Tony Dungy disagrees.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000399806/article/tony-dungy-says-he-wouldnt-draft-jameis-winston
He will drop at least as low as Manziel. I think lower.
All of your reasoning RE: the NFL not giving a flip about Rice and Peterson's behavior were true. But now, they're under so much scrutiny for it, they're going to have no choice but to crack down on this type of shit.
Jameis will be in the first draft class in which that will weigh heavily on coaches & owners' decision to draft a guy. I don't think most franchises want the sideshow.
You just said what I said, so having said that let me say this. My point exactly. Until the PC crowd started hollering and trying to make the NFL accountable for the actions of its players outside the field of play, they didn't care. The name of the game is winning and you do that by putting the best players on the field. Screw it if he gets a little drunk and slaps his wife around. Sally knows when I get on that tequila...HAAWWW...I'ma go upside that head.
Now, you can't take the chance. You can't draft the circus. I think Manziel went where he should have gone. Not because of his baggage but because he has incredible natural talent, but he's no shoe in to make a great NFL quarterback. He's definitely worth the risk for someone. Jameis, on the other hand, is a far better NFL prospect than JFF. Ultimately, if this hearing is held and they accuse him of sexual assault, it's likely he drops out of sight, if not off the board. If they find nothing, he's going early and often.