Golden Nugget Giving Out Free Money

[JR4AU]

What's the spread sitting at for that game?

Judging by the variance in our respective rankings and every "expert's" opinion on this game, I'm gonna guess we're probably like a 14+ point dog.

That ain't happening.

Polls and spreads have nothing to do with one another, at least when in the football context.

[AUChizad]

Polls and spreads have nothing to do with one another, at least when in the football context.

Not directly, but they certainly guide the uninformed casual sports better.

The fact that the spread is still that close is somewhat comforting.

[Godfather]

Not directly, but they certainly guide the uninformed casual sports better.

The fact that the spread is still that close is somewhat comforting.

Gots to go with the counselor here.  Spread is set by big Tony, and driven based on money.  If you believe what you wrote then they have achieved what they want to.

[GH2001]

Gots to go with the counselor here.  Spread is set by big Tony, and driven based on money.  If you believe what you wrote then they have achieved what they want to.

GF knows betting. 100% correct.

[AUChizad]

Gots to go with the counselor here.  Spread is set by big Tony, and driven based on money.  If you believe what you wrote then they have achieved what they want to.

And Big Tony's decision isn't influenced by what the general betting public thinks the outcome will be? Does he not calculate a sweet spot in which more betters will bet for the outcome that he thinks is least likely?

[Godfather]

And Big Tony's decision isn't influenced by what the general betting public thinks the outcome will be? Does he not calculate a sweet spot in which more betters will bet for the outcome that he thinks is least likely?

To a degree yes, however not based on polls (although I am sure it is a small factor) as they have to look at everything, venue always a big factor.  Also he is is not looking for the outcome he thinks is least likely but strong enough to get both sides of the line to bet,creating a profit for said sportsbook.

Don't forget there are 2 sides to every line sometimes you have to spend 110 to win 100.

[JR4AU]

And Big Tony's decision isn't influenced by what the general betting public thinks the outcome will be? Does he not calculate a sweet spot in which more betters will bet for the outcome that he thinks is least likely?

To answer the last question...NO.  The setting of lines is 100% driven by trying to get equal amounts of action on both sides of the line.  Is it driven by public perception?  To a degree, but the "betting public" isn't necessarily thinking the same way as the casual fan. 

[JR4AU]

To a degree yes, however not based on polls (although I am sure it is a small factor) as they have to look at everything, venue always a big factor.  Also he is is not looking for the outcome he thinks is least likely but strong enough to get both sides of the line to bet,creating a profit for said sportsbook.

Don't forget there are 2 sides to every line sometimes you have to spend 110 to win 100.

Many don't realize that if you, as the bettor, go 50% on your pics, you lose, and the bookie wins due to the Vig.  A bettor has to hit about 60% right to just break even, making winning very difficult, and why Vegas is always the winner. 

[Godfather]

Many don't realize that if you, as the bettor, go 50% on your pics, you lose, and the bookie wins due to the Vig.  A bettor has to hit about 60% right to just break even, making winning very difficult, and why Vegas is always the winner.

Unless your name is Lurking Tiger

[AUChizad]

To answer the last question...NO.  The setting of lines is 100% driven by trying to get equal amounts of action on both sides of the line.  Is it driven by public perception?  To a degree, but the "betting public" isn't necessarily thinking the same way as the casual fan.

Ok.

My original point is that the polls and other factors, such as the opinion of every talking head on National TV have influence on where the line sets.

When people are spoonfed that Clemson is the #14 Team in the nation, and a legitimate National Championship Contender, while Auburn is unranked entirely and is expected to go 6-6, and also Kirk Herbstreit, and Mark May and Craig James and Jesse Palmer and Todd McShay and Paul Finebaum and Tom Luginbill and Robert Smith and everyone who is asked on ESPN thinks that Clemson wins this game, and there the bet sits at three and a half points, it is an enticing bet.

All I'm sayin.

[JR4AU]

Ok.

My original point is that the polls and other factors, such as the opinion of every talking head on National TV have influence on where the line sets.

When people are spoonfed that Clemson is the #14 Team in the nation, and a legitimate National Championship Contender, while Auburn is unranked entirely and is expected to go 6-6, and also Kirk Herbstreit, and Mark May and Craig James and Jesse Palmer and Todd McShay and Paul Finebaum and Tom Luginbill and Robert Smith and everyone who is asked on ESPN thinks that Clemson wins this game, and there the bet sits at three and a half points, it is an enticing bet.

All I'm sayin.

An enticing bet on which team?  Why?   

[AUChizad]

An enticing bet on which team?  Why?

It seems the bookies think the game is going to be closer than most of the general public seem to.

I see "the general population" piling on Clemson with that spread, thinking that they will win by at least a couple of touchdowns, based on those factors I mentioned. Perhaps, more nuanced betters see that Auburn has a chance in this thing, or if they do lose, they think it will be within a field goal.

[AU_Tiger_2000]

It seems the bookies think the game is going to be closer than most of the general public seem to.

I see "the general population" piling on Clemson with that spread, thinking that they will win by at least a couple of touchdowns, based on those factors I mentioned. Perhaps, more nuanced betters see that Auburn has a chance in this thing, or if they do lose, they think it will be within a field goal.

What I think JR was trying to say is that if the bookies are giving a 3 point spread, that is a more accurate reflection of the public opinion than the polls.  If you see the spread move to 3.5 or 4 points then you will know a lot of people are betting on Clemson, if it goes to 2.5 or 2 people are betting more on Auburn.

[JR4AU]

It seems the bookies think the game is going to be closer than most of the general public seem to.

I see "the general population" piling on Clemson with that spread, thinking that they will win by at least a couple of touchdowns, based on those factors I mentioned. Perhaps, more nuanced betters see that Auburn has a chance in this thing, or if they do lose, they think it will be within a field goal.

If the line moves up, then you'll be proven right about the general population, although, as I said, they're not the "betting public". 

[JR4AU]

What I think JR was trying to say is that if the bookies are giving a 3 point spread, that is a more accurate reflection of the public opinion than the polls.  If you see the spread move to 3.5 or 4 points then you will know a lot of people are betting on Clemson, if it goes to 2.5 or 2 people are betting more on Auburn.

I've never been a big gambler.  I've heard nobody really knows how the lines are set, as they are truly set by Guido and the boys in a locked, smoke filled room in Vegas.  True or not?  Can't say.  But having lower ranked teams favored by the spread, or the spread not reflecting what the polls say regarding how big the spread should be, tells me they don't use any of that garbage to set it. 

[DnATL]

It seems the bookies think the game is going to be closer than most of the general public seem to.

No, they aren't trying to guess the actual outcome.  They want to middle the action and collect juice off the losers, not middle the actual spread and have everyone push.  If they made Clemson a bigger favorite, they would attract more action on the Auburn side - if they made it a pick 'em then they may get loaded on Clemson.

I see a more highly-ranked Clemson at a "bargain" -3 as a possible trap.  A trap is a different deal.  Have a good feeling that Auburn wins straight-up, but the expectation is they should be the underdog?  Then make the expected favorite look like a bargain too good to pass up, and set the trap.
 

[Vandy Vol]

No, they aren't trying to guess the actual outcome.  They want to middle the action and collect juice off the losers, not middle the actual spread and have everyone push.  If they made Clemson a bigger favorite, they would attract more action on the Auburn side - if they made it a pick 'em then they may get loaded on Clemson.

I see a more highly-ranked Clemson at a "bargain" -3 as a possible trap.  A trap is a different deal.  Have a good feeling that Auburn wins straight-up, but the expectation is they should be the underdog?  Then make the expected favorite look like a bargain too good to pass up, and set the trap.

Once upon a time, not long ago,
Where people wore pajamas and lived life slow,
Where laws were stern and justice stood,
And people were behavin' like they ought to good.

There lived a little boy who was misled,
By another little boy and this is what he said,
"Me and you Tike, we're gonna make some cash,
Robbin' old folks and makin' the dash."

[wesfau2]

Once upon a time, not long ago,
Where people wore pajamas and lived life slow,
Where laws were stern and justice stood,
And people were behavin' like they ought to good.

There lived a little boy who was misled,
By another little boy and this is what he said,
"Me and you Tike, we're gonna make some cash,
Robbin' old folks and makin' the dash."

Slick Rick the Ruler.  Nice.

[AUChizad]

No, they aren't trying to guess the actual outcome.  They want to middle the action and collect juice off the losers, not middle the actual spread and have everyone push.  If they made Clemson a bigger favorite, they would attract more action on the Auburn side - if they made it a pick 'em then they may get loaded on Clemson.

I see a more highly-ranked Clemson at a "bargain" -3 as a possible trap.  A trap is a different deal.  Have a good feeling that Auburn wins straight-up, but the expectation is they should be the underdog?  Then make the expected favorite look like a bargain too good to pass up, and set the trap.

You are saying exactly what I was (trying to) say.

[Saniflush]

Over/Under is dropping. 

Down to 56.5