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Has 2 Great Seasons Masked the True State of the Program? (Whimsical and Long)

Is Auburn the new Ole Miss? Or perhaps a comparison is poor rhetoric - Is Auburn just an average, or maybe even, shit SEC program compared to the Joneses right now?

Looking at the Past

In a different thread, Kaos said this:

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As prickly as Tuberville was, ten years straight we were competitive every year.  Like Dye he brain farted a game or two a year, losses that maybe kept us from being what we could have been. 

That consistency seems, to me, to be better than the ridiculous highs and puzzling lows we're experiencing the last seven.

There's something to his comment, and I'm trying to put my finger on it. It's an argument that resides in the heart of this fact: We were a better program under Tuberville than we are now.

As someone who has only recently felt the wetness of his feet concerning Auburn football - currently experiencing his 13th season as a fan - I have definitely begun to understand that what we had in Tuberville's era was different than what we have now. It was very safe watching Auburn football for the most part. We would have a salty defense, a strong running game, and a passing game that was about as exciting as watching paint dry.

I used to know we would win or lose after watching the team play in the 1st quarter. Is the running game pushing the line of scrimmage? Defense making stops at the line of scrimmage? Quarterback hitting a few play action passes?

We win.

Even in big close games, I typically knew we had it in the bag. How many times did the opposing team in a big game have the ball with the chance to drive the field to tie or win or make it competitive at the end of the 4th? And how many times did those games end with an interception, fumble recovery, or turnover on downs?

Quite a few.

In games where the running game wasn't working? Quarterback wasn't throwing the ball well?

We probably lose. But not by much.

In 2003, it was considered an abomination of a season. The opening two games were some of the worst losses in Auburn history if you ask fans. But were they? Were you really THAT embarrassed watching it?

Sluggish. Frustrating. Sure.

USC came into Jordan Hare and BLEW US OUT. By definition, sure. Shut out at home. 23 point deficit.

It was 10-0 at halftime. 16-0 at the start of the 4th. We held USC to just over 300 yards of total offense. They didn't run or throw all over us like you might remember they did. They didn't even have a 100 yard rusher.

Even that Georgia Tech game was only 10-3 at halftime.

The losses, even the bad ones, felt different. Because they were different. You didn't have an entire stadium having a four hour orgasm that was prepped a week in advance because they knew they would just run track sprints on us while embarrassing our players.

But back to the 2003 season - even though we stunk it up early (at least, on one side of the ball), we still upset two ten ranked teams in Arkansas and Tennessee. We also beat Wisconsin in our bowl game.

In 2006 we could have played for the BCS championship game if we hadn't let Arkansas blow us out. But go back and look at that blowout. It was bad. Was it that bad?

It was 17-10 at halftime. Their offense didn't eclipse the 400 yard mark. Take away a freak trick play and one long busted run by McFadden, and does Arkansas even win?

Consider 2008, Tuberville's worst season. While I hated losing so many games, I only remember feeling downright embarrassed twice. The 2nd half of the West Virginia game and the Iron Bowl. We were one score away from winning five games that year. I mean, honestly, if we had kept the same ole Al Borges boring play calling, is that a 10-2 season? Could he have not gotten us one more score in each game considering Tony Franklin was the worst OC hire of all time and firing him midseason only made the offense worse?

tl;dr - Tuberville's era was a dominant one. We could have won every game we were in. The overwhelming majority of the ones we lost were due to sluggish play by the offense. Even if we were "getting blown out," the team was still in contention to win late in the game. You typically knew what to expect from the Auburn Tigers week in and week out from the year 1999 until 2008, and your expectations were typically met.


Why was that?

Obviously recruiting plays a big part, but I think Tuberville's knack was developing players. How many times did we hear about diamonds in the rough?

It was dead-on accurate.

Because Tommy Tuberville and his coaching staff could develop guys to be competitive SEC-caliber football players. Even Tuberville's softest teams were stout compared to what we're seeing now.

Alabama fans like to say that Tuberville was able to have so much success because they were "down." Their sanctions kept them from recruiting well, which killed their ability to actually be competitive. Perhaps they were right. Perhaps not.

Maybe I don't know what it was about Tuberville's teams that made them so consistent and good. But I'm longing for bitching about the offense only getting 300 yards of offense instead of bitching about players playing leap frog instead of tackling.

Anyone know the answer?

tl;dr - I don't know why Tuberville's teams were so good. Anyone know? He didn't dominate recruiting. He let some 5 stars go to Bustville. They actually weren't that great considering he let a few championship-caliber teams underperform in meaningful games. Yet he always had them back fighting, looking like the same ole Tuberville teams he always has.


Where are we?

The true point of this post - Where the hell are we?

Who are we?

We have no identity. I think that's what this writing exercise has led me to. We have no identity because of something no Auburn fan has maybe considered or if they have, hasn't wanted to discuss or admit:

Two great seasons have made us think we're better than we are.

We are since 2009:

2-5 against LSU (3 losses as blowouts)
2-4 against Georgia (3 losses as blowouts)
2-4 against Alabama (2 losses as blowouts)

We've blown out LSU once. The other five wins against our main rivals have been absolute dogfights for us to get a victory.

That's not to even mention that our record is rather shitty against these teams going further back:

2-8 against LSU over the last ten meetings.
3-7 against Georgia over the last ten meetings.
5-5 against Alabama over the last ten meetings (which kinda supports their "we were down" argument considering we didn't really beat the other big dogs of the conference).

There's something else here, though. What is it? What is it?

In 2010, we had what I believe was the GOAT football player. I would not pick anyone over Cam Newton if I was starting a team. He'd be my first choice over Bo, Herschel, Tebow, Manziel, Flutie, whoever.

In 2010, we could have and should have lost to Miss State and Clemson. This isn't to say that the close games could have gone either way - no, we should have lost those football games. Both games the opposing team had wide open players to give us the loss that dropped the ball.

In 2010, we could have lost to South Carolina, Kentucky, and Alabama. All three of those games needed Herculean performances that lasted late into the 4th quarter.

In 2011, we nearly lost to Utah State and Miss State. Also that year, we got blown out by Georgia, LSU, and Alabama. Gave Dabo Sweeney a good time in Clemson.

In 2012, it was the worst season of all time for any SEC team in history. Utter shit, and oh yeah, could have lost to LA Monroe.

In 2013, we were a good football team, but let's be honest, we struggled with Washington State and Mississippi State. We also needed a miraculous play to beat Georgia.

In 2014, we nearly lost to Kansas State and South Carolina. We were curb stomped by Georgia.

I don't know where I'm really going with this. Here's the overall point:

tl;dr - With Tuberville, we were two steps away on offense from being a perennial championship caliber team that competed with and often defeated our rivals. We KNEW it every year.

With post-Tuberville, we ARE two steps away as a whole team from being a lower tier SEC program. Every game, I sit and wait to see what LSU did to us last Saturday. Just about every game, the other team will run all over us or pass the ball. We'll miss tackles. We'll make mistakes. If our offense can keep up? Great. It'll be an exciting game to the finish even if it's against a god damn FCS team. If our offense is sputtering at all? Embarrassing blowout that tarnishes the program's reputation.
 


And that's it. I literally have just been typing and thinking this through, but I've finally reached what I wanted to say. We're the new Ole Miss. I think this is what Ole Miss has felt like since Cutliffe was there. When they're bad, it's REALLY bad and embarrassing. When they're good, they almost could have been bad.

Only difference is that we've been lucky to squeeze out two seasons to make us feel better about ourselves.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2015, 10:55:48 PM by Townhallsavoy »
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eagleair89

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understand (kinda) what you are getting at.   I did a comparison of uga and AU since Richt became there coach in 2001. They have 15 more wins than us overall and about 10 more wins in conference.  uga has 2 SEC titles and some good steady competitive years with no real drop off.

Auburn, during the same time, has won 3 SEC titles and played for 2 national titles, winning one. (Plus a Heisman).  AU has also had some underperforming years and two really bad years (2008 & 2012) and 2 perfect seasons.

The question is (imho) what do you want…….consistently competing but not quite getting there or the excruciating lows along with fantastic (and almost unbelievable) accomplishments?

No matter how low AU falls, we seem to find a way back up the mountain…..as high as we try to climb and stay there we seem to always fall back down a ways and the cycle continues.

….…….i like the titles and fantastic finishes.   :bar:
« Last Edit: September 20, 2015, 11:24:31 PM by eagleair89 »
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Ole Miss hasn't done one gawt damn thing since Archie Manning was there and even that wasn't much.  We are not Ole Miss. Never have been.  Never will be.

eagleair nailed it.  Auburn football is and always has been a rollercoaster ride.  Lots of highs.  Occasional lows,  Very little consistency. We have the players, facilities, yes...coaches to compete for championships right now.  Just something wrong with the chemistry of the whole thing.   
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Has 2 Great Seasons Masked the True State of the Program? (Whimsical and Long)
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2015, 08:37:17 AM »
Ole Miss hasn't done one gawt damn thing since Archie Manning was there and even that wasn't much.  We are not Ole Miss. Never have been.  Never will be.

eagleair nailed it.  Auburn football is and always has been a rollercoaster ride.  Lots of highs.  Occasional lows,  Very little consistency. We have the players, facilities, yes...coaches to compete for championships right now.  Just something wrong with the chemistry of the whole thing.   

Well, look, I tried to hedge the Ole Miss comparison. So we're not Ole Miss. We're different than that.

But I still the say the program we built in 2009 has been a facade.

How often does Auburn give up 30 points? Well, from 1981-2008 (28 years), Auburn gave up 30+ points 37 times. We played a total of 330 games in that period. So, Auburn gave up 30 or more points in ~11% of its games.

How about now? From 2009 to 2015 (5 years, 1/3 of a year), Auburn has given up 30+ points 35 times. We've played a total of 82 games in this period. We're giving up 30 or more points in ~43% of our games.

No program can have sustainable success in the SEC built on having to score at least 30 or more points in order to have a chance at winning. Yes, Malzahn has been spectacular when he has a good quarterback. But because of the way the team has been built, if we don't have a good quarterback? There's no contingency plan. You can't rely on the defense to win any games for us. This is especially dangerous when dealing with college students. Young adults have the potential to screw up as quarterbacks. If you get a lemon, you have to be able to gameplan around him and we can't. We haven't been able to in almost six seasons.

As I said in another thread, this team - especially the defense - is soft. The defense has been soft as jello pudding since 2009. We were salty in 2010 because had a big playmaker who came through for us at the right times. But the other times? We're often in a shootout with teams and programs that should be considered inferior to us on every side of the ball.

So I disagree with the "rollercoaster" excuse for Auburn. Auburn has not always been this kind of a rollercoaster because it has been a better program than it is now. We have been competitive on defense and serviceable on offense. That kind of program kept us in games and allowed for us to make something of a season even when we didn't have all the tools together to win a championship.

Now we have the same kind of problems Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky have. I don't think we have any reason to believe that our team as a whole will be week in, week out, year in, year out competitive because we're devoid of talent; we're young; we need a new coach here or there; and one player or two can bring the whole thing down. Name your excuse not just for losing a few games you don't want to lose but for not having a chance at winning games against tier 1 programs.

Hope I'm wrong. I hope Malzahn fixes JJ, fixes the offense, or brings in a new QB. I hope we go on to win 9 or 10 games and compete with the other SEC teams INCLUDING Georgia and Alabama. But I'm pretty sure this team is going to struggle to make a bowl game. We probably will make one. We can beat Arkansas and Kentucky and maybe Miss State. Because they suck and that's what we've resorted to. We can rely on competing with teams that suck, but the way it looks right now? We're going to be lucky to even make it past the 1st quarter against the better programs in the SEC.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 08:40:14 AM by Townhallsavoy »
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The Guy That Knows Nothing of Hyperbole

We can beat Arkansas and Kentucky and maybe Miss State. Because they suck and that's what we've resorted to. We can rely on competing with teams that suck, but the way it looks right now? We're going to be lucky to even make it past the 1st quarter against the better programs in the SEC.

Can we?

I'm sick of our program looking at Miss State and Arkansas as games we have to win to even make a bowl game.  We used to write in those games with a W, and we'd look to UGA and LSU and Bama as the games to define the season. 
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GH2001

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Can we?

I'm sick of our program looking at Miss State and Arkansas as games we have to win to even make a bowl game.  We used to write in those games with a W, and we'd look to UGA and LSU and Bama as the games to define the season.

THIS...all of it.
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Kaos

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Can we?

I'm sick of our program looking at Miss State and Arkansas as games we have to win to even make a bowl game.  We used to write in those games with a W, and we'd look to UGA and LSU and Bama as the games to define the season.

The definition is pfffttt this season.
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If you want free cheese, look in a mousetrap.

The definition is pfffttt this season.

Auburn Football shouldn't be a queef.
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dallaswareagle

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Auburn Football shouldn't be a queef.


We are not even that this year.
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A veteran is someone who, at one point in his life, wrote a blank check made payable to 'The United States of America ' for an amount of 'up to and including my life.' That is Honor, and there are way too many people in this country who no longer understand it.'

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Can we?

I'm sick of our program looking at Miss State and Arkansas as games we have to win to even make a bowl game.  We used to write in those games with a W, and we'd look to UGA and LSU and Bama as the games to define the season.
I don't disagree but you are looking at things the old school way, these aren't the Miss St. and Arkansas of old, they are quality teams now.  Should we always figure to beat them yes, will we always beat them no.

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dallaswareagle

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I don't disagree but you are looking at things the old school way, these aren't the Miss St. and Arkansas of old, they are quality teams now.  Should we always figure to beat them yes, will we always beat them no.

Ole miss has gotten better.


Miss St and arky? We gotten closer to them more so than them coming up to us.  :facepalm:
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A veteran is someone who, at one point in his life, wrote a blank check made payable to 'The United States of America ' for an amount of 'up to and including my life.' That is Honor, and there are way too many people in this country who no longer understand it.'

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THS, great comparison and analysis.  I will try to answer some of based on my own thoughts.

1st you are some what looking at Tubs years through rose colored glasses.  Yes we were probably more consistant but there were several beat downs of epic proportions.  Tubs teams always had some of the same issues we face today.  If we were supposed to win we struggled, and if we didn't have a chance we would find a way to win.  You also have to keep some things in mind.  The caliber of football in the SEC is not what it was back then.  As jarhead said Ole Miss and Miss State were pretty much wins every year, a non-Huston Nutt Arkansas team was a win every year.  The caliber of SEC football has risen to a very difficult standard.

Second I believe some of it goes back to the win it all, right now methodology (and it doesn't help that your top hated rival just seems to reload every year).  My belief is that part of our problem currently is the switching of coaches.  Now Tubs needed to go, don't get me wrong.  Not necessarily because he was a bad coach, but the powers that be wanted him out (including Jay Jacobs) since Jetgate.  Tubs kept winning and basically said fuck you especially after 2004.  As soon as he had that one bad year, he was gone.  I think he would have turned us around, but you could tell he was done.  He was tired of fighting with the head honchos and quite frankly I think he was burnt out.   Folks joked back then that when he "resigned" that he was fired.  I honestly think he did resign, albeit with pressure to do so.

In comes Chizik and 4 years later now Malzahn. As I stated in another thread, rapid succession of new coaches does not make a program successful.  Look at UT, they had a great coach in Fulmer, but the grass is always greener or so they thought.  They have yet to recover from his firing in 2008. 

I'm not saying that firing Chizik was the wrong thing, I believe it was.  Gus may or may not be the right thing for our program either, however I believe you have to give the guy a chance of at least 4-5 years.  That being said though I still think the biggest problem is the win it now attitude.  Look there are many coaches who started out mediocre.  Bryant was 5-4-1, 7-2-2, 8-1-2 over his first 3 seasons. Bobby Bowden was 5-6, 10-2, 8-3 over his first 3.  In todays atmosphere both of those coaches would probably be on a very short leash.  Hell look at bammers 10 year record as they went through coaches on the quest to find the Midget. It was a series of ups and downs.

My reason is stability within the program and that comes from the head coaching position. 

So are we are own worst enemies? I think so. 

You have to ask yourself would you trade 2010 and a NC for being a constant Georgia? Even their fans aren't happy, we are never happy.
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THS, great comparison and analysis.  I will try to answer some of based on my own thoughts.

1st you are some what looking at Tubs years through rose colored glasses.  Yes we were probably more consistant but there were several beat downs of epic proportions.  Tubs teams always had some of the same issues we face today.  If we were supposed to win we struggled, and if we didn't have a chance we would find a way to win.  You also have to keep some things in mind.  The caliber of football in the SEC is not what it was back then.  As jarhead said Ole Miss and Miss State were pretty much wins every year, a non-Huston Nutt Arkansas team was a win every year.  The caliber of SEC football has risen to a very difficult standard.


How many times have we watched football games that were embarrassing or nearly embarrassing?

Yeah, it's rose colored glasses, but these roses smell wonderful. I remember being pissed about some losses in the Tuberville era. I was shaking my fist for him to be fired in 2008. I thought 2008 was the worst thing that could have happened to Auburn football.

But it wasn't. Hell, even some of our wins the past six years have been worse than some of those losses from the Tuberville era.

Chizik and Malzahn are good about getting fight out of our team. This season (and 2012) are hopefully just uncharacteristic for them. I hope 2015 doesn't turn into 2012 because I know that even when our team had every reason to give up, they typically don't. Though I do think this team looks like they will.

I don't think there was ever a Tuberville team that didn't fight until the bitter end except for one game in 2008. Shit even then, the game was winnable at halftime. 

Quote


Second I believe some of it goes back to the win it all, right now methodology (and it doesn't help that your top hated rival just seems to reload every year).  My belief is that part of our problem currently is the switching of coaches.  Now Tubs needed to go, don't get me wrong.  Not necessarily because he was a bad coach, but the powers that be wanted him out (including Jay Jacobs) since Jetgate.  Tubs kept winning and basically said fuck you especially after 2004.  As soon as he had that one bad year, he was gone.  I think he would have turned us around, but you could tell he was done.  He was tired of fighting with the head honchos and quite frankly I think he was burnt out.   Folks joked back then that when he "resigned" that he was fired.  I honestly think he did resign, albeit with pressure to do so.

In comes Chizik and 4 years later now Malzahn. As I stated in another thread, rapid succession of new coaches does not make a program successful.  Look at UT, they had a great coach in Fulmer, but the grass is always greener or so they thought.  They have yet to recover from his firing in 2008. 

I'm not saying that firing Chizik was the wrong thing, I believe it was.  Gus may or may not be the right thing for our program either, however I believe you have to give the guy a chance of at least 4-5 years.  That being said though I still think the biggest problem is the win it now attitude.  Look there are many coaches who started out mediocre.  Bryant was 5-4-1, 7-2-2, 8-1-2 over his first 3 seasons. Bobby Bowden was 5-6, 10-2, 8-3 over his first 3.  In todays atmosphere both of those coaches would probably be on a very short leash.  Hell look at bammers 10 year record as they went through coaches on the quest to find the Midget. It was a series of ups and downs.

My reason is stability within the program and that comes from the head coaching position. 

So are we are own worst enemies? I think so. 

You have to ask yourself would you trade 2010 and a NC for being a constant Georgia? Even their fans aren't happy, we are never happy.

I think I would be happier with Richt than what we've had.

I don't know. I think I'm evolving in my thinking about this. 2010 was fun and Cam Newton is the GOAT and my favorite football player of all time. The guy was phenomenal and what that team accomplished was legendary.

But did I really like gritting my teeth as we struggled against a shit Clemson team? Should have lost to Miss State? Needed a heroic drive to beat Kentucky? The absolute embarrassing performance of the 1st half of the Iron Bowl?

It solidified those players as some of the most special players to ever put on the uniform. But when looking at that team in combination with the others from 2009-2015? Not sure I'm actually that proud of the program. Even with the hardware.
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The Guy That Knows Nothing of Hyperbole

Godfather

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How many times have we watched football games that were embarrassing or nearly embarrassing?

Yeah, it's rose colored glasses, but these roses smell wonderful. I remember being pissed about some losses in the Tuberville era. I was shaking my fist for him to be fired in 2008. I thought 2008 was the worst thing that could have happened to Auburn football.

But it wasn't. Hell, even some of our wins the past six years have been worse than some of those losses from the Tuberville era.

Chizik and Malzahn are good about getting fight out of our team. This season (and 2012) are hopefully just uncharacteristic for them. I hope 2015 doesn't turn into 2012 because I know that even when our team had every reason to give up, they typically don't. Though I do think this team looks like they will.

I don't think there was ever a Tuberville team that didn't fight until the bitter end except for one game in 2008. Shit even then, the game was winnable at halftime. 

Sorry brother I like Tubs he will always be an great Auburn Coach (unlike some I would like to forget).  However you are not remembering some of the games under him.

2000 vs UF 38-7
2000 SEC Game vs UF 28-6
2001 @ Arky 42-17
2001 vs bama 31-7
2002 vs Arky 38-17
2003 LSU 31-7 which if I remember was one of the worst games I have ever seen us play.
2003 UGA 26-7

We had our fair share of blowout losses under Tubs, too. With near identical conversations that took place at a different forum.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 03:27:42 PM by Godfather »
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Sorry brother I like Tubs he will always be an great Auburn Coach (unlike some I would like to forget).  However you are not remembering some of the games under him.

2000 vs UF 38-7
2000 SEC Game vs UF 28-6
2001 @ Arky 42-17
2001 vs bama 31-7
2002 vs Arky 38-17
2003 LSU 31-7 which if I remember was one of the worst games I have ever seen us play.
2003 UGA 26-7

We had our fair share of blow losses under Tubs, too. With near identical conversations that took place at a different forum.

Right. But don't forget that I freely admit that I became an Auburn fan in 2003. I am of the spoiled generation that didn't even know what an Iron Bowl loss felt like until I was 8 years old in Auburn years.
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GH2001

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Sorry brother I like Tubs he will always be an great Auburn Coach (unlike some I would like to forget).  However you are not remembering some of the games under him.

2000 vs UF 38-7
2000 SEC Game vs UF 28-6
2001 @ Arky 42-17
2001 vs bama 31-7
2002 vs Arky 38-17
2003 LSU 31-7 which if I remember was one of the worst games I have ever seen us play.
2003 UGA 26-7

We had our fair share of blow losses under Tubs, too. With near identical conversations that took place at a different forum.

Did Fred Talley just score again?
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Did Fred Talley just score again?

No, but he just ran by my window.
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Two things: 

1) defenses everywhere average more points surrendered these days due to the evolution of the game

2) Richt has the luxury of being THE program in Georgia.  Would you really want to consistently under achieve while watching/listening to the crimson horde stack hardware?  We demand more and...we get it.  Sometimes.  Better than never.
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You can keep a wooden stake in your trunk
On the off-chance that the fairy tales ain't bunk
And Imma keep a bottle of that funk
To get motel parking lot, balcony crunk.

Godfather

  • Chapter
  • ****
  • 21263
  • He knows!
    • Tigers X
Two things: 

1) defenses everywhere average more points surrendered these days due to the evolution of the game

2) Richt has the luxury of being THE program in Georgia.  Would you really want to consistently under achieve while watching/listening to the crimson horde stack hardware?  We demand more and...we get it.  Sometimes.  Better than never.
This man understands. He's been in the trenches. He was there for the AUttitude!
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Gus is gone, hooray!
                       -Auburn Fans


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