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The sky is falling...

JR4AU

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The sky is falling...
« on: January 06, 2012, 01:17:56 PM »
So say a couple in a thread on the football board. 

List of uncommitted croots listed on Rivals with "high interest" in Auburrn.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results

List of uncommitted who list Auburn with "medium interest".

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results

We have 9 slots left to fill, or so I thought.  Bammer, currently shows 26 commits.  I thought we now had a hard 25 limit, no? 

At any rate, there's a significant number of players, and I mean real players, that have been being recruited by a staff that has shown it can land big name croots.  I'm not fucking worried until we only sign 16 on signing day, or if we suddenly fill the class out with 2* players despite the fact that the current 16 has 10 4 * players among them.

Discuss...
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djsimp

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2012, 01:22:13 PM »
Our needs for the most part are DL and OL. When these guys sign the dotted line, we will be very pleased. I would like to see a few more LB's in this class.
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AWK

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2012, 01:51:16 PM »
So say a couple in a thread on the football board. 

List of uncommitted croots listed on Rivals with "high interest" in Auburrn.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results

List of uncommitted who list Auburn with "medium interest".

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search-results

We have 9 slots left to fill, or so I thought.  Bammer, currently shows 26 commits.  I thought we now had a hard 25 limit, no? 

At any rate, there's a significant number of players, and I mean real players, that have been being recruited by a staff that has shown it can land big name croots.  I'm not fucking worried until we only sign 16 on signing day, or if we suddenly fill the class out with 2* players despite the fact that the current 16 has 10 4 * players among them.

Discuss...
Both links just take you to the general database.
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JR4AU

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2012, 02:00:24 PM »
Both links just take you to the general database.

Just saw that, don't know how to fix it.

Go here and search Uncommitted/Auburn/Interest level.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/footballrecruiting/football/recruiting/recruit-search;_ylt=AkBHO2VZIJZRQQf0XEpg7WVGPZB4
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AUTiger1

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #4 on: January 06, 2012, 02:36:28 PM »
Yes, you can olny sign 25.  If someone like the Collins kid commits to you, you find him a spot.  Someone loses their offer.  You drop that "project" kid for the sure thing.
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Courage is only fear holding on a minute longer.--George S. Patton

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It isn't that liberals are ignorant. It's just they know so much that isn't so. --Ronald Reagan

Snaggletiger

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #5 on: January 06, 2012, 02:50:02 PM »
Yes, you can olny sign 25.  If someone like the Collins kid commits to you, you find him a spot.  Someone loses their offer.  You drop that "project" kid for the sure thing.

The word for today, boys and girls is PROCESS.  Aiight?  It's pronounced (PRAH' - SESS)

In every day language, it's a Lord Saybinism meaning the act of kicking a mofo to the curb when said mofo does not appear to fit in with the Master Race.

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JR4AU

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2012, 02:56:17 PM »
Yes, you can olny sign 25.  If someone like the Collins kid commits to you, you find him a spot.  Someone loses their offer.  You drop that "project" kid for the sure thing.

But if Nick is such a great coach, he can just coach 'em up can't he?  But what you're saying is, some poor kid is going to get prawsessed before he ever sets foot on campus?
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AUTiger1

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2012, 03:20:36 PM »
But if Nick is such a great coach, he can just coach 'em up can't he?  But what you're saying is, some poor kid is going to get prawsessed before he ever sets foot on campus?

I imagine that someone will "decommit" before signing day.
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Courage is only fear holding on a minute longer.--George S. Patton

There are gonna be days when you lay your guts on the line and you come away empty handed, there ain't a damn thing you can do about it but go back out there and lay em on the line again...and again, and again! -- Coach Pat Dye

It isn't that liberals are ignorant. It's just they know so much that isn't so. --Ronald Reagan

Snaggletiger

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2012, 03:24:53 PM »
I imagine that someone will "decommit" before signing day.

This just in.  Water is wet.
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My doctor told me I needed to stop masturbating.  I asked him why, and he said, "because I'm trying to examine you."

AUTiger1

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #9 on: January 06, 2012, 03:40:51 PM »
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Courage is only fear holding on a minute longer.--George S. Patton

There are gonna be days when you lay your guts on the line and you come away empty handed, there ain't a damn thing you can do about it but go back out there and lay em on the line again...and again, and again! -- Coach Pat Dye

It isn't that liberals are ignorant. It's just they know so much that isn't so. --Ronald Reagan

Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2012, 03:43:43 PM »
Well 2 probably won't make it due to grades, and you can still back count kids assuming you have the numbers. I believe Alabama has 3 spots open to back count.
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AWK

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2012, 04:36:05 PM »
Well 2 probably won't make it due to grades, and you can still back count kids assuming you have the numbers. I believe Alabama has 3 spots open to back count.
Leave it to a bammer to "back count."  That's how you got your 43,298 National Championships. 
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RWS

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2012, 09:35:34 PM »
But if Nick is such a great coach, he can just coach 'em up can't he? 
Well, he took a few 3* guys and got them drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft not too long ago. That doesn't happen very often though. It's usually your 4 and 5* guys that are going to get drafted. You guys have alot of 4* kids and have recruited well the past few years, so I'm sure you guys will have plenty going highly in the draft in a year or so. Right?
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Vandy Vol

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #13 on: January 06, 2012, 10:22:32 PM »
Well, he took a few 3* guys and got them drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft not too long ago. That doesn't happen very often though. It's usually your 4 and 5* guys that are going to get drafted. You guys have alot of 4* kids and have recruited well the past few years, so I'm sure you guys will have plenty going highly in the draft in a year or so. Right?

There was a guy who looked at the ratings for players drafted to the NFL in 2008.  In the first round, five 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, seven 3 stars, and seven 2 stars were drafted (one guy was drafted from the FCS).

In the second round, four 5 stars, ten 4 stars, nine 3 stars, and five 2 stars were drafted (four guys were drafted from the FCS).

So, it's not really that rare to have a 3 star get drafted in the first and second rounds.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2012, 10:23:21 PM by Vandy Vol »
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JR4AU

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2012, 10:31:21 PM »
There was a guy who looked at the ratings for players drafted to the NFL in 2008.  In the first round, five 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, seven 3 stars, and seven 2 stars were drafted (one guy was drafted from the FCS).

In the second round, four 5 stars, ten 4 stars, nine 3 stars, and five 2 stars were drafted (four guys were drafted from the FCS).

So, it's not really that rare to have a 3 star get drafted in the first and second rounds.

Break that down in  to percentages of each "star level" and you'll see an undeniable "trend".
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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #15 on: January 10, 2012, 11:19:12 AM »
There was a guy who looked at the ratings for players drafted to the NFL in 2008.  In the first round, five 5 stars, eleven 4 stars, seven 3 stars, and seven 2 stars were drafted (one guy was drafted from the FCS).

In the second round, four 5 stars, ten 4 stars, nine 3 stars, and five 2 stars were drafted (four guys were drafted from the FCS).

So, it's not really that rare to have a 3 star get drafted in the first and second rounds.

Makes sense.  After all, according to rivals there are 27 5 star rrecruits nationwide.  There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, you're gonna have a lot of lower ranked guys in there.
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GH2001

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #16 on: January 10, 2012, 11:47:14 AM »
Makes sense.  After all, according to rivals there are 27 5 star rrecruits nationwide.  There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, you're gonna have a lot of lower ranked guys in there.

Thanks for posting that to save me the typing. There are very few 5 stars on Rivals. A lot more 4 stars and even more 3 stars.
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WDE

Vandy Vol

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #17 on: January 10, 2012, 02:06:56 PM »
Makes sense.  After all, according to rivals there are 27 5 star rrecruits nationwide.  There are 64 picks in the first two rounds, you're gonna have a lot of lower ranked guys in there.

Thanks for posting that to save me the typing. There are very few 5 stars on Rivals. A lot more 4 stars and even more 3 stars.

The same guy said that only 1% of Division I-A college players receive 5 stars.  It just makes sense that there will be tons more 2 and 3 stars than there are 4 and 5 stars, so they (2 and 3 stars) are bound to get into the first and second rounds of the draft pretty often.
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DnATL

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #18 on: January 10, 2012, 02:25:20 PM »
The same guy said that only 1% of Division I-A college players receive 5 stars.  It just makes sense that there will be tons more 2 and 3 stars than there are 4 and 5 stars, so they (2 and 3 stars) are bound to get into the first and second rounds of the draft pretty often.
Damn one-percenters
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JR4AU

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Re: The sky is falling...
« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2012, 04:18:40 PM »
The same guy said that only 1% of Division I-A college players receive 5 stars.  It just makes sense that there will be tons more 2 and 3 stars than there are 4 and 5 stars, so they (2 and 3 stars) are bound to get into the first and second rounds of the draft pretty often.

5* players are the top 1% relative to their cohorts.  So, they're a small percentage.  In the 2011 NFL draft, however, their were seven 5* players in the first 10 picks, while only 2 were 3*. 

If you look at the NFL draft in that sense, the "star rankings" get it right most of the time. 

On average, in the first 3 rounds of the draft, of the roughly 30 5 Star players coming out of HS, close to half get drafted, of the roughly 300 4* players rougly 10% get drafted, of the 750 3* players only about 4% get drafted, and of the 1700 2* players only about 1% get drafted. 

http://www.athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-stars
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