Is It Over for Obama?

[Townhallsavoy]

With less than two weeks to go until the election, Obama is regrouping his base with "rape" stories and advertisements linking girls losing his virginity to him. 

Polls are on the upswing for Romney.

Not one debate was a landslide victory for him.

The only hope for Obama - in my opinion - is for his voter turnout to exceed expectations in Ohio.  If the black vote doesn't show up like they did in 2008, he's done. 

[Saniflush]

You cannot count him out. 
There is no way to know for sure how many deceased people will show up at the polls.

[Townhallsavoy]

An interesting stat from Gallup:



http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

In 2008, Obama won with a D+10 turnout at the polls.  In 2004, Bush won with a R+2 at the polls. 

Gallop is predicting it to be R+1 at the polls.  Independents make up 29% of the total vote.  Are independents more or less swayed by Obama? 

I'm thinking less, but I don't have any stats to back that up.  Independents hate high deficits. 

[GH2001]

Agree THS but once one candidate goes above 50% and one goes below 50% this late in the election and the one going below is the incumbent, history says its very to hard to gain that back. Basically for Obama to win (the popular vote anyway) is to woo people back from Romney or in otherwords, flip them. Real hard to do.

If you go to Karl roves website, he has good electoral models posted. New ones every week using the rcp avgs. It looks very good for Romney. Problemany see with Obama is exactly what Romney said Monday in the debate - attacking mitts positions isn't an agenda. It's not a plan for the next 4 years. People are seeing that. Maybe America isn't lost after all.

[Townhallsavoy]

Agree THS but once one candidate goes above 50% and one goes below 50% this late in the election and the one going below is the incumbent, history says its very to hard to gain that back. Basically for Obama to win (the popular vote anyway) is to woo people back from Romney or in otherwords, flip them. Real hard to do.

If you go to Karl roves website, he has good electoral models posted. New ones every week using the rcp avgs. It looks very good for Romney. Problemany see with Obama is exactly what Romney said Monday in the debate - attacking mitts positions isn't an agenda. It's not a plan for the next 4 years. People are seeing that. Maybe America isn't lost after all.

What sucks is that we have to hope that Ohio especially isn't lost. 

[GH2001]

What sucks is that we have to hope that Ohio especially isn't lost.

True

Read Rove's latest article on his site. Love him or hate him he writes good stuff. Guy is a genius and is rarely wrong. I mean a guy that got George Bush elected twice has to be smart, right? He basically states Romney has 261 electorals that are almost certain (includes fla, virg, and Colorado). Leaving Iowa, Nevada, New hamp, minn, Wisc and penn left for them to fight over. 270 is needed to win. Iowa is only 7 so mitt really needs one of the others. NH is 4. I really think Ohio and Wisconsin will go red. Wisconsin has been swinging to Romney lately.


Good insight:
http://www.rove.com/articles/430

[Tarheel]

With less than two weeks to go until the election, Obama is regrouping his base with "rape" stories and advertisements linking girls losing his virginity to him. 

Polls are on the upswing for Romney.

Not one debate was a landslide victory for him.

The only hope for Obama - in my opinion - is for his voter turnout to exceed expectations in Ohio.  If the black vote doesn't show up like they did in 2008, he's done.

I am moving between very cautiously optimistic and experiencing a high-degree of anxiety about the election cycle.  The metrics are looking good for Team Romney; much better than they were for Team McCain around this time four years ago but there's still some part of me worried about the emotional vote and the youth vote turning out in favor of The ONE again.  Contrary to that though is the Republican/ Leaning Republican/ Tea Party turn-out from 2010 which is a metric that no one is looking at for this cycle.  If that very animated political fervor is still around (and part of me thinks that it is based strictly on anecdotal evidence) then The ONE has reason to be worried (take a look at how many times Gov. Walker won in Wisconsin for example even after all the money and resources poured into that state by the leftists!).  At the end of the day I'm seeing the political battle being carried to "blue" states and out of "red" states on the aggregate electoral maps and that is also a good sign for Team Romney.  Yet, some days I still feel sick to my stomach.

[Townhallsavoy]

From Obama's Tumblr account:



I mean, why is he not shouting from the rooftops his plan in order to inspire voters?  Why not release more pamphlets?

It's obvious all the Obama campaign has left is to spend money on disparaging Romney.  Demotivate potential Romney voters.  Keep them home on Tuesday. 

[Tarheel]

...
It's obvious all the Obama campaign has left is to spend money on disparaging Romney.  Demotivate potential Romney voters.  Keep them home on Tuesday.

There's definitely an odor of desperation emanating from The ONE's campaign.

[AUTailgatingRules]

As I've heard many times over the past couple weeks, look for this to be the Chic-Fil-A Election.  Voters will be coming out of the wood works to vote against Obama

[Tarheel]

As I've heard many times over the past couple weeks, look for this to be the Chic-Fil-A Election.  Voters will be coming out of the wood works to vote against Obama

Unless the 100 Year Superstorm causes The ONE to suspend the election and declare martial law due to a "National Emergency"...I'm channeling Alex Jones this afternoon...