As most of you know, I tend to be pessimistic. It would be easy to buy into the "best we can hope for is six wins" mantra that has been throbbing for three months now.
But I'm not buying it. And here's why.
1) Gus.
The year before he got to Tulsa, the team scored 360 points. In his two seasons there the Golden Hurricane racked up 1237 (average of 44 points per). They scored 661 in his second season. His first season at Auburn, with essentially the same talent that had scored an anemic 208 points in 2008, Auburn's offense set records with 433 points. The Tigers scored 577 a year ago.
Auburn scored 433 points with a noodle-armed, concrete-footed statue and one running back with a little pop. Whoever is running the offense in 2011 will be at least as effective as Todd. Dyer and Onterrio can match what Ben gave.
Cam Newton. Cam Newton. Cam Newton. Yes, he was great. Probably the best player not named Bo Jackson I've ever seen. Yes he accounted for a ton of offensive yards. But if you study what Malzahn has been able to accomplish over the past five years, most of those yards were going to come from somewhere anyway. Cam's determination was the difference in the Kentucky game. He was a major factor against Carolina and Clemson early. But had Cam not been there, the plan would have been different. Maybe not undefeated, but definitely a contender.
The offense isn't going to melt away and be unable to do anything.
2. Resilience.
Cam got a lot of credit for leading comebacks and giving Auburn a chance to win. And he was invaluable. But back up a year. West Virginia? Auburn got down and came back with Todd.
Cam made them believe they could overcome ANY hurdle, but the seeds for that were already sewn. The ability to score (which AU will have) at any time from anywhere makes anything possible.
AU is like Rocky 3 every week. Or like Ali against Foreman. "That all you got?" Okay, watch the ass whipping commence.
3. Defense
Weakest argument, but let's make it anyway.
Oh no! Can't overcome the loss of Nick Fairley. Who knew Nick's name at this time last year? His momma?
The offense puts the defense at a disadvantage. No question. Look at Tulsa when Malzahn was there. The year before he arrived, the defense allowed 262 points. The year after he left it allowed 328. In his two seasons, the Tulsa defense surrendered 467 and 391 points.
Defense showed signs late of getting it together. The second half of the Alabama game was brutally masterful. The NC game was an exhibition of dominance. There will be new faces and linebacker is a major concern (frankly, the loss of Bynes is greater than the loss of Fairley) but the changes in the secondary seem positive and the line will be solid.
4. History
Pat Sullivan won the Heisman in 1971. Auburn went 9-2. The 1972 Auburn team without Sullivan and Beasley was supposed to suck total ass. Anybody remember 1972? 10-1. Best team in the country at the end of the year.
Bo Jackson won the Heisman in 1985. The Tigers went 8-4. Auburn was supposed to fall off the cliff in 1986. Anybody remember 1986? 10-2.
5. Saban.
His fifth season at LSU was his most disappointing.
Tyrannical assholes typically have a shelf life of four to five years before people start tuning their ass out and defying their bullshit. The jackass method of management normally cannot sustain itself long-term.
Ego-driven assclowns like Saban react to losing their grip by being an even bigger ass and cutting corners (ethically and morally). That's already started to happen. Saban is at the ass end of his effectiveness. He's never HAD to sustain and has no idea how to do that.
No question he can come in, change the culture by being a colossal prick and achieve short-term (and in Bama's case pretty impressive) results. But he is not going to have patience with the worst fanbase in sports history after they lose their collective shit when UA fails to get the title back from Auburn. Should that failure be coupled with a loss to the Tigers? Wow. You thought the summer of hate this year was bad? Wait to see them devour themselves in a frenzy of self-loathing.
Is it possible AU wins five or six games and gets mauled by the Alabama national title train? Of course. But I just don't see it.
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