Just trying to make a little sense of the rest of the season based on what I've seen.
Auburn's strengths from Saturday:
- Strong running game (Mason over 100, McCallebb over 80) without our starting center
- Consistent threats from Emory Blake and Lutz
- Defensive penetration on pass plays
- Limiting points scored against us
- Kicking game
Auburn's weaknesses:
- Pass protection
- Quarterback accuracy
- QB buying time in the pocket to deliver throw
- Defensive running game especially up the middle
- Consistent tackling
- Diverse receivers
- 3rd down conversions both offensively and defensively
- Punt return
Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think we can claim the following as wins:
LA Monroe
Ole Miss
New Mexico State
Alabama A&M
Games we should win:
Miss State - It's in Starkville, but that's not too much of a factor since their crowd sucks. I don't think they will pressure our quarterback like Clemson did, so we should have a bit more time to find Blake or Lutz down field. Their rush defense should be stout, but I have faith that our change of pace in Mason and OMac will open up lanes for us to get yards. Offensively, I'd be surprised to see us not score at least 21 points. Our kicking game is solid and we can rely on field goals even from a far distance. That gets us at least 3 more points. The magic number is 24 for our defense. Miss State has very little reliability when it comes to turnovers and consistent offensive play. This is mainly based on their history under Mullen. I fully expect our defense to force one or two key turnovers that swing the game our way. They have a few dangerous receivers, but none that are more dangerous than Clemson's. Their running back is no where near as elusive, fast, and strong as Ellington. If I had to make a prediction, I'd say 24-21, Auburn wins.
Vanderbilt - It's in Nashville, but again, their crowd is small and while they may be rowdy, I don't think Vanderbilt comes into the game like they did in 2008. They play @Georgia (loss), open week to recover, @Missouri (likely loss), Florida (possible loss), and then host Auburn. Vanderbilt is very precise on offense. This will be killer to our defensive ability, and I'd put money on Zac Stacy puttng up big numbers on us. Also, their quarterback will shred us down field quite often. However, I think our athletic superiority will help us in the red zone and limit them to more field goals than touchdowns. On the flip side, our offense should be clicking better by this game. Our running game should move well against a smaller Vandy line. We can then hit play action pass and get into the endzone. This won't be an easy win, but it'll be easier than Miss State.
Texas A&M - This one's at home. They have a nasty running back, but that's it. With a new coach that's trying to implement a new offensive system, I expect them to struggle this season. They'll look like rock stars against our defense. But that's okay. The home crowd will help rattle the Aggies enough that we can squeeze out the late win.
Games We Could Win:
Arkansas - It's at home. We'll be hungry to beat this team especially after LSU week. Win or lose against LSU, we'll want to rebound against Arkansas with a solid home performance. The open date only helps our young guys get their heads back right. However, Arkansas has a dangerous quarterback that doesn't quit and doesn't get rattled. Knile Davis will run well, but they don't have the receivers to scare me like other teams do. I don't see them shredding us like they did last year. Defensively, Arkansas is a bit light in the ass. We can run on them, and we can use the home field advantage to get ahead. Whether or not we can actually pull out the win? No clue.
Georgia - Buffalo had success running the ball up the middle especially when their backs tried to be shifty. Georgia's defense is aggressive. Play action, draws, counters, perhaps the option - we could catch them off guard. Of course, that was without numerous defensive starters. What we can't do is win on defense. Georgia has talented running backs despite losing Crowell. Murray is a third year starter who has plenty of reliable options at receiver. Georgia will score at least 28 points against our defense, and that's limiting them due to the home crowd screaming their asses off. We have to keep up with them and hope for a turnover or two to bounce our way.
Games We Cannot Win:
LSU - They pound the ball up the middle, and that's our biggest weakness. They have talented receivers that can make people miss. Their defense is suffocating, and their pass rush is the most dangerous in the country. We do not match up against them at all.
Alabama - Similar to LSU, Alabama pounds it up the middle, utilizes play action pass, and has a suffocating defense. It's also at Alabama. We may be able to keep this one respectable.
I'm ready for more football.
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