The only thing I miss about AUF..

[Kaos]

Stat Tiger could come up with some shit.

The most glaring concern on defense has to be Auburn’s struggles on third down. If there is anything that needs to be addressed immediately, it is 3rd down defense. How bad is it?

In situations where the opponent has faced 3rd and 4 or longer, here is the conversion rates since 2007, when the opponent passed the football.

2007: 34 of 116 (29.3%)
2008: 19 of 93 (20.4%)
2009: 27 of 101 (26.7%)
2010: 33 of 111 (29.7%)
2011: 17 of 30 (56.7%)

The above numbers reveal just how bad Auburn has been on 3rd down and obvious passing situations this season. If this cannot be repaired to some degree, Auburn will be toast in every critical game they play the remainder of the season. How does Auburn repair the problem?

Against Clemson, Auburn ran more man coverage in the first half and more zone during the second half. Auburn forced nine 3rd down situations during the first half of the Clemson game. This resulted in an average of 6-yards needed to convert those 3rd downs. Playing more zone during the 2nd half, Auburn forced 9 more 3rd down situations but for an average distance of 4.1 yards. Clemson converted 6 of 9 third downs in the first half and 8 of 9 in the second half. Neither conversion rate is great but 6 of 9 is much better than 8 of 9.

The other benefit from more man coverage than zone was that Clemson was held to 64 yards rushing in the first half but rushed for 174-yards during the second half with more zone. I realize one game is not sufficient evidence to come to a solid conclusion but IMO; more man coverage would benefit a young defense than zone coverage. The defense must have the ability to play both but more man coverage would likely make the defense more productive than what we have witnessed.

Auburn has 2 sacks through 3 games on defense. Auburn’s inability to put pressure on Clemson’s quarterback with their front four was obvious. I believe we are fairly solid at DE but quarterbacks are stepping up in the pocket and still getting their passes off with no pressure coming from Auburn’s interior line.

Consider the following…

Through 3 games, Auburn’s 2011 DT’s have combined for 28 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 0 sacks and 2 QB hurries. Last season through 3 games, Auburn’s DT’s had 28 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and 11 hurries. The coaches can’t change the fact that AU’s interior line is young and not developed physically and mentally enough to be dominant. So how does Auburn get more pressure on 3rd down? There are not many options but to blitz more often.

The concern for blitzing is the risk of giving up the big play.

Consider these numbers…

Last season through 3 games, the Auburn defense defended 118 passes of which 1 resulted in a play of 30-yards or more and 13 resulted in 15-yards or more. Playing with the same philosophy on defense in terms of keeping everything in front and not giving up the big play, the 2011 defense has defended 107 passes. The opponent has 4 plays of 30-yards or more and 18 plays of 15-yards or more. IMO, Auburn is still giving up big plays playing conservative so the risk of blitzing cannot be any worse than the constant dinking opponents have done to AU’s pass-defense.

The problem with blitzing is Auburn’s inability to disguise it. More than not, the opposing QB can check down to a hot route if he observes an obvious blitz and the point of the attack. Auburn might not be able to disguise all their blitzes completely but they can make it confusing to where it is coming from. Bottom line, I think the risk is worth the reward if Auburn applies pressure on just about every obvious passing down. It cannot get much worse than what we have seen in terms of the opponent converting 3rd downs at an alarming rate. I’d rather see a team score in 4 plays rather than 16 because at least Auburn’s offense gets a chance to answer back. Against Clemson, Auburn had 7 possessions in the first half and only 4 during the second half because the defense could not get off the field.

When the opponent has 3rd & 4 or greater, the opponent has thrown the ball 75 percent of the time. If Auburn isn’t blitzing, they need to be in tight coverage. There is nothing more defeating than when the secondary is playing off the ball near or behind the first down line, basically giving up real estate. I understand the concept of not giving up the big play but that isn’t working in 2011 so why not bring more pressure and not be so predictable. If this team is going down, I just want to see them fighting every step away of the way, conceding nothing to the opponent. I realize youth is a major and valid problem this year but I want to see these young men given an opportunity to be successful.

my 2 cents worth...

[AU_Tiger_2000]

That guy either is unemployed, or works for the University as a statistician.

[Snaggletiger]

That guy either is unemployed, or works for the University as a statistician.

I may be mistaken but I think he's in law enforcement.  But then, I have Oldtimers disease.

[Token]

I may be mistaken but I think he's in law enforcement.  But then, I have Oldtimers disease.

Just what in the fuck are you trying to say?

[Tiger Wench]

Just what in the fuck are you trying to say?

Lighten up, Francis.  StatTiger is actually a jackbooted thug in real life just like you are.  Snaggie remembrys one correctly for a change.

[Snaggletiger]

Just what in the fuck are you trying to say?

That's all you law enforcement types do.  You sit around.....eating donuts....digging up trivial statistics...and stuff.  Oh, and tazzzzing people.  And writing parking tickets.  And keeping a brother down.  That's all you do.

[Token]

That's all you law enforcement types do.  You sit around.....eating donuts....digging up trivial statistics...and stuff.  Oh, and tazzzzing people.  And writing parking tickets.  And keeping a brother down.  That's all you do.

Just making sure we are on the same page. 

[JR4AU]

That's all you law enforcement types do.  You sit around.....eating donuts....digging up trivial statistics...and stuff.  Oh, and tazzzzing people.  And writing parking tickets.  And keeping a brother down.  That's all you do.

That would have been a busy day in my jack-boot thug days. 

[Snaggletiger]

That would have been a busy day in my jack-boot thug days.

Nowdays, you just concentrate on keeping a brother down.

[JR4AU]

Nowdays, you just concentrate on keeping a brother down.

I don't multitask well.  I do one thing, and I do it well.

[Jumbo]

We need to approve on 3rd down.....no shit.

[AUJarhead]

We need to approve on 3rd down.....no shit.

He's not the best colorman in the league for nothing, folks!

[Jumbo]

He's not the best colorman in the league for nothing, folks!

Who gives a shit, nobody is listening anyway.

[AUTiger1]

That guy either is unemployed, or works for the University as a statistician.

I know that he writes for Scout from time to time as well as being a jack boot thug.

[Kaos]

I know that he writes for Scout from time to time as well as being a jack boot thug.

He should come here where his attention to detail, obsessive statistical analysis and mathematical insight would be mocked, cursed and ridiculed.   

Seriously.  He should come here.  Instead he posts for idiot sheep in other places. 

[AWK]

Who gives a shit, nobody is listening anyway.

Start a webpage.

[ssgaufan]

Start a webpage.

He doesn't know the format.

[AUTiger1]

He should come here where his attention to detail, obsessive statistical analysis and mathematical insight would be mocked, cursed and ridiculed.   

Seriously.  He should come here.  Instead he posts for idiot sheep in other places.

Kind of makes the old black heart glow a faint hue of red doesn't it?

Yes he should come visit and post.

[GH2001]

Good stats, but did it occur to him that we may have given up less 3rd down conversions in the first half because they had further to go? They had a avg of 3rd and Medium/Long (6+) in the first half. Compare that to 3rd and short (4) in the second. Of course they converted more in the 3rd and short situations.

K, he reminds me of Jadennis.

[djsimp]

K, he reminds me of Jadennis.

When I first saw a StatTiger post, thats eggzackery who I thought it was.