Shocking!

[JR4AU]

Is not not more newsworthy that half the respondents could give a rat's ass about the rivalry?

It's Alabama's state; Auburn's just living in it
Published: Tuesday, August 23, 2011, 8:49 AM     Updated: Tuesday, August 23, 2011, 8:49 AM
By Kevin Scarbinsky, Birmingham News

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama - Who's going to start the season at quarterback for Alabama? Who's going to end the season there for Auburn? Who's going to play that position for LSU against Auburn and Alabama?

Less than two weeks before kickoff, and there's still so much we don't know about college football in this state.

There is one thing we do know. It's Alabama's state, by a 2-1 margin, and Auburn is just living in it.

That's more than the opinion of the preseason AP poll voters.

It's really not an opinion at all.

It's a scientific fact, brought to you not by the president of the local Red Elephant Club but a retired political science professor from none other than Auburn University.

Gerald Johnson is the director of the Capital Survey Research Center in Montgomery. People who know about such things tell me he's the most respected pollster in the state.

What does Johnson have to tell us about the accepted wisdom that there are more Alabama fans in this state than Auburn fans? It's become a cliché because it's true, and it's not close.

When Johnson does statewide scientific surveys, he likes to throw in a question or two of personal interest. He asked the same question in 2004, after Auburn went undefeated but uncrowned nationally, and again in April, after Auburn followed Alabama's BCS title with one of its own.

The question: Overall, do you identify yourself as an Alabama fan, an Auburn fan, a fan of both, a fan of neither or don't know/no reply?

The answer in 2011: Of the 577 registered voters in this state who participated in the telephone survey and were representative of the state demographically, 215 (or 37 percent) identified themselves as Alabama fans while 102 (or 18 percent) called themselves Auburn fans.

That's twice as many Roll Tides as War Eagles.

In fact, more people called themselves fans of both schools (115 or 20 percent) or neither school (126 or 22 percent) than singled themselves out as Auburn supporters.

My non-statistical, anecdotal aside: You know what they call Alabama residents that say they support the Crimson Tide and the Tigers? Liars.

What's the real truth behind the numbers?

"There's more fandom in this state than just Alabama and Auburn," Johnson said. "People think it's all Alabama and Auburn. That's simply not so. Both UA and AU should be a bit more humble after seeing the data. Neither school has anywhere close to a majority exclusive fan base."

That's not news to the supporters of Troy and UAB, Samford and Jax State, Alabama State and Alabama A&M, etc. But this state does revolve around the Iron Bowl rivals. There's a reason ESPN is working on a documentary called "Roll Tide/War Eagle."

Go back to the breakdown between the Big Two. Twice as many Alabama fans as Auburn fans in the state in 2011? After the Tigers just won their first national title in 53 years? Is that part of the Nick Saban effect?

Statistically speaking, no. When Johnson's July, 2004 statewide survey asked the same fan question, the answers broke down in a similar way: 36 percent Alabama fans, 21 percent Auburn fans, 19 percent fans of both, 21 percent fans of neither and 3 percent don't know/no reply.

Given the sample margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percent, Johnson said, "there was no difference statistically" between 2004 and 2011.

So, contrary to popular belief, there hasn't been a surge in Alabama fans or a drop in Auburn fans since Saban arrived with so much fanfare and turned his promise into performance. Nor has there been a counter surge in Auburn fans since Gene Chizik and his team shocked the Tide and the world last season.

"Auburn and Alabama fandom is almost genetic," Johnson said. "It starts early, and events really don't change it. It's a cultural process rather than a free-will choice."

There you have it. The numbers don't lie. These scores just in:

Nature 2, Nurture 0.

Alabama 2, Auburn 1.

A

[Tiger Wench]

That's because bammers breed like maggots.  Makes that monthly check bigger, dontcha know.

[War Eagle!!!]

I wonder what the results would be if there was a poll taken outside the state of Alabama. I would bet the numbers equal out a bit. In my opinion, there are far more Auburn fans outside of Alabama than there are Alabama fans. When I travel, I constantly see Auburn shit by 2 to 3 times as much as Alabama shit...

[AUChizad]

I wonder what the results would be if there was a poll taken outside the state of Alabama. I would bet the numbers equal out a bit. In my opinion, there are far more Auburn fans outside of Alabama than there are Alabama fans. When I travel, I constantly see Auburn shit by 2 to 3 times as much as Alabama shit...

Substitute any minority group for "Auburn" and any majority group for Alabama, and that's still a bad headline.

[Townhallsavoy]

[Godfather]

WOW no one else caught 577 voters....that is his whole poll?!?  WOW!

Did he stop to think that maybe the Auburn people were busy you know doing what CEO's do. While the bammers where just muddling about their trailers.

[dallaswareagle]

I wonder what the results would be if there was a poll taken outside the state of Alabama. I would bet the numbers equal out a bit. In my opinion, there are far more Auburn fans outside of Alabama than there are Alabama fans. When I travel, I constantly see Auburn shit by 2 to 3 times as much as Alabama shit...

It's hard to leave the trailer park and that single wide.