Does Auburn have a BCS title case?

[Saniflush]

Cliff notes version...yes we do and we should be ranked ahead of FSU as well if we win Saturday

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20131206/bcs-schedule-analysis/?eref=sihp

It's unfortunate for Auburn that its athletic director, Jay Jacobs, got caught up in the moment following last weekend's Iron Bowl. He called the prospect of a one-loss SEC champion being excluded from the BCS title game "un-American." In a climate where SEC fatigue already runs high in most parts of the country, such hyperbole and arrogance did not sit well.

The truth is, Jacobs does have a reasonable case, but not because of some perceived SEC birthright or because another team "struggled" last Saturday (as opposed to the Tigers' successive miracles to win their past two games). Actual data confirms that the two undefeated teams currently ranked ahead of Auburn in the standings -- No. 1 Florida State and No. 2 Ohio State -- have played historically soft schedules by BCS-era standards. Auburn's, even when docked for a loss, is pretty darn good.

 Jerry Palm, formerly the publisher of CollegeBCS.com and now a writer for CBSSports.com, has compiled strength-of-schedule rankings for 16 seasons using the same formula the BCS included as a component in its standings from 1998-2003 (two-third opponents' records; one-third opponents' opponents' records). According to Palm's projected rankings after this weekend, Ohio State -- even with a game against 11-1 Michigan State factored in -- will finish with the 55th strongest slate. Florida State, which faces 10-2 Duke on Saturday, is projected to finish 59th. The only team ever to play in the BCS championship game with a lower SOS rating than this year's Florida State team was Oregon in '10, which finished 72nd.

Of course, formulas are not the most common way most fans perceive a team's competition. Opponents' records are. The number of ranked foes a team has defeated is another often-cited figure, as are victories over bowl teams. So following up on a study I first put together during the Ducks' 2010 run, I've compiled a list of every BCS title game participant's SOS credentials, sorted by opponents' records, with '13 Florida State and Ohio State included for comparison's sake.

Note that Palm's data (based on the RPI formula in basketball) does not include wins over FCS foes. I used the final BCS standings for each season to qualify opponents as "ranked" (and the current BCS standings for this year's teams). Since some teams made it to the national championship with no losses, others with one loss, and 2007 LSU with two, I'm only counting ranked/bowl opponents that a team actually beat. I'm also counting all bowl-eligible teams as bowl teams to account for the fact that there used to be fewer bowls.

Most difficult path to title game during BCS era
Rank   Team   Opponents' record   Ranked opponents   Bowl opponents
1   1998 Florida State   74-44 (.627)   6    7
2   2000 Florida State    74-44 (.627)   4   7
3   2011 LSU   78-50 (.609)   5   9
4   2010 Auburn   76-50 (.603)   6    9
5   2006 Florida   81-54 (.600)   3   9
6   2012 Notre Dame   75-50 (.597)   3   10
7   1999 Florida State   65-44 (.596)   3   7
8   2008 Oklahoma   79-56 (.585)   5   7
9   2000 Oklahoma   70-50 (.583)   5   7
10   2009 Alabama    75-54 (.581)    3    9
11   2008 Florida   76-55 (.580)   2   9
12   2001 Nebraska   66-48 (.579)   1   7
13   2001 Miami   61-45 (.576)   4   7
14   2005 Texas   65-48 (.575)   3   8
15   2002 Miami   70-53 (.569)   5   8
16   2005 USC   66-50 (.569)   3   6
17   2004 Oklahoma   66-51 (.564)   3   6
18   2007 LSU   76-59 (.563)   4   8
19   2011 Alabama   63-50 (.558)   3   6
20   2003 Oklahoma   78-62 (.557)   2   7
21   2004 USC   65-53 (.551)   3   6
22   1998 Tennessee   63-52 (.548)   4   7
23   2009 Texas   74-61 (.548)   2   8
24   2002 Ohio State   77-64 (.546)   3   8
25   2006 Ohio State   66-59 (.528)   2   7
26   2012 Alabama   67-63 (.515)   3   6
27   2003 LSU   69-65 (.514)   3   5
28   2007 Ohio State   60-60 (.500)   1   5
29   1999 Virginia Tech   50-51 (.495)   1   5
30   2013 Florida State   61-64 (.488)   2   7
31   2013 Ohio State   64-68 (.485)   2   7
32   2010 Oregon    54-69 (.439)   1   5


 Should both teams win this weekend, the Seminoles and Buckeyes will join just two other BCS title game participants that played opponents with a combined sub.-500 record (excluding FCS wins). They'd also become two of 10 squads to beat fewer than three ranked foes.

The data could theoretically serve as fodder for SEC commissioner Mike Slive and others arguing that a one-loss champion from that league -- either Auburn or Missouri -- should be selected for the title game over an undefeated Ohio State team. But where do those teams stand historically? For a point of comparison, here is the equivalent data for Auburn and Mizzou (based on a projected victory over the other), as well as that of current BCS No. 6 Oklahoma State, which could theoretically have a case if it beats 9-2 Oklahoma to finish 11-1 as the Big 12 champion.


Team   Opponents' record   Ranked opponents   Bowl opponents
2013 Auburn   75-57 (.568)   4   9
2013 Missouri   69-58 (.543)   3   7
2013 Oklahoma State   60-59 (.504)   3   7

 Of the three, Auburn has the strongest case. While its 2013 road was not quite as taxing as its '10 championship path, it would still rank among the top half of all BCS title game participants. It would become just the 10th of 32 teams to beat at least four ranked squads, and it would tie for the second-most wins (9) over bowl opponents.

While I've been of the opinion the past few weeks that a one-loss team should NOT pass an undefeated Ohio State team, it's hard to deny that these numbers are eye-opening. The Buckeyes' schedule isn't just bad; it's historically bad. And Auburn's schedule -- even without credit in the last two columns for facing (and losing to) 9-3 LSU on Sept. 21 -- is tougher by a substantial margin.

There's just one problem: It would be hypocritical to suggest Auburn should leap Ohio State based on the Buckeyes' weak slate without also making the case the Tigers should bypass Florida State. After all, the Seminoles' strength of schedule is nearly identical to that of the Buckeyes. There's virtually no chance pollsters will consider moving Auburn to No. 1, even if it somehow beats Missouri 56-0, because the 'Noles have been so dominant all season.

Jacobs will have some nice data at his disposal if he'd like to make a more reasoned case come Saturday night. But those numbers would carry more weight next year, when a selection committee will replace the BCS standings. The pollsters, as they've done for more than 75 years, will rank teams based on which played the best on the field -- not which look best on a spreadsheet.

[dallaswareagle]

I want MSU to win so we get a shot, but I would laugh my ass off if they won and we still jumped them cause everybody saw finally saw that shitastic schedule and conference they play in.


Will be interesting to see how the SEC coaches vote.

[AUChizad]

I want MSU to win so we get a shot, but I would laugh my ass off if they won and we still jumped them cause everybody saw finally saw that shitastic schedule and conference they play in.


Will be interesting to see how the SEC coaches vote.

I seriously doubt we jump them, and if we do, we'll have to hear about how it was undeserved.

Like Brian said, the only way it happens is if we win by 4 TDs and they win by one score or less.

I think it is much more likely that OSU loses than we beat them by 28 points.

[bottomfeeder]

If we get there, can we fuck the pseudo-rapist?

[Ranger12]

If we beat Mizzou, I will be on my soapbox on how we deserve a title shot over OSU. I think Jacobs was premature to even start that discussion as we still have to play a very good Mizzou team. Too many seem to be overlooking them and it makes me nervous.

[Godfather]

If we beat Mizzou, I will be on my soapbox on how we deserve a title shot over OSU. I think Jacobs was premature to even start that discussion as we still have to play a very good Mizzou team. Too many seem to be overlooking them and it makes me nervous.

I don't care if Jacobs or we (fans) overlook them, as long as Gus and the team doesn't.

[Come Honor Face]

That kid better return that fucking visor.  Thats all I keep thinking about.

[WiregrassTiger]

If we beat Mizzou, I will be on my soapbox on how we deserve a title shot over OSU. I think Jacobs was premature to even start that discussion as we still have to play a very good Mizzou team. Too many seem to be overlooking them and it makes me nervous.

Jacobs did say a 1 loss SEC school so its not like he's jumping the gun. I just like that Gus doesn't worry about it. He just coaches the football.

[Lurking Tiger]

Jacobs did say a 1 loss SEC school so its not like he's jumping the gun. I just like that Gus doesn't worry about it. He just coaches the football.

Jacobs is still a douche bag.

[dallaswareagle]

Jacobs is still a douche bag.

But he's our douche bag.

[RWS]

In my opinion, Auburn holds a trump card.  They beat the #1 team in the country last week. 

I think that Auburn wins big today, and OSU will be exposed by Sparty.  So, no worries.

[Kaos]

In my opinion, Auburn holds a trump card.  They beat the #1 team in the country last week. 

I think that Auburn wins big today, and OSU will be exposed by Sparty.  So, no worries.

Your goat voo doo is noted.

[RWS]

Your goat voo doo is noted.

Not even trying to voodoo you guys.  They're not going to be able to handle AU's DL, or the offense's pace.  I predicted AU by 21 earlier in the week, and I'm sticking to that.  tOSU is a pretender, and I really fucking hate Meyer.  Even if AU and tOSU both win, I still think that AU should jump tOSU.  It's the same reasoning that a previously undefeated Northern Illinois is ranked behind 4 two loss teams.  It's the same reasoning that a 1 loss Fresno State is ranked behind two and three loss teams.  They just haven't really played anybody. 

If AU wins today, they will have beaten three top 10 teams, including the #1 team last week.  The only loss was to a #6 LSU.  Using the Sagarin ratings, tOSU has the 61st toughest schedule.  FSU has the 66th.  AU has the 26th toughest schedule.       

[jmar]

Not even trying to voodoo you guys.  They're not going to be able to handle AU's DL, or the offense's pace.  I predicted AU by 21 earlier in the week, and I'm sticking to that.  tOSU is a pretender, and I really fucking hate Meyer.  Even if AU and tOSU both win, I still think that AU should jump tOSU.  It's the same reasoning that a previously undefeated Northern Illinois is ranked behind 4 two loss teams.  It's the same reasoning that a 1 loss Fresno State is ranked behind two and three loss teams.  They just haven't really played anybody. 

If AU wins today, they will have beaten three top 10 teams, including the #1 team last week.  The only loss was to a #6 LSU.  Using the Sagarin ratings, tOSU has the 61st toughest schedule.  FSU has the 66th.  AU has the 26th toughest schedule.     

The opening line looked strange to begin with and now has swung three points in favor of Mizzou.
Smelly fish? Probably, but I can't see us coming out flat and I think you might be right.

I don't however think Mizzou or Auburn jumps Ohio State in any senario should they win.

[Heath_Evans44]

After watching this...Auburn has NO defense.   Florida State or Ohio State would win by 21pts vs. us.

[GH2001]

After watching this...Auburn has NO defense.   Florida State or Ohio State would win by 21pts vs. us.

go fist yourself asshole.

[AUTiger1]

After watching this...Auburn has NO defense.   Florida State or Ohio State would win by 21pts vs. us.

Get the fuck out of here troll!

[War Eagle!!!]

After watching this...Auburn has NO defense.   Florida State or Ohio State would win by 21pts vs. us.

Tread lightly

[oldautiger]

 

Tread lightly

Back to subject........... AU has done everything we can do, it's out of our hands now.  Just pray for a criminole or butthole meltdown.........Oh by the way, Fuck the troll, prolly just one of the butthurt 85%'ers

[GH2001]

No ohio state fan need to talk ill of someone's defense. Says the team that gave up 40 to Illinois and Michigan.