Evan Woodbery Analyzes and Critiques Chizik's Youth Claims

[Townhallsavoy]

AUBURN, Alabama -- Gene Chizik raised a few eyebrows this week when he talked about the composition of Auburn's roster. Seventy percent of the team, Chizik said, would be made up of freshmen and sophomores.

But it's not the first time he's described his team in those terms.

Google "Chizik" and "70 percent" and you'll see that Chizik has used a similar line on just about every stop of the spring booster circuit.

Eufaula: "They're young, they're passionate and they have a lot of energy."

Destin: "The roster management that we've had to look after and tweak, it's been big."

Orange Beach: "You've got to go through those growing pains. We're going through them. But those guys are going to be one year older."

The SEC teleconference: "We've still got a lot of developmental guys."

It's fair to say that "70 percent" has reached the level of Talking Point.

There's no shame in that. We'd probably repeat the same stuff, too, if we were asked the same questions every few days.

But is Auburn really that young compared to the rest of the league? Let's take a look.

Auburn's roster will have 81 scholarship players if all signees qualify academically and report as scheduled by August. You can look at the full list here. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anybody).

Those 81 players include walk-ons who were granted scholarships last year -- Blake Burgess and Ikeem Means -- and are likely to have them renewed in 2012. It DOES NOT include current walk-ons -- like Corey Grant -- who might be given scholarships later this summer. Auburn is four short of the NCAA maximum of 85.

Here's the breakdown:

By Classification

Seniors: 12 (14.8 percent)

Juniors: 16 (19.8 percent)

Sophomore: 22 (27.2 percent)

Freshmen: 31 (38.3 percent)

====

Upperclassmen 28 (34.6 percent)

Underclassmen 53 (65.4 percent)



Here's another way of looking at it that might give a more accurate picture of Auburn's experience level:

By year in school

Fifth: 1 (1.2 percent)

Fourth: 14 (17.3 percent)

Third: 21 (25.9 percent)

Second: 23 (28.4 percent)

First: 22 (27.2 percent)

==============

Players in third year in school or greater 36 (44.4 percent)




By the dictionary definition of the term, Auburn has about 65 percent underclassmen, so Chizik was essentially on target. By actual collegiate experience, however, only about 56 percent of the players are truly green.

How does that compare to the rest of the SEC? Most schools will sign, or prefer to sign, 25 players. If all qualify, that's at least 30 percent of the roster devoted to true freshmen. If a team has only modest attrition -- say, losing five players after Year 1 -- that's 45 players (20 sophomore and 25 freshmen) or about 53 percent of the roster in the bottom two classes. That doesn't count players who redshirted. So it's not a stretch to say that teams signing healthy classes could routinely have about 60 percent of the roster filled by players classified as freshmen and sophomores.

In that context, Auburn isn't that young. But it's hard to say for sure because getting a full list of 85-man scholarship rosters is difficult at some schools -- and, laughably, illegal at others.

What about players who are potential starters or contributors? That's even more difficult to say, because with three months until the season starts, we're still guessing.

By my unofficial projection, Auburn will start seven or eight seniors, nine juniors, six sophomores and one or two freshmen on offense, defense, kicker and punter. That makes Auburn slightly younger than the rest of the league, but not dramatically so. That ratio is comparable to Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi State. Arkansas will likely start more seniors. LSU has a bigger junior class and a smaller group of seniors and sophomores. As a whole, however, Auburn is not markedly younger.

That doesn't mean Chizik is being disingenuous when he cites Auburn's youth. Another full recruiting class will likely put the roster in perfect balance in 2013. But roster harmony is a luxury, not a requirement. And youth isn't an issue for Auburn alone.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/05/how_big_an_issue_will_youth_be.html

[GH2001]

Seriously though....

WHAT IS HIS FUCKING POINT???????

[noxin]

Seriously though....

WHAT IS HIS fudgeING POINT???????

Chizik is a whiny ass bitch and a fucking liar.  Only a true Auburn man like Woodbery has the balls to point it out.

[Snaggletiger]

Seriously though....

WHAT IS HIS FUCKING POINT???????

You beat me to it. 

[AUChizad]

Chizik is a whiny ass bitch and a fucking liar.

"...although technically completely correct."

So, basically, he said they're 70% lower classmen. But actually 65.4%!!! Why is he rounding?!? Why didn't he say 65.4%? What is he hiding? Why didn't he just say 65.4320987654320987654321% repeating when people ask him that question!?!?

Well, yeah, that's kinda close, if you are counting them in Juniors and Seniors, vs. Freshmen & Sophomores, which everyone fucking does and is the very definition of the words "upperclassmen" and "lowerclassmen". But look! If I spin it a different way, I can count Sophomores as upper classmen! A-ha! What a fucking liar this guy is. Other teams are probably just as young, although I can't be sure because I haven't seen the rosters. But probably!

[Snaggletiger]

Thank gawd we have someone like Woodbammer who will champion the cause of keeping Chizik in check. 

[AUChizad]

Thank gawd we have someone like Woodbammer who will champion the cause of keeping Chizik in check.

Right, if it weren't for our beatwriter, no one else would.

Finebaum certainly isn't going to call him out on anything. Can't imagine anyone in the Birmingham media having the cahones to challenge him on anything.

[Buzz Killington]

I guess Charles Goldberg stole all the good stories again?  That bastard.

[Tiger Wench]

We are the 70%.

Unless we aren't.

Fuckstick.

[AUChizad]

By my unofficial projection, Auburn will start seven or eight seniors, nine juniors

Name them, Woodbery. He's just making shit up.

[Snaggletiger]

Just for kicks and giggles, here's my projected starters.  And this carries about as much weight as my 11 year old naming them.

Offense:

Reese Dismukes (So.) C
Chad Slade (So.) or Greg Robinson (RFr.) G
Chad Slade (So.) or Christian Westerman (RFr.) G
John Sullen (Sr. ) T
Patrick Miller (Fr.) T
Emory Blake (Sr. ) WR
Trovon Reed (So.) WR
Philip Frutzenschteiner - inator (Sr.) TE
Jay Prosch (Jr.) FB
Tre Mason (So.) TB
Kiehl Frazier (So.) QB

Defense:

Jeffrey Whitaker (Jr.) DT
Gabe Wright (So.) or Angelo Blackson (So.) DT
Corey Lemonier (Jr.) DE
Dee Ford (Jr.) DE
Jake Holland (Jr.) LB
Kris Frost (RFr.) LB
Darren Bates (Sr.) LB
Chris Davis (Jr.) DB
T'Sharvin Bell (Sr.) DB
Robenson Therezie (So.) DB
Erique Florence (So.) DB

Again, just guesses but all these guys will play major roles whether they start or not.

[Godfather]

Name them, Woodbery. He's just making shit up.

Actually that was about the only thing his dumbass was close on, but still not the point. 

McCalebb
Blake
Stallworth
Lutz
Sullen
Evans
Bates
Bell

[Snaggletiger]

We've got either 10 or 11 seniors on the roster. (I'm looking at the spring game roster)  That includes Deangelo Benton, Jamar Travis, Ashton Richardson and Nathan Taylor.  Travante Stallworth is in that group but as you can see, half of the senior class gets very minimal playing time.  Guys like Blake, Lutz and McProne should be able to give the leadership on offense that I think was sorely missed last season, while Little Bighead Bell, Darren Bates and Evans have been through the wars on D.     

[Godfather]

We've got either 10 or 11 seniors on the roster. (I'm looking at the spring game roster)  That includes Deangelo Benton, Jamar Travis, Ashton Richardson and Nathan Taylor.  Travante Stallworth is in that group but as you can see, half of the senior class gets very minimal playing time.  Guys like Blake, Lutz and McProne should be able to give the leadership on offense that I think was sorely missed last season, while Little Bighead Bell, Darren Bates and Evans have been through the wars on D.   

Add Sullen and there are your 6 SRs the rest I would consider situational and even MCalebb is more situational

[Snaggletiger]

Add Sullen and there are your 6 SRs the rest I would consider situational and even MCalebb is more situational

Agreed.  And apologies to Onterrio for having that beefy bean burrito from Taco Smell.  Hope he didn't get hurt too bad.

[JR4AU]

Woodbammer wrote all that shit, attempted to spin it as Chiz making excuses (for what, we haven't played a game), and of course carefully pointed out that he wasn't being disingenuous, BUT...

And in the middle slipped this one very relevant nugget in:

That makes Auburn slightly younger than the rest of the league, but not dramatically so.

Call it making excuses, attempting to set every one up to not be as disappointed, whatever side you want to come down on...it's a fact.  Is it an excuse?  If you don't believe experience and physical maturity matter in football, then no, it's not. 

In reality, it's a fact.  It also follows that if we're young in 2012, we were younger in 2011 with even fewer upperclassmen, and far more true Fr starting or playing significant roles.  Dye used to say you could factor in 1 loss for every True Fr. you have to start.  I'm sure that's not a hard and fast rule, and not true if you're starting a guy like Bo as a Fr.  But, Chiz overachieved last season (I know that's not the point here), and he did it very young.  Those young guys got experience.  So, is it an excuse?  IMHO, yeah it's an excuse to not be on the BCS Title contender radar screen, but lets face it...Chiz went 8-5 with a younger team and a shitty QB situation.  So, I'm looking for improvement.  More than 8 wins?  I think so, but if we got just 8, only losing to teams we were dogs to, and all were close games where we were competitive...I think I could handle it.  I don't think it's going to go that way, I think we win 9 maybe even 10, and don't get blown out.  I think we pull one or two upsets.  I'm betting we're dogs vs Clemson, and I think we win that one.   If 2012 goes like 2011, (8 wins, with 3 or 4 games we were never in) then IMHO, Chiz has taken a step backwards and youth would be no excuse for that. 


2013 and 2014?  We should be contending.   

[JR4AU]

I almost forgot....fuck woodbammer

[Saniflush]

We will contend this year.

Unless we don't.

Bank it.

[Snaggletiger]

If I'm 17 or 18 years old and starting on the defensive line ie, Gabe Wright or Angelo Blackson, invariably, I'm going to be facing guys with 2-3 years more experience that have been in a D1 strength program for that time period as well.

Dee Ford was 205 pounds when he came to Auburn.  Think he's a little more effective at 240 and muscled up?  Same with Lemonier.  He's 15-20 pounds heavier now and I would assume that much stronger.  Strength and experience matter...period.   

[AWK]

I'm going to quit my current job and apply as the bama beat writer for some paper. 

First headline:  Saban says Depth chart is 95% complete, he rounded up.  Too bad God didn't round up with his height.

Just wait, I'll be dead in 2 months tops.