perception of Auburn's offense. We're undervalued at #42 in total offense and I expect to show the Hogs that you can't make a living in the SECW with a total defensive ranking in the 90s...#91 to be exact. If your defensive totals rank outside 70ish, Auburn drops these point totals on you: 51, 58 and 38 (that last one was on a hapless, but highly ranked MSU defense...#29).
If the Tigers perform on offense with the continuity they have recently shown and continue to pound the run to set up White to Stevens/Smith/Slayton/Davis, I think they feast on the Arky defense. Similarly, I think that the Auburn defense will continue to progress as a unit and the DLine will have a field day with Arky's struggling hogmollies.
I predict...
Auburn 35
Arky 17
216 Replies
30094 Views