And Kaos disagrees........
Through 5 games into the 2011 season, the Auburn offense is currently No. 80 in total offense and No. 52 in scoring offense. This includes a No. 37 ranking in run-offense and No. 60 ranking in pass-efficiency offense. Despite Auburn’s average output on offense, the Tigers are 4-1 but obviously won’t win many additional games if the offense doesn’t improve. As of late, Barrett Trotter has become under more scrutiny, which is the normal reaction of fans to point the finger at the quarterback when all is not well with the offense. Along with this fine tradition of blaming the starting quarterback is the common theme that the backup quarterback would play much better if just given the chance. In some cases, its probably the truth but in most cases, its not.
Of the 100 quarterbacks ranked by the NCAA at the FBS level, Barrett Trotter is currently the No. 56 quarterback with a rating of 137.6. He has completed 59.8 percent of his passes for 7.34 yards per attempt. He has 9 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions on the season. Now some would look at these numbers and state Auburn could do better and he is the primary reason why Auburn is struggling on offense but that would be the easy way out. If this were true, how do you explain A.J. McCarron being the starting quarterback of the No. 2 team in the country with a quarterback rating of 134.5, ranked No. 62 nationally? Despite having a lower pass rating than Barrett Trotter, McCarron is part of an Alabama offense that is averaging 438-yards and 38 points per game.
Perhaps McCarron has a better supporting cast and Alabama is not asking McCarron to carry the offense but just to be a working portion of it. Speaking of supporting cast, having a solid offensive line is the driving force of any successful offense.
Pfffftttt. Pffffffftttfffffttt. Pffftttfftttfftttt. Dyer > Richardson. Blake/Stallworth/Lutz >= Maze/Hanks/Williams. AU OL = UA OL. Trotter is hardly being asked to "carry" the fucking offense. He's got less to do than McCarron or any other QB in the SEC.
Protecting Auburn’s Quarterback:
- From 1990-2011, Auburn has allowed the quarterback to be sacked every 14.2 pass attempts.
- In 2009, Auburn’s quarterbacks were sacked every 17.3 pass attempts.
-In 2011, Auburn’s quarterbacks have been sacked every 10.5 pass attempts, which is below the standard average established over the past 22 seasons. It’s also the 20th worst sack ratio over the past 22 seasons.
-Through 5 games, Barrett Trotter has been sacked 11 times and hurried 27 times. That translate to a sack every 11.1 pass attempts and severe pressure every 4.7 pass attempts.
-Auburn is currently No. 81 nationally in protecting its quarterbacks from being sacked and 106th nationally in allowing tackles for loss.
Does this sound like a strong working environment for Barrett Trotter?
There is no disguising the fact Auburn’s offensive line is still a work in progress and the coaches are working diligently to improve it but until that time comes, the Auburn pass-offense will continue to struggle along with the running game.
Just to put things into better perspective, here is an offensive comparison of the 2009 and 2011 Auburn offenses through 5 games.
-The 2009 Auburn running game averaged 5.42 yards per rush and the 2011 offense averaged 4.57 yards per run.
-The 2009 offense went “3 & out” 20 percent of the time and the 2011 offense is currently at 31 percent.
-The 2009 offense converted 46 percent of their 3rd downs and the 2011 offense is currently at 42 percent.
-The 2009 offense allowed 2 sacks from 148 pass attempts and the 2011 offense has allowed 12 from 126 pass attempts.
Note: For the record, Kaos objects to this premise. When a QB is sacked there are myriad factors other than offensive line protection. Hanging on too long. Bailing out too early. Panicking.
There are those who advocate a quarterback change, with a high percentage of fans wanting to see Kiehl Frazier. The thought process is that a mobile quarterback should help the OL and limit the number of sacks. Though I have no doubt Frazier has a better chance of avoiding a sack than Barrett Trotter it doesn’t change the fact there is a consistent pass rush to avoid. If you are having problems with your water faucet, you don’t replace pipes; you repair the faucet.
Note: Kaos says Trotter is the faucet. Not the pipes. Unless it's just a washer or something minor, I always replace the faucet.
Though Auburn is working to expand Kiehl Frazier’s role in the offense, Coach Gene Chizik is made it clear the coaches are comfortable with Frazier’s ability to operate the complete offense. A logical conclusion would be if Frazier or Clint Moseley were the answer now, Gus Malzahn would be foolish not to start them now. No fan wants or needs to be more successful than the coaches themselves. It’s also important to remember that Dameyune Craig was sacked 35 times in 1997 despite being fleet of foot. I do like the way the coaches have brought Frazier along slowly and I have no doubt he will be successful when his time comes to be the starting quarterback. For now, I trust the coaches decision to play the quarterback that gives Auburn the best opportunity for success. It just makes a lot of sense as silly as it might sound.
Note: He trusts the coaches. They want to win worse than you do. Stat has read the Creed.
Performing Under Pressure:
I have seen comments that Barrett Trotter buckles under pressure and he’s just not good enough to lead a SEC caliber offense. Here are some interesting facts about Trotter.
-He currently has a pass rating of 176.7 on 3rd down, which is considerably higher than the average overall quarterback rating of FBS quarterbacks, which is about 125 to 127.
-How good is Trotter’s 176.7 rating on 3rd down? Cameron Newton had a rating of 159.3 in 2010. Chris Todd had a rating of 118.9 in 2009 and Brandon Cox had a rating of 95.7 during his senior year as a 3-year starter.
I always look at pass ratings on 3rd down to get a better idea of just how good a quarterback is performing because 3rd down is the most difficult down to be successful.
- When Auburn has faced 3rd & 7 or longer this season, Barrett Trotter has a pass rating of 198.5, converting 41 percent of his 3rd downs, passing the football.
-Under the same circumstances, Newton had a pass rating of 123.4 facing 3rd and long, converting 29.3 percent of those 3rd downs.
-In 2009, Chris Todd had a rating of 100.1, facing 3rd & long, converting 28.3 percent of those 3rd downs.
- In 2007, Brandon Cox had a rating of 75.4, facing 3rd & long, converting 21.3 percent of those 3rd downs.
If performance on 3rd downs isn’t enough to convince you of Trotter’s abilities, how about performance, when the teaming is trailing on the scoreboard? Here is a look at Auburn’s quarterback numbers, when Auburn is losing on the scoreboard.
-Barrett Trotter has a pass rating of 178.6, when Auburn is losing with 44.7 percent of his pass attempts resulting in a first down.
-Cameron Newton had a pass rating of 184.5, when Auburn was losing in 2010 with 44.0 percent of his pass attempts resulting in a first down.
-In 2009. Chris Todd had a pass rating of 133.4, when Auburn was losing, with 29.6 percent of his pass attempts resulting in a first down.
-In 2007, Brandon Cox had a pass rating of 100.9, when Auburn trailed on the scoreboard, with 24.7 percent of his passes resulting in a first down.
Do the above numbers indicate Trotter cannot perform under pressure?
Note: I think his performance indicates that. Where are the stats on freaking out, running sideline to sideline and throwing passes to the opposition?
Some fans have stated that Barrett Trotter holds the ball too long. I’ve heard that he is too slow in his progressions and he doesn’t go through his progressions at all. Which one is it? I guess you could say both if you simply wanted a quarterback change. I’ve heard he stares down his receivers too much and he relies on Emory Blake too much. I won’t address the progressions debate because I don’t know Auburn’s passing progressions for each passing play. I could guess but won’t bother but I would imagine when most fans talk about pass progressions, they actually have no idea either but it does sound cool to say.
Note: Condescending tone detected. Warn meter spikes.
Does he stare down his receivers? I have no doubt he does because if Peyton Manning or Tom Brady still do it from time to time, I would imagine Barrett Trotter does too as a first year starter at the collegiate level. As far as targeting Emory Blake, I believe it to be more system related than Trotter based on the percentage of pass attempts directed at Blake being about the same as Chris Todd, throwing to Darvin Adams in 2009 and Cameron Newton, throwing to Darvin Adams in 2010. The “one” receiver in Malzahn’s offense has been targeted about 25-28 percent at Auburn.
How can Auburn help Barrett Trotter become more efficient?
-The offensive line needs to improve for Trotter and the entire offense to improve. No. Blame mislaid.
-It would help if Gus Malzahn called more pass plays on first down. Throwing only 3 times on 35 first down plays made the offense extremely predictable, which not only hurt the passing game, it also made defending the run on first down easier. No: Three things happen when Trotter passes and three of them aren't good. Second and ten sucks way, way worse than second and seven or eight.
-Having more pass attempts on 3rd down than 1st down is not a good thing because you are throwing more when you have to than when you want to. Only 28.7 percent of Trotter’s passes have come on first down. Duh: Throwing bad.
-39.8 percent of Stephen Garcia’s passes have come on 1st down. It’s 47.1 percent for Tyler Wilson of Arkansas and 45.0 percent for AJ McCarron of Alabama. It’s 39.2 percent of Tyler Bray of Tennessee and 37.8 percent for Aaron Murray of Georgia. Before he was injured, it was 35.3 percent for John Brantley of Florida. All six quarterbacks have attempted more passes on first down than 3rd down but this is not the case for Barrett Trotter, who has been placed in a position of playing uphill.
No: All but McCarron are better quarterbacks than Trotter, but McCarron are more accomplished. Garcia is a whack-a-doo but he is a nine-year starter in the league. Playing uphill is second and ten (or second and 23 after a scramble sack. Or first and the other way after a pick. I THOUGHT YOU TRUSTED THE COACHES, STAT?
- In the last 2 games, Trotter has completed 8 passes on first down for a grand total of 17-yards. The wide-receiver screens just aren’t working right now and Auburn would be better off throwing a little further down field. How about some crossing routes and slants on first down? No: Those take time. Trotter can't or won't take the time to let that develop. Sorry. Again, what happened to trusting the coaches?
-For the season, he is completing 69.2 percent of his passes within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. More short crossing routes would allow Auburn to take advantage of Travante Stallworth’s quickness or Brandon Fulse’s size. I would add Philip Lutzenkirchen but he is playing more “5” than “3” because he’s being utilized as a fullback more than a TE.
No: I don't think he understands what that means, but it just sounds cool to say it.
For those that took time to read all of this, I truly appreciate your time. I hope some who have been negative towards Barrett Trotter will cut him some slack based on the data and information I provided. No: Information is faulty and skewed and relies on suppositions not supported by visual evidence.
He won’t be winning a Heisman Trophy any time soon but Trotter is extremely intelligent and a strong competitor. What's his SAT score?
When given time to throw, he has placed the ball where it needs to go more often than not. Perhaps we should request that the opposing defense count to ten Mississippi to give him additional time to jibber jab. Give ME enough time and I will eventually find an open receiver. Might take all quarter, but I would find one.
His numbers against South Carolina were nothing to write home about but he did convert 5 third downs, throwing the football and picked up a sixth, with his feet. He has made critical plays in every game this season, directing 2 game-winning drives. Has he been consistent? No he has not but it is primarily due to an inexperienced offensive line and being placed in too many obvious passing situations. That is not a good combination for ANY quarterback.
No: This analysis makes assumptions that are not supported.
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