Naysayers Out In Full Force...

[AUChizad]

http://mobile.al.com/advbirm/pm_29180/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=Cybfh3GU

Naysayers out in force for Auburn, but history shows steep drop-off for defending champs is rareEvan Woodbery/Auburn Bureau, The Birmingham News, Press-Register, and The Huntsville Times 07/10/2011 9:25 AM

AUBURN, Alabama -- Coaches have played the lack-of-respect card for so long that it's become a tired cliché.

But for this year's Auburn Tigers, it has a ring of authenticity.

If many pundits are correct, Auburn will have the worst follow-up to a national-championship season in recent history.

Preseason magazines, Las Vegas oddsmakers and sports pundits have set expectations for the defending national champions at a historically low level.

Stars such as quarterback Cam Newton and defensive end Nick Fairley are gone, and the Tigers must replace more starters than any other team in the country while facing one of the nation's toughest schedules.

Even so, this year's Tigers will have the fruits of three solid recruiting classes and a small but championship-tested group of older players. Could they really struggle as much as some predict?

"You can't give it much thought," said quarterback Barrett Trotter, "because it really doesn't matter."

In Las Vegas, the low expectations have been jarring. Casinos that provide early game lines have the Tigers as an underdog in as many as seven or eight of their 12 contests. And in games in which the lines have fluctuated since opening, they've moved dramatically in favor of Auburn's opponents. One Vegas blog even speculated that the Tigers could become a popular value pick for contrarian bettors simply because the consensus has swung so resoundingly against them.

Another popular blog entry noted that teams that outperform their projected record by winning a lot of close games tend to lose a higher percentage of those close games in future years, balancing out the record over time.

Football magazine guru Phil Steele, who was one of the earliest trumpeters of Auburn in 2010, thinks the Tigers will tumble to sixth in the SEC West in 2011. He noted that Auburn's seven "net close wins" were the highest in the nation last year, and those numbers tend to correct quickly.

Applying baseball statistician Bill James' "Pythagorean wins" idea to football -- as another blog did recently -- shows that Auburn "overachieved" by 2.5 wins in SEC play last year.

The Pythagorean record formula uses a team's points scored and points allowed to develop an "expected record." A team with a record significantly better or worse than their expected record could be considered to have good or bad luck, respectively, although it could also point to an ability to win (or lose) in close games.

Auburn assistant head coach Trooper Taylor used the low expectations as a motivational ploy during spring, and a flood of recent articles will give him plenty of fodder if he wants to do the same next month when preseason practice begins.

"I tell (players), 'Players graduate; tradition never graduates,'" he said. "What I want them to understand is that (the low expectations) are everyone else's perception. I talk to them about it every day. I want them to realize that."

There's no recent precedent for a championship team falling as far as some predict for Auburn.

The Bowl Coalition was born in 1992, giving way to the Bowl Championship Series six years later. In those 18 seasons, the defending national champions have lost an average of 2.3 games.

The worst showing was LSU in 2008, when the Tigers went 8-5 overall and 3-5 in the SEC. Florida had nine wins one year after the 2006 title. LSU won nine in Nick Saban's final year there in 2004.

But seven wins? Six wins? Even a losing record, as only the boldest prognosticators have suggested? It has never happened for a defending national title team.

And players don't think it will.

"I've never really put much stock into preseason (predictions) at all," Trotter said. "I don't really care what people rank us. All that matters is what you do in the season." 


National champions beginning with the Bowl Coalition Era 

Only one team has had fewer than nine wins after their national championship season, and no team has had fewer than eight.

1992 -- Alabama

Next year: Went 9-3-1, although all but one win was later forfeited.

1993 -- Florida State

Next year: Went 10-1-1 and 8-0 in ACC. Won Sugar Bowl

1994 -- Nebraska

Next year: Won national title.

1995 -- Nebraska

Next year: Went 11-2, undefeated in the Big 12.

1996 -- Florida

Next year: Went 10-2, 6-2 in SEC.

1997 -- Nebraska

Next year: Went 9-4 in Frank Solich's debut season.

---- Bowl Championship Series Era begins ---

1998 -- Tennessee

Next year: Went 9-3, 6-2.

1999 -- Florida State

Next year: Went 11-2. Won ACC, but lost in Orange Bowl.

2000 -- Oklahoma

Next year: Went 10-3 and won Cotton Bowl.

2001 -- Miami (Fla.)

Next year: Went 12-1 , losing to Ohio State in national title game.

2002 -- Ohio State

Next year: Went 11-2 and finished fourth in the rankings.

2003 -- LSU

Next year: Went 9-3, 6-2 in Nick Saban's final season.

2004 -- USC

Next year: Lost in national championship game after finishing 12-0. Wins later vacated.

2005 -- Texas

Next year: Went 10-3.

2006 -- Florida

Next year: Went 9-4, 5-3.

2007 -- LSU

Next year: Went 8-5, 3-5.

2008 -- Florida

Next year: Only loss was to Alabama in SEC title game.

2009 -- Alabama

Next year: Went 10-3

2010 -- Auburn

Next year: ???

[JR4AU]

The primary naysaying noise is made by bammers and bammer media.  It's more about their hopes and dreams really.  They can't make us give the trophies back, so the next best thing is for us to suck the year after. 

[jordanharehaint]

"Another popular blog entry noted that teams that outperform their projected record by winning a lot of close games tend to lose a higher percentage of those close games in future years, balancing out the record over time."


Winning close games in 2010 was balancing out the record for losing some close games in 2008 and 2009.  We should start fresh this year.  :D

[Wincrimson]

The primary naysaying noise is made by bammers and bammer media.

No.

[jmar]

No.

Those that do these statistical comparisons rate each game alike be it September or November. And the team that won against Kentucky was far from the team that mind-fucked Bamer fans forever. It's okay to predict six wins or less if you want to run the numbers...but in doing so you ignore just how amazing Gus Malzahn is at putting up record numbers with pretty good talent and Ted Roof complimenting the no-huddle with timely big strikes again with pretty good talent. Yes some all important experience is missing that just can't be accounted for just as the hearts of very good inexperienced talent can't be guaged. Auburn fans might be expecting too much of Chizik. But he has never disappointed me as a fan and I don't expect that to change. I'm still all in 'cause I'm still undefeated.  WDE! 

 

[Wincrimson]

How else are they supposed to do the comparisons?  I'm not advocating their worth to to be any more valuable than the paper it's printed on, but then again, their accuracy was not my point.

JR made the comment that all the pre-season negativity was coming from the evil crimson empire.  And it's not.

[The Prowler]

(7-5/8-4), or better, isn't going to cause me any heartache.

[jmar]

How else are they supposed to do the comparisons?  I'm not advocating their worth to to be any more valuable than the paper it's printed on, but then again, their accuracy was not my point.

JR made the comment that all the pre-season negativity was coming from the evil crimson empire.  And it's not.

        Don't make me get all gimmicky on your ass.
                                 

[JR4AU]

How else are they supposed to do the comparisons?  I'm not advocating their worth to to be any more valuable than the paper it's printed on, but then again, their accuracy was not my point.

JR made the comment that all the pre-season negativity was coming from the evil crimson empire.  And it's not.

I didn't say all.  I said the primary noise is generated here at home, and echoed elsewhere. 

[GH2001]

I didn't say all.  I said the primary noise is generated here at home, and echoed elsewhere.

Phil Steele isn't.

What kills me about him is he is the most accurate one out there. He's pretty objective. He also nailed us in 2008.

[Snaggletiger]

Phil Steele isn't.

What kills me about him is he is the most accurate one out there. He's pretty objective. He also nailed us in 2008.

I picked up Steele's mag the other day.  I've never bought one of his but it was the only one that had national coverage.  Holy crap, what a waste of money.  Not because of his predictions, but because he crams 47 pages of useless information on to 2 pages....filled with meaningless stats and Phil Steele super secret codes to evaluate each player.  The type is so small, it's not worth trying to decipher any of it.  Had some peaople over last night and a couple of them picked it up and said, "what the hell is this?  Can you actually read this?"

[GH2001]

I picked up Steele's mag the other day.  I've never bought one of his but it was the only one that had national coverage.  Holy crap, what a waste of money.  Not because of his predictions, but because he crams 47 pages of useless information on to 2 pages....filled with meaningless stats and Phil Steele super secret codes to evaluate each player.  The type is so small, it's not worth trying to decipher any of it.  Had some peaople over last night and a couple of them picked it up and said, "what the hell is this?  Can you actually read this?"

Saying he has a complex way of coming up with his ratings is an understatement. But he is usually right. And I hate it.

[JR4AU]

Saying he has a complex way of coming up with his ratings is an understatement. But he is usually right. And I hate it.

What was his 2010 preseason Top 25?

[wesfau2]

What was his 2010 preseason Top 25?

Well, his ranking is a bit different: he picks where he thinks the teams will finish.  So...he doesn't really do a "pre-season" ranking except in the sense that it comes out before the season starts.

[Kaos]

His top ten was

UA
OSU
Boise
Texas
TCU
Iowa
UF
V-Tech
Oregon

Finished

Auburn
TCU
Oregon
Stanford
OSU
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
LSU
Boise
Alabama

He got five of ten.  A monkey with a can of whipped cream could have figured Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon.  Boise and TCU were givens pretty much. 

He toots his own horn a lot.  That makes him a tooter. 

[Snaggletiger]

His top ten was

UA
OSU
Boise
Texas
TCU
Iowa
UF
V-Tech
Oregon

Finished

Auburn
TCU
Oregon
Stanford
OSU
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
LSU
Boise
Alabama

He got five of ten.  A monkey with a can of whipped cream could have figured Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon.  Boise and TCU were givens pretty much. 

He toots his own horn a lot.  That makes him a tooter.

So, you're saying Auburn gets 13 wins this year?  Kool

[The Prowler]

His top ten was

UA
OSU
Boise
Texas
TCU
Iowa
UF
V-Tech
Oregon

Finished

Auburn
TCU
Oregon
Stanford
OSU
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
LSU
Boise
Alabama

He got five of ten.  A monkey with a can of whipped cream could have figured Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon.  Boise and TCU were givens pretty much. 

He toots his own horn a lot.  That makes him a tooter. 

For him to toot his own horn so much, he didn't get any of them correct....none.

[JR4AU]

For him to toot his own horn so much, he didn't get any of them correct....none.

Complete whiff on VaTech, Tx, UF.  And of course Auburn.  IOW, guess work using the usual suspects.

[Kaos]

I'm just saying Phil Steele can SUCK IT!

He hides his power rankings by updating them every week so you can never go back and see what he originally said unless you keep that shitty magazine of his. 

He updates his "predictions" with current results so it appears he is 100% accurate.  Fuck this guy. 

2004, 2005, 2006 averaged accuracy rankings:
1. Lindy's 179
2. College Football News 179 (1 year provided)
3. Surefire 182 (1 year provided)
4. CNN/SI 182 (1 year provided)
5. CBS SL 183 (2 years provided)
6. Southern College Sports 183.5 (2 years provided)
7. Street & Smith 183.333
8. Gold Sheet 186.333
9. Athlon 186.667
10. ATS Consulting 188.333
11. Game Plan 189
12. Blue Ribbon 190.333
13. Sporting News 194.333
14. CPA 195
15. Phil Steele 203.333

LAST.  Fucking LAST in accuracy. 

He was 8th last year. 

http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2010.html

http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2009.html

Seventh the year before that. 

Fuck Phil Steele with a steele dildo. 

He's no different than the rest. 

Give me a monkey and can of whipped cream.  He can shoot the can at a schedule on the wall and do just as good as Phil Steele. 

[noxin]

Give me a monkey and can of whipped cream.  He can shoot the can at a schedule on the wall and do just as good as Phil Steele.

Who needs Phil Steele when you've got a monkey and whipped cream anyways?