Draft Winds: A thorough breakdown of Cam Newton

[Saniflush]

This should occupy most of your afternoon.

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/02/draft_winds_a_thorough_breakdo.html

By Chris Kouffman & Simon Clancy

Hello again and welcome to the fourth installment of our Draft Winds series for the 2011 NFL Draft. Each week we aim to bring you the best and most thorough Draft information possible, all from the vantage of Miami Dol-Fans hoping for the franchise to improve their favorite team in late April. For obvious reasons, we had been planning on a close examination of the quarterbacks available in this year’s Draft. Among this year’s quarterbacks class stands a player that is so enigmatic, so controversial, we felt he deserved his own special so that we could sort out facts from myth. That quarterback is Cam Newton of Auburn. The last seven days have seen Cam’s name buzzing up quite a bit, in no small part due to his media workout on February 10th, but also due to a piece of news revealed by a prominent Draftnik.

Are the Miami Dolphins interested in Cam Newton?

Prior to the media workout that Cam held in San Diego, Tony Pauline of DraftInsiders.net and CNNSI dropped a bomb on Draftniks and Miami Dol-Fans alike, when he wrote:

"Last week in San Antonio at least six different teams said they rank Auburn quarterback Cam Newton as the number one prospect in the draft. The opinions were comprised from scouts, personnel directors and a few coaches. All had Newton rated clearly higher than Da’Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley, Marcel Dareus and competing signal caller Blaine Gabbert. We hear the Miami Dolphins have been inquiring heavily into Newton at this stage of the game."

The first piece of news did not come as a total shock, as we at Universal Draft had already made the decision to undergo a ‘Cam Newton Special’ piece for the Sun Sentinel, and so we were elbows-deep in Newton footage which had led to the ultimate conclusion that Cam could and probably should go No. 1 overall to the Carolina Panthers. Hearing that six other teams potentially agree with us on that was a nice confirmation of our suspicions.

However, what really caught our attention was his confirmation that the Dolphins were elbows-deep in their own research on Newton. As we have discussed in previous Draft Winds segments, we believe the Dolphins could be bold in this Draft and move up for the right prospect. Several teams in the top 5 of the Draft have already expressed a willingness to move down. Some may believe that giving up resources to move up is too far out of character for the current Dolphins regime, but then those same people similarly ruled out a Brandon Marshall trade on that basis. Through our own sources, we happen to know that owner Steve Ross was a heavy influence in General Manager Jeff Ireland’s decision to pull the trigger and acquire a No. 1 wide receiver, a need widely perceived as the most pressing for the Dolphins at the time. We could easily imagine Mr. Ross putting pressure on Ireland to again satisfy the Dolphins’ most pressing need in a way that brings fans back to the seats at Sun Life Stadium.

After the 2010 season ended, we heard a report that Tony Sparano engaged in a study of the most big play-oriented offenses in the NFL, and came away convinced that the ability to earn ‘chunk yardage’ through the air ties in strongly to a quarterback’s feet and ability to buy time. We find that all signs point to the Dolphins wanting more mobility at the quarterback position. Brian Daboll’s offense in Cleveland worked best when the mobile, former spread-option quarterback Colt McCoy lined up under Center. The list of quarterbacks connected with the Dolphins’ search includes a suspicious number of passers well known for mobility, such as Vince Young, Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb and Colin Kaepernick. Adding Cam Newton to the list only strengthens our belief that the Dolphins are focused on what a quarterback with nimble feet can offer their offense.

Pretending for a moment that the Dolphins have the motivation to acquire Cam Newton, the question remains whether they have the ability to trade up far enough to acquire him. The lack of a CBA is both blessing and curse, in this respect. The lack of progress on that front makes it unclear whether any veterans under contract can in fact be traded for better draft position. This would make a trade, like the one that moved the Jets into position to select Mark Sanchez, more difficult to execute. Miami has a few assets that are valuable to them (you must trade value to get value), but could stand to be lost if it meant acquiring a franchise quarterback. One potential blessing of the CBA situation is that it potentially gives the Dolphins more valuable bargaining chips in the form of picks in the 2012 Draft. There are insiders that believe that any pending rookie wage scale that is part of a new CBA will not cover the pending Draft class. That would make 1st round draft choices in 2012 much more valuable than 1st round choices in 2011, because 1st round picks in 2012 would be cheaper, financially speaking. This would make it easier-than-normal for the Dolphins to move up in the 2011 Draft at the expense of picks in the 2012 Draft.

Even if you believe the current rookie class will be subject to a wage scale, as many do, there is the uncertainty of a lockout looming on the horizon. In normal years, draft prospects coming off a full year’s worth of layoff are not valued as highly as other prospects that have been playing straight through. One need only look at how the draft stock of players like DT Marvin Austin and WR Greg Little, both suspended for the 2010 season by North Carolina, has fallen. If there is a lockout in 2011, then the entire 2011 Draft class will show up to July training camp as youngsters that have been out of football for a year and a half. This stands opposed to the 2012 Draft class which will come in normally, having for the most past played college football in 2011. A lockout would damage an entire NFL Draft class’ stock, relative to future drafts. This could also potentially make some of the Miami Dolphins draft choices in the 2012 Draft valuable enough to use as bargaining chips for moving up in the 2011 Draft.


Should the Miami Dolphins be interested in Cam Newton?

Let’s take it as an assumption that the Dolphins are interested in Cam Newton, and they can select him in the NFL Draft, one way or another. The question before us then is thus: should the Miami Dolphins have interest in Cam Newton? What do we, as fans, think of the prospect of designating Cam Newton as our quarterback of the future? How good is he? Aren’t there valid reasons to be afraid of spending too many resources on him? The way we see it, with this particular prospect, there are five issues to be sorted through before you can come to any sort of conclusion on these questions. You must have adequately addressed issues of 1) Character, 2) Style, 3) Transition, 4) Experience, and finally 5) Talent. Below, we tackle each of these issues in turn, having gathered a number of pieces of evidence to back our suppositions and conclusions.

Character

Quite apart from what teams think of Newton on the field, it’s the issues that have been raised off it that will cause as many, if not more talking points and it’s something that the Miami Dolphins will need to be fully aware of, especially if they’re contemplating any sort of move for the Auburn signal caller. It’s best to retread the path of enlightenment that is the Dolphins involvement with players of questionable backgrounds especially considering how it pertains to the current regime. Despite some well publicized off-field incidents involving high profile players such as Ronnie Brown, Jason Ferguson and Tony McDaniel to name but three, the Dolphins have generally maintained some pretty strict guidelines when it comes to character: good characters make plays, bad ones make bail. If they’re lucky. They like team captains, men who study hard, work hard off the field and have shown leadership and maturity away from campus, although the ‘risk’ with Brandon Marshall marked something of a sea change a year ago. Of course, some of those things have been used as rods to beat Cam Newton with. So what do we know about his character, his off field transgressions and his work ethic? And what do we think we know? Because in one camp lies facts. And in the other lies a remarkable amount of hyperbole and fiction. No more, no less. So what are the facts?

1. Newton, whilst at Florida, was arrested by police after purchasing a stolen laptop. When it seemed as though he would be caught, he threw the computer out of his dorm window. On his arrest he was charged, according to Alachua County jail records, with burglary, larceny and obstruction of justice. The laptop belonged to a Florida student called Paul Loschak who reported it stolen in October of 2008. A week later he got an email from the school to say that his internet access was being shut down for using the file share programme Limewire, something he’d never installed on his computer. Campus authorities found that someone using Newton’s school log-in was using the computer and moved to arrest the then Gator back up QB. Loschak said he decided against pursuing the charges because he was graduating from UF in the spring and didn't want to return for court hearings. He also was afraid of retribution if Newton was kicked off the team, stating that at the time he was “more interested in my safety." Newton was required to attend anti-theft counseling, write an apology letter to Loschak and do 50 hours of community service in exchange for charges eventually being dropped.

2. That Newton was guilty of academic dishonesty whilst at Florida. He decided to transfer in the spring of 2009 because he wanted to play football. Understandable given his talent and the fact that he was behind Tim Tebow on the depth chart. However it was revealed in the late fall of 2010 that he was facing possible expulsion from the University at the time of his transfer after a Fox.com report that he had a “cheating issue” in his freshman year and then two more in his sophomore year. Whilst information about the freshman transgression is sketchy, as a sophomore Newton put his name on another student's paper and turned it in. Newton then turned in a second paper to the instructor, but that was later found to have been purchased off the Internet. Student conduct records are protected by law so it’s doubtful further information will be forthcoming.

3. Newton was guilty of a number of traffic violations during his time in Gainesville. Alachua County records again state that a Cameron Jerrell Newton with the Auburn quarterback's birth date of May 11 1989 had 12 tickets over a two-year period. All of them were for minor moving or non moving traffic violations: failure to stop at a red light, tag obscured/improperly displayed, unlawful speeding, failure to obey, passing in a no passing zone, drivers license not carried, running a red light, failure to obey, unlawful speed, drivers license not carried, violation of municipal speed limit and knowingly driving whilst suspended.

4. The most damaging allegations against Newton were those that came to light early in November and surrounded his father, Cecil Newton Sr. and his demanding of money from Mississippi State for Cam to sign there after leaving Blinn Community College. John Bond, an ex MSU QB said he was approached by a former teammate on behalf of Cam’s father, asking for $180,000 in exchange for sending his son there. There was a lot of intrigue surrounding Cecil Newton’s church, the Holy Zion Centre of Deliverance which has struggled to keep the city from condemning it due to the extensive repairs needed. The NCAA closely examined how Cam ended up at Auburn but ruled that he had no knowledge of any improper payments being made on his behalf and ruled him eligible to play. What’s interesting about this is the role of Dan Mullen, the MSU coach. I tried unsuccessfully to discover whether Cam’s brother, Cecil Jr. who plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars, was recruited by Mullen when he was at Utah in 2003-4. But what I do know is that when Cam himself was a high school junior in 2005, Mullen was integral in recruiting him to Florida. During that initial recruitment process, Cam’s father was quoted as saying: “Dan Mullen is a good friend of mine". It was a line that came up again when Newton was being recruited by the Bulldogs on leaving Blinn. On that occasion his choice was narrowed to three schools, MSU, Auburn and Oklahoma and Cecil was again quoted discussing his admiration for Mullen who was now HC at Mississippi State: “We are fond of Dan and Cameron is fond of Dan. Dan is fond of Cam. That may have the makings of a good marriage.” The abiding question for me is that is if the relationship between Mullen and Cam Newton was as strong as has been reported on both sides – Mullen’s wife and Cam were friends – why didn’t he go to MSU? It’s a question Mullen himself was asked himself on Rivals radio and the response was a fascinating insight: “That’s a long, long story. That’ll be in the book.”

So those are the FACTS as we know them. It’s not pretty, but it’s a long way from murder one. You can look at it two ways; a number of dumb mistakes that you could put down to youth. Or a sign of a recalcitrant who thinks he’s bigger than the law. My job isn’t to come up with some great piece of agitprop to sway you either way. You’ll make your own minds up, as will the Dolphins. I tend to favour the mistakes of youth. But if I’m Stu Weinstein and Jeff Ireland then I’m asking a whole lot of questions and I’m expecting some pretty good answers. When researching players from four conferences for this draft – ACC, SEC, MAC and WAC - I looked into the backgrounds of every draft eligible player who we believed could make a training camp. I found a myriad of hidden transgressions and law breaking far worse than anything Newton was accused of. In the end I suppose it’s the context of these things. We find the problems at University of Florida to be more damning than issues of Cecil Newton’s demanding pay-for-play from Mississippi State. The issues he had as an 18 to 19 year old in Gainesville, a town with which I am very familiar, speak of immaturity and a sense of entitlement. Maturation is a different process for every person. I personally have known 17 to 18 year olds caught stealing, that have matured and attended some of the finest undergraduate and graduate schools in the United States, going on to become very successful professionals. That is not something I am making up. On the other hand, I personally have known people that have gotten into trouble with the law at the age Newton did, that have continued getting into trouble with the law 10+ years later. What is important is whether or not Cam Newton has established a recent pattern of clean living that suggests that he has matured. While we are not in position to know this for a fact, we do see indications that Cameron has grown beyond some of his early troubles.

In that video, you won’t find the Cam Newton that steals laptops or tries to get an easy ‘A’ on a term paper. You’ll find the Cam Newton that reached out to a local elementary school before the season to try and mentor kids and be a positive influence in their lives. Note how Principal Lynda Tremane took it as a given that during the football season Cam would be too busy between football and academics to continue his visits with the kids, only to find Cameron insisting on making time every week to show up. Watching Cam Newton pull his little brother from the stands onto the field, the two of them marching around the field together after Cam won the SEC Championship Game, one can easily believe his statement in the video that his little brother is a big reason he sought out the opportunity to help children.

So what of the hyperbole? Again, Weinstein as team security investigator and Ireland as GM will need to find their way through the smoke. I spent 48 hours going back to his freshman campaign in high school digging for information and answers to the following questions:

• Work ethic – how hard does he work?
• Does he want it enough? He’s won everywhere he’s been, what motivates him?
• How mature is he? Off field issues notwithstanding, what sort of character does he possess?
• What do his team-mates, coaches and those who have been around him think?
• Role of Team Newton and father’s influence?

Work ethic

This is one of the biggest questions surrounding Newton – how hard does he work? Well, all we see is effusive praise for his ability to knuckle down and do what it takes to be the best. As a high school junior entering the last phase of the recruitment process, Cam was rarely able to attend combines at schools of interest because he would spend all of his free time working out and watching tape. As he headed to his senior campaign and his high school had a shot at the state title, Newton arranged every weekend of the summer for his offense to work out for hours each day honing routes, increasing fitness, repping plays again and again so that the timing was down. Newton himself in an interview with Scout.com had this to say: “We've been having meetings to learn the playbook, workouts, watching film, all the extra things. Now that practice has started, our seniors are all coming to practice early and leaving late. We're trying to set the example of hard work and dedication for the young guys to follow.” Despite the unfortunate circumstances behind his departure from Florida, Newton, upon signing with the Gators highlighted one of the main reasons why he signed their LOI: “What separates Meyer from the other coaches is the way he pushes players to their limits yet encouraging them all the way. I love that.”

At Blinn, coaches raved about the way that Newton spent time with his receivers, helping them to learn to adjust their routes when a blitz is coming, teaching them to recognize hot routes when they see certain coverage’s and helping them learn the audibles. During his year with Auburn, I’ve been told that Newton was one of the first in and last to leave the weight and film rooms and was constantly trying to learn to become better. That shows on field as his game by game improvement was spectacular. Newton also talked at length about how meticulous he plans for each game watching not only film of opponents, but also of himself and of NFL and college passers he admires such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck: “I search other quarterbacks for clues, for pieces I can make my own. If I feel there's a trait that I don't have in my game, I'm going to try to take it from another quarterback that I saw and apply it to me.”

But perhaps the most interesting comment on his work ethic comes from his LT Lee Ziemba who said that during winter workouts Newton so impressed his offensive teammates in the weight room that they named him – a QB - to a five-man tug-of-war team to take on the defense. The offense won. Ziemba went on to say that: “Players put a great deal of stock in how hard a teammate works when there's no coach forcing him to do it. But Cam was out there in the rain, throwing passes on the weekend when we were at the lake. He was dragging receivers out there with him. That kind of work ethic prepared our guys to follow him."

Does he want it?

We’ve often thought that Newton’s remarkable success might be his ultimate downfall. When you were as good as he was in high school, when you’re part of a National Championship team at Florida, when you win the JUCO Championship at Blinn and then the National Championship and the Heisman at Auburn, what’s your motivation to continue to push yourself? Especially with all the money that comes with being a high pick. However, the notes on his work ethic have allayed some of those fears. But also they’ve been allayed by some of the other things we’ve discovered about him. He wears rubber bands on his wrist to remind him to forget the last play and focus in on the next one. Any time he throws an incomplete pass or a play doesn't turn out quite the way he anticipated, he pops those rubber bands on his wrist. That little pop snaps him back into reality, letting him know that the only thing he can control is his demeanour for the next play. I like that. I like the fact that he wants to improve and won’t let anything get on top of him.

The way he performed week after week in 2010 despite all the off field issues only highlighted that further. His will to win, to overcome, was great. Newton wants to be a leader. He’s been a leader all the way through his career and it’s something he thrives upon. If he is drafted by the Dolphins then he’ll want to work for that mantle immediately. Back at the 2006 Friday Night Lights Combine in Gainesville he talked about how disciplined he was as a leader it’s a mantra that’s stayed with him ever since: “Discipline is what separates good players from great players and good teams from great teams. You have to be disciplined. That's where it all starts. You can't take a day off. You can't even take a play off. As a leader, your team looks to you to have your head in the game on every play. As a team, you can have all the talent in the world but if you aren't disciplined, you won't win and winning is the only thing that really counts.” As a high profile recruit to Auburn he could easily have been lured by the life of the athlete that we know only too well.

But not Newton: “My whole focus on going to Auburn was not the glitz and the glamour. Not the parties. I wanted to talk football, go to practice. From day one I wanted to go somewhere where I was competing to be the man, training myself mentally, physically, and every way to be the best so come game time it’s no secret the success is brought upon by hard work.”

Maturity

I don’t think anyone will be shocked to hear that on occasion, a teenage boy had some question marks over maturity as he worked through high school and into the early years of his college education. But it seems as though leaving Florida and arriving in rural Texas at Blinn was something of a wake up call for Newton: “Going to junior college was a humbling experience for me being that I was at Florida, one of the top programs in the nation. Taking a step down was an eye-opening experience that really had me swallowing my pride.” Since that point it seems as though maturity hasn’t really been an issue with him.

In an email to Ralph Morrow the sports editor of Florida Keys.com, Gena Parsons who was the Sports Information Director at Blinn during Newton’s time there had this to say about him: “I had worked with Cam all season and came to know him pretty well. He was certainly confident (not arrogant) when he arrived in Brenham, Texas. The talent potential was always there. What Cam lacked was maturity. The coaches worked tirelessly with him to teach him how to not only be a great athlete, but to be a true leader. Cam was a handful. There's no doubt about that. Channeling all that energy was key and our Blinn coaches truly miss him now. His work ethic was tremendous and his positive attitude never wavered. Cam was as successful off the field as he was on it. People loved being around him. Coach Franchione's kids still want to know when Cam is coming back to Blinn. His son Wyatt, 7, took Cam to school for show and tell. And daughter Isabella, 4, admires him so much that she called him her boyfriend. Imagine that hulking football player being gentle and playful with those little kids. It was a sight. That infectious smile you see at the conclusion of every game is genuine. In my three decades of working in the media and in public relations, I've dealt with countless athletes and I can honestly say none compare to Cam Newton. This is a young man who readily admits his lack of judgment in the computer incident (at Florida) and who humbly asked for a second chance.”

Peers

For a rookie QB to come in and try and take over a team is difficult enough - Chad Henne has struggled at times with the responsibility that comes with that, especially amongst battle hardened NFL vets – but for Newton, with all the perceptions about his baggage, it will be another challenge altogether. But everywhere he’s been, his peers have adored him. It’s rare to hear so much praise from so many quarters.

Coming into an offense with so much senior leadership as there was at Auburn may have been a difficult task, but as Newton’s LT Lee Ziemba explained, he took to it like a fish to water: "You're trying to figure someone out when you first meet him. Every little thing they do is critiqued. As soon as he got here, it took him no time at all to become one of us." As for how he deals with teammates as a team leader, Newton had this insight: “My team-mates look to me and they need to see a confident leader that has his head straight. If one of my linemen misses a block I've got to be firm but supportive with him. I let him know that we're depending on him to get his job done and I try to encourage him. If he needs more than that, I take him aside when we're on the sideline and then I let him have it but always with some encouragement.

The last thing you want is for someone to be on your bad side. Quarterbacks end up with broken legs because they chewed out a lineman in front of all his team-mates." Somehow I can’t imagine Brandon Marshall calling out Newton on the sidelines the way he did Henne.

Team Newton

This might be the biggest issue of all that teams like the Dolphins will have to deal with; the business side of things. Most observes liked the way the media opportunity was used last week when Newton threw for the cameras. Cecil Newton Sr. is of course the head of Team Newton and his situation with regards his son is chequered and it will turn some teams off. For others they will see it as simply part of the business. But those who have dealt with Cecil Newton have always described him as a man who cares greatly about his son’s future, well before any lines were crossed in terms of alleged financial inducements.

Eric Johnson, a former assistant football coach at Westlake High School, Cam’s alma mater, recalled that Cecil “was very involved in his son’s football career, but he was not pushy.” In the initial recruitment process of 2006, Cecil used to watch hours and hours of college football so as to make himself au fait with offensive systems to see which style would suit his sons skill set best: “I want to see the systems. That will tell us the run/pass ratio, the offensive sets and some philosophical things that the offensive coordinator can and will do against different teams."

One of the business sides of Team Newton that has always stood out for me during the research is that Cecil continued to refer to Cam as his “advisor”. If it was my son he’d be “my son whom I’m advising.” Maybe that’s just us. The reason we’re not uncomfortable with Cecil’s presence in Cam’s life is because we firmly believe that the NFL deals with 100 Cecil Newtons every year. At this level, they call them agents, and they always advise on behalf of their clients’ financial benefit (often to a team’s chagrin), and sometimes lead their clients down misguided paths. If an NFL team can’t handle a Cecil Newton, then I don’t know how that NFL team hopes to handle a Drew Rosenhaus, Eugene Parker, Marvin Demoff or Leigh Steinberg.

The background issues may have split teams as the college season progressed and the revelations came out. But I think teams will be very impressed when they investigate what are misconceptions and falsehoods about his background. Take this quote from Tim Jordan who played at Savannah State alongside Cecil Newton in 1979 when asked about some of the smoke that surrounded the Newton’s: “To me, I just wonder if it’s a real story. Is it sour grapes?”

The Miami Dolphins will want to know whether or not Newton loves football and is willing to work hard in order to be a leader, and in order to be great. There have been no red flags or indications that Newton is willing to cut corners when it comes to football. At 6’6” and 250 lbs, with 6 percent body fat reported by the coach he’s hired to get him ready for his Combine and Pro Day, it is clear that this is a specimen that puts in hard time at the gym to be as strong and physically impressive as he is.

Yet for some reason, despite a host of Auburn players recounting a multitude of stories and doing everything they can to show that this is a player that works hard and has been a leader for them, there is a stigma with some critics that Cam just can’t shake. When a player is as physically gifted as Newton is, a lot of people assume he must not work very hard. They don’t have anything to base it on, but the assumption is there, to the point where even if slapped in the face with contrary evidence, they remain skeptical.

One thing you can trust, however, is that even if many fans remain skeptical about Cam’s work ethic despite testimony from those around him, NFL teams will not dismiss these eyewitness stories so roundly. If all of the players and coaches that have been around Newton have as glowing things to say about Newton’s attitude and work ethic as Lee Ziemba, Lynda Tremane and Gena Parsons, some fans may take a deaf ear, but teams like the Dolphins will pay attention.

Style (the myth of the ‘run-first’ quarterback)

Cam Newton has another stigma associated with him that he can’t seem to shake. Some people like to consider him a ‘run-first’ quarterback. They might use the term ‘running’ quarterback, or any number of designations meant to convey the point that Newton is one of a long line of option quarterbacks at the college level that were glorified running backs and lack the passing skills to compete at the next level.

Miami Dol-Fans have some not-so-pleasant experience with that kind of quarterback in Pat White, drafted in the 2nd round on the promise that he could serve as the lead man in the Dolphins’ Wildcat 2.0 attack, while simultaneously training on his passing skills to where he could compete for the right to be considered a true franchise starter. Those that are quick to label a player this way are often firm in belief that the odds are stacked against this kind of player because his instincts tell them to bail on the play too quickly. While they are adamant that this kind of player cannot succeed, they are often short on definitions or methodology for determining if a quarterback is run-first.

Rather than settle for their Potter Stewart-esque explanations (“I know it when I see it”), we at Universal Draft have chosen to rely on facts and figures, isolating details rather than buying vagaries. The natural and undeniable conclusion is that nobody should accuse Cameron Newton of being a ‘run-first’ quarterback, or a glorified running back, or anything of the kind. The fact of the matter is we have isolated every single snap (both pass and run) of Cam Newton’s over his final six games against Ole Miss, Chattanooga, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina and Oregon. What we found is that Newton only scrambled for yardage on a total of 15 of 169 pass snaps. The other 80 or so runs were called as run plays from the sidelines. The rate (just under 9%) at which Newton pulled down the ball and ran for yardage rather than continuing to try and pass the ball, was comparable with the rate at which Aaron Rodgers did the same (just under 8%) for the Green Bay Packers during the 2010 regular season, according to Pro Football Focus.

Of course, there’s more than that. Cynics may reply that a ‘run-first’ guy may still ultimately pass the ball but he is far too quick to give up on the pocket and begin scrambling around to try and make something happened. This would naturally mean that a large percentage of Newton’s throws came while scrambling around and making something happen. However, according to our research, only about 1 in 5 of Newton’s pass attempts during those final six games came under these conditions. Again according to Pro Football Focus, Aaron Rodgers threw a little over 1 in 5 of his pass attempts while ‘Under Pressure’.

The reality is that when Cam Newton was being recruited out of Westlake High School, he had to dispel scouts of the complete opposite notion, that he was just a pure pocket passer that didn’t use his feet to hurt teams. Here is a quote dated March 22nd, 2006 in a report about Newton’s recruiting prospects:

Some have labeled Newton as a pure pocket passer but he is quick to discard that assessment. “I used to just sit back in the pocket but now with defensive ends running 4.6 forty’s you have to be able to move around and make plays with your feet," he said. “Now, I consider myself a guy who can run and pass. I really like to sit back and throw the ball but if you give me some space I’ll tuck it and run.”

Consider another quote from a Recruiting Editor for TigerSportsDigest.com, dated May 2, 2006:
Newton, a 6-5, 220-pounder out of Atlanta (Ga.) Westlake, surprised nearly everyone in attendance when he posted a 4.51 in the 40-yard dash.

Everyone was well aware that he had a big league arm that could make all of the throws, but bringing his speed down from a 4.8 to a 4.5 makes him all the more dangerous when things break down in the pocket.

The fact that Newton had to go out of his way to dispel recruiters of the notion that he was just a pure pocket passer is not terribly shocking, if you’ve tracked what Newton did at Westlake High, where they ran the option “maybe twice a game” according to Cam back in 2006.

Additionally, if one were to study what Newton did at Blinn College, they would find a player that was not asked to run the ball as often as at Auburn. As Cecil Newton put it in discussing why they chose Blinn College, “He's going to get to take some snaps from under center out there at Blinn and the coaching staff there is well versed in a pro style scheme.”

Transition

A lot is made of the transition that Cam Newton will have to make in adapting to an NFL offense. It will be a significant jump for him. At Auburn, you could count the number of times per game he took a snap from under Center on one hand. There are, however, a number of myths floating around out there about what Newton did at Auburn versus what he will do in the NFL. A common criticism we see levied at Newton is that at Auburn he threw nothing but little screen passes and rollouts, and other passes that don’t translate at the next level. We take issue with this statement on two fronts. First, according to our research over the final six games of Newton’s, only about 1 in 4 of his pass attempts were screen passes or designed roll-outs. That is not an overly significant number of screens or roll-outs. The second issue is the notion that those passes do not translate at the next level. Some of those bubble screens require a good arm, as going from center of the hashes to the sideline requires you to throw the ball between 20 and 25 yards through the air, and in order for those plays to be effective the ball has to get there with velocity. All of those passes require pinpoint accuracy in order to achieve the desired run-after-catch results. Any delay due to an inaccurate ball results in very little gain, or perhaps even a loss on the play.

At the height of the Patriots success, Tom Brady made 6 or 7 of these throws a game. In the NFL, Cam will not quite throw those passes on 1 in 4 attempts, but he will throw them a significant amount, as the quick passing game and screen game constitutes a significant percentage of passes in today’s NFL. As for Newton’s lack of experience dropping back from under Center, we would note that in today’s rapidly changing NFL schemes, passers are taking more snaps than ever out of the shotgun. According to studies, most of today’s NFL quarterbacks took between 50 and 65% of their pass attempts out of the shotgun in 2010. Peyton Manning took 76% of his passes out of the gun.

Spread passing principles are more popular in today’s NFL than ever, and it is reflected in quarterback completion percentages and passer ratings, which are higher than ever. In 2002, only 4 quarterbacks achieved season-long passer ratings of 90+. That figure has gradually increased through the decade and in 2010, 13 passers achieved in accolade which had been reserved only for the best of the best in previous decades. Spread principles aren’t the only college phenomenon to have made their way into the NFL. Option and zone-read principles have also hit the NFL, most notably in 2008 when the Miami Dolphins unveiled the Wildcat.

When it comes to the transition a typical rookie quarterback out of the spread-option will make at the next level, versus the transition Cam Newton will have to make, it would be well to keep in mind that whichever team drafts Cam Newton will in all likelihood adapt their playbook to include a certain amount of the things Newton did at Auburn, because he was such an unstoppable force in that offense.

Experience (or lack thereof)

Two years ago, you might have found me, Chris, railing on Mark Sanchez for his lack of experience. Sanchez only had 16 college starts by the time he entered the NFL Draft. Needless to say, it is not often I find myself endorsing a quarterback for the 1st round that has so few starts at the college level. Yet, I find myself less concerned about Cam Newton’s lack of experience. At least I’m not alone in this unfamiliar territory. Gil Brandt, who has seen quite a bit more of his share of NFL Drafts than I have, said during a phone interview, “I am not advocate of guys coming out of school early, but I think that if [Newton] does come out of school, I don’t think there’s any question he’ll be selected in the top half of the 1st round unless there is something physically wrong with him.” During that same interview, Brandt would continue to note that “When a guy gets to around 30 games in college, that usually is when the light turns on,” and yet despite Newton’s inexperience, he declared that, “There is no question he is physically ready.” He also stated that “the sky is the limit for that kid.”

What is so different? How do I criticize Mark Sanchez’ lack of experience, while accepting Newton’s? For me, lack of experience boils down to three concerns, or rather three questions that need adequate answers: 1) Why did coaches keep this player on the bench for so long?, 2) Does he have experience with tough situations that he can draw on when facing adversity at the next level?, and 3) Could he be a one-year statistical wonder? In answer to the first, Newton sat the bench at Florida behind Tim Tebow, widely regarded as one of the greatest college players to ever play the game.

I was in Gainesville for most weekends during Tebow’s entire ‘reign’ at Florida. He was a local deity, and Urban Meyer adored him. The NFL adores him as well, having drafted him in the 1st round despite his obvious shortcomings, and if he has any amount of success with the Denver Broncos there are advertising executives that believe Tebow will easily lead the league in endorsements. Mark Sanchez sat the bench behind the great John David Booty. No offense to Mr. Booty, but his NFL prospects are slim, and I don’t think he had the same following among local fans, media and coaches as Tim Tebow did.

Even Cecil Newton recognized the reality of having to compete with a Tim Tebow when he said in 2006, “I know how college football works. You don’t just show up and unseat a Matthew Stafford or a Tim Tebow. It’s just not likely to happen. You have to wait your turn like D.J. Shockley did with David Greene.”

In answer to the second, I believe that Cam Newton has more experience to draw on when it comes to battling through adversity than most quarterbacks entering the NFL Draft with a full four years of experience. Newton did not breeze through his games against SEC opponents the way Mark Sanchez and the USC Trojans tended to breeze their way through games against the PAC-10.

Newton and the Auburn War Eagles were continually hit in the mouth to start games out. They battled back from large deficits against tough opponents like Alabama. They fought with Oregon tooth and nail for the National Championship. They trailed in 9 of their 14 games this season, and won all of them. One of the games that disturbed me most about Sanchez’ tenure with the Trojans was the game they played at Oregon State. The Beavers hit the Trojans hard in the mouth and built up a lead. The Trojan offense could not get anything done, but the Trojan defense kept the game from getting away from them. But with USC trailing by only one touchdown halfway through the 4th quarter, Sanchez’ body language both on the field and on the sidelines was poor, his passes were sailing high, and he ultimately threw the interception with less than 3 minutes remaining that sealed the victory for Oregon State.

I hated to place so much importance on one game, but that was the reality of such a lack of experience on a team that generally breezed its way against inferior opponents. Though Mark Sanchez in his young career has a reputation for making plays when it counts, due for the most part to his team’s playoff success, I would note that in his young career he has an abysmal 46.4 passer rating in the 4th quarter, and there have been times in both seasons when his lack of maturity and experience showed as he would get into long-lasting emotional funks.

As for answering the final concern, that of his being a statistical one-season wonder, one can only address this concern through a close examination of the player’s talent.

Talent

When it comes to the talent that Cam Newton possesses, we can barely tell where to start. Where we choose to start is with the facet of a quarterback’s game that most scouts will tell you is the most important when it comes to translating to the NFL, and that is accuracy. It isn’t just defined by a quarterback’s ability to throw a ball the same way and hit the same target in the same spot consistently, though that helps. If you want that, try looking up the Connecticut Huskies’ 4th string quarterback Johnny McEntee’s trick shot video on YouTube some time, and then draft him in the 1st round.

Pro accuracy is the ability to see a moving target on the field at great distances, to figure out where the ball needs to be thrown, and to consistently be able to time and execute that throw. In reality, accuracy does not stand on its own. It is useless to talk about accuracy without also talking about velocity, distance, throw selection, and timing. The throw doesn’t just have to finish its air travel at a certain place. If it’s not timed correctly, it looks like the quarterback can’t hit the broad side of a barn. And if it doesn’t have the right touch, it’s not catchable, and looks like a bad decision on the part of the passer. And if a player’s throws do not cover a great distance, the accuracy means nothing, because anyone can hit a bull’s eye from 5 yards.

At Universal Draft, we have prided ourselves in bringing our scouting to your eyes, through the use of video clips. We recognize that NFL scouts are not the keepers of some extraordinary and exclusive power to look at players and identify their skill sets. In doing our research on Cam Newton, we have created a number of videos detailing Cam Newton’s ability to throw a football at distance, with touch and accuracy.

The first video shows one of Cam Newton’s finest strengths, which is his ability to show accuracy, timing and touch at large distances on the deep ball. In the video you’ll find 22 of Newton’s throws over the final six games of his season. He completed half of these deep throws, which is in itself a highly impressive figure. What is more impressive about it is there were 4 drops by Darvin Adams and Mario Fannin among the 11 incomplete pass attempts, as well as 2 passes that were placed well but caught by receivers who could not keep their feet in-bounds, and one more pass that was placed well but featured un-flagged Defensive Pass Interference.

That means that over 80% of his deep pass attempts were thrown catchable. I don’t care what kind of mechanics you are working with, that is impressive accuracy on the deep ball. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that only on a couple of those throws did I find he used his feet, hips and shoulders properly. He rarely points his lead toe toward his target, or gets over his front leg. His shoulder aiming is only adequate. If you want to find a player that uses perfect mechanics to attain excellent accuracy on the deep ball, see T.J. Yates of North Carolina. If you want to find a player that gets the same accuracy most of the same touch and placement without even close to as consistent mechanics, see Cam Newton.

His feet are not slow in the pocket, but they are not quick either. He has not been helped much on this by scheme or by his length. He takes his shotgun snaps with his shoulders and feet too square to the line of scrimmage, due to his function as a dual threat in the offensive scheme. This can lead to him dropping his back foot as his plant foot, and then turning his head at times along with his back shoulder as he throws. His mechanics improved significantly as the season went on, which goes to show you that footwork is a lot easier to fix in a quarterback than his release.

Speaking of release, there is nothing wrong with his. His release is a strength because of how quick and versatile he has shown it to be, to where he is able to throw the ball from odd leverage and from different platforms. In past interviews, he has shown that he understands that some throws need to come off at different angles without a proper step through and weight transference, he just needs to work on doing that more consistently on those occasions when it would be more appropriate.

Dan Marino once said that if he were to evaluate a quarterback the first thing he would ask him to do is throw off his back foot 100 times in practice, because an NFL pocket is regularly a cluttered mess where proper foot mechanics become impossible and often undesirable. Newton’s delivery is a naturally wristy one, but hasn’t shown to be a problem for him. He possesses very large hands that grip the football easily and give him great control through the delivery’s finish. The ball comes off hot with good spin. These large hands also give him great control of the ball in his fake and hand-off mechanics. He is able to execute pump fakes regularly and without risk. His large hands also help him keep hold of the football while being sacked, and you’ll notice that he only lost two fumbles all year, both on plays where he was carrying the ball up the field.

His tremendous height, quick feet, even quicker release, and high release point all give him exceptional potential to use the middle of the field on crossing routes, as he should have no problems finding his passing lanes. I found only one pass of his during the six games that was batted by a defensive lineman. To contrast, statistically speaking, Chad Henne would have had four or five passes batted at the line over the same number of attempts.

His ball location on short and deep passes is not perfect, but his overall throwing skills are the best and most versatile in the Draft. His location is better on the occasions when he is able to point his toe and step into his throws better. His sense of timing is not nearly as bad as some people believe and is actually a positive for Cam. He has the patience to allow a route to develop and the timing to get the ball off at the right moment to hit a man in stride as he breaks into the holes between zones. He also is able to time his pump fakes effectively. He was not asked to throw very many passes with anticipation of the receiver’s break, but the ones he threw had decent timing. He shows the ability to be a rhythm passer, especially if working in an offense that does not require of him the same things from a run perspective that the Auburn offense required.

One area of Newton’s game we find to be underrated is his ability to break off his Plan A and Plan B in order to hit his Plan C quickly before the defense could possibly guess at his intentions. This makes him very hard to defend. He knows where everyone on the field is supposed to be at all times according to the play design, and is able to process information and pull the trigger quickly on a forgotten check down option.

This was a quality that Phil Rivers regularly put on display at North Carolina State. His confidence in his timing and mental picture of field and its players is what allows him to use his eyes effectively to deceive defenses. He has talked about in interviews before how he understands that due to pre-snap reads he might have a clear idea of where he will end up going with the ball on some plays, but he has the confidence to be patient and use his eyes before he gets there.

Contrary to popular belief, film study, knowledge of defenses, knowledge of your play designs, and pre-snap reads can give you a pretty clear pre-snap picture of where you ultimately want to end up with the ball at the NFL level on a large percentage of plays. There are those writing for and following the New England Patriots that believe that the majority of Tom Brady’s pass targets are known to him before the snap.

As for his handling of pressure from the pocket, long time defensive coach Bill Oliver, a man that has faced his share of Heisman trophy winners, was correct in his accounting of Newton as a guy that has “eyes that can see 360 degrees”. Cam’s ability to sense pressure from the pocket and step up or around it is special. As noted before, he keeps his eyes up the field while scrambling, looking for the most dangerous passing option. He only ran on 15 of his 169 pass snaps during the six games put on video.

I find no reason to hide from the fact that Cam Newton’s athleticism, physicality and ball carrying skills will be a tremendous asset on the football field. I have long been skeptical about the mythical existence of the perfect Wildcat QB that could take the elementary version of the Wildcat that the Dolphins unveiled in 2008, and move it into the infamous Wildcat 2.0 territory as Pat White was supposed to do. In thinking about the job description of this Wildcat 2.0 QB, I found that the skills necessary would be impossible achieve. In order to run the ball effectively, the player would theoretically have to be as compelling running the ball as Ronnie Brown, who was a Pro Bowl caliber player in 2008. He would have to be big, powerful and fast, so that he could gain tough yards as well as easy ones, and hold up to NFL defenses (and not get knocked out by 200 lbs cornerbacks). At the same time, executing Wildcat throws is all about making very quick and safe decisions under pressure, throwing the ball with tremendous accuracy, often deep, while on the run, from bad leverage and without proper footwork. Even Pro Bowl quarterbacks can’t be relied upon to do this consistently. When I envisioned this hypothetical, impossible player, I did not know about Newton’s unique skill set, and yet I could have been describing Newton a year in advance of his lighting the NCAA on fire.

His strength and physicality jump out at you immediately. Those runs against South Carolina and Oregon where he was able to bull for the extra yardage to hit the first down marker or the goal line are as impressive as I’ve seen from a Pro Bowl runner. He may be the strongest quarterback that I have seen at any level of football. He clearly is not afraid to block on end-around plays, and has been seen pushing the pile forward on hand-offs to Michael Dyer, after it appeared Dyer had been stopped. His speed is deceptive. He is able to create angles that you did not think were there. He did exactly that on the touchdown run against Georgia which is featured in the above video clip. He also did it to cornerback Patrick Peterson of LSU on a run that was not featured in my video clips. He shows the ability to give a limp leg and to lean his body to where defenders don’t get clean shots at him. Though I have not featured these many of these runs in the above video clips, he has also shown the ability to decide when it is ok to finish the run, and when it is better as a quarterback whose health is vital to the team, to slide or go to the ground without finishing the run. As I have said before, his ability to process information quickly is impressive.

He appears to have no trouble commanding players in the huddle and his on-field demeanor has never been questionable in any game that I have seen, even the ones where defenses were clearly overwhelming him at times, such as the first half against Alabama. He kept his cool demeanor, adapted, and led his team to victory. He was not asked to make audibles at the line of scrimmage, but that is a feature of Gus Malzahn’s offense that will likely follow Malzahn wherever he goes, no matter who is his quarterback. I could be wrong but I believe in previous offenses Malzahn left his running backs with the responsibility of communicating the play adjustment to the offensive linemen. In Auburn’s offense, he had Newton do this.

Conclusion

Due to our extensive research and subsequent high opinion of Cam Newton’s talent level, our belief that his mechanical issues are of the easy-to-sort-out variety, our belief that his poor decision-making off the field is most likely behind him, and our belief that Newton has exceptional work ethic and is very coachable, we believe that Cam Newton could and probably should go #1 overall to the Carolina Panthers. However, this is a strange process, and the looming CBA negotiations may figure into what happens on Draft day in some unforeseen way. Newton would not have to fall very far in order for him to be legitimately acquirable by the Miami Dolphins in a trade.

We believe that Newton’s pure talent is unique and does not come along but perhaps once in a decade. If he were a three-year starter with a spotless character history, we believe he would be accounted along with Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer as among the elite prospects to have come out at the position in the last 15 years. We do not believe he is that kind of prospect, because there is something to be said for his character questions and lack of experience, but nonetheless we have seen far worse quarterback prospects get selected in the top 5 of the NFL Draft, and we believe he should have a spot in that area of the 2011 NFL Draft. And if the Miami Dolphins want to secure their QB position for the next decade, then there should be some serious investigations into what it would take to get up to select him if Carolina passes.

[Godfather]

While as a Dolphin fan I would love for us to get Cam.

#1 I just don't see it happening, I don't see anyway regardless of the article, how we could trade up for him.

#2 While the Phins need a QB in a bad way, there are so many other issues that need to be addressed, and I want Cam to succeed. I don't know if he can do that in a Dolphin uniform.

[Saniflush]

While as a Dolphin fan I would love for us to get Cam.

#1 I just don't see it happening, I don't see anyway regardless of the article, how we could trade up for him.

#2 While the Phins need a QB in a bad way, there are so many other issues that need to be addressed, and I want Cam to succeed. I don't know if he can do that in a Dolphin uniform.

I think the phins would be one of the best situation he could hope for long term.  I think they really want to win there and the ownership from what little I look at it seems committed to doing what it takes.
No?

[Snaggletiger]

I didn't read it.  Did it say Cam is a bad ass?

[Kaos]

Damn that was long. 

I stoppped reading when he listed the bullshit cheating allegations (denied by anyone and everyone with any authority at Florida) and then said he'd listed the FACTS. 

Gross misrepresentations are not fact. 

[Godfather]

I think the phins would be one of the best situation he could hope for long term.  I think they really want to win there and the ownership from what little I look at it seems committed to doing what it takes.
No?

I don't fucking know, to me it seems like we have the best intentions but constantly shoot ourselves in the foot.  I think the team has been mismanaged by the front office since Jimmy Johnson's hiring (which never should have happened).  Even though the Phins have new owners since then, I question the decision making.  It doesn't seem to be getting any better.  They can throw all the money in the world at it, but if they don't get someone who knows what the fuck they are doing forget it.

FYI the Dolphins have not drafted a first round quarterback since Dan Marino.

This is the way I view the NFL...from a talent evaluation standpoint it is almost like basketball, either NBA or college.  You figure there are 7 rounds in the draft.  Assuming your team has no other draft picks.  If you are a great recognizer of talent you might get 4 round players that are going to be on the team.  For the most part, players after round 4 end up not making the team or on the practice squad.  So you have to continuously hit draft after draft.  Johnson even though he shouldn't have been the coach was a great recognizer of talent.  Looking back Wannstadt to his credit was not horrible, however he wasm't great and he was a horrible game coach.  Sabans guys sucked, Cam Cameron...holy fuck Ted Ginn #9 in the fist round, seriously set us back years.  When the Tuna came in my hopes were up, but hes gone now, so who the fuck knows.

[Saniflush]

I didn't read it.  Did it say Cam is a bad ass?

Essentially.

[wesfau2]

What was the off-field issue with Ronnie Brown?

[Kaos]

I keep imagining Cam in an NFL uniform and none of them seem right.  He's not going to look right in any of them. 

From a sheer visual standpoint I can't envision him in anything other than a Bears, Patriots or Cowboys uniform and none of that is going to happen. 

I don't want him to play in the NFL.  He won't look right.

[Saniflush]

What was the off-field issue with Ronnie Brown?

Only thing I was aware of was a DUI stop here in Atlanta a while back.

[AWK]

Only thing I was aware of was a DUI stop here in Atlanta a while back.

That's it.

[Snaggletiger]

Only thing I was aware of was a DUI stop here in Atlanta a while back.

Not to get off track but damn, if you're a multi skwazillionaire and you want to drink....I inmagine there are plenty of limo/cab/escort/mass transit companies that will gladly drive your pimp ass around for $34.95.

Okay, back to Cam

[War Eagle!!!]

Not to get off track but damn, if you're a multi skwazillionaire and you want to drink....I inmagine there are plenty of limo/cab/escort/mass transit companies that will gladly drive your pimp ass around for $34.95.

Okay, back to Cam

They don't have to pay for shit. The NFL provides a service 24/7 365 for any NFL player that will basically pick you up from any where and take you where ever you want to go for free.

[AWK]

They don't have to pay for shit. The NFL provides a service 24/7 365 for any NFL player that will basically pick you up from any where and take you where ever you want to go for free.

It's called Yellowcab and it's amazing.

[Saniflush]

Not to get off track but damn, if you're a multi skwazillionaire and you want to drink....I inmagine there are plenty of limo/cab/escort/mass transit companies that will gladly drive your pimp ass around for $34.95.

Okay, back to Cam

Maybe some of you lieyers can shed some light on it but the general feeling around here was that it was not a legitimate stop by the cop.  Never heard what came of it.  I know it had a couple of continuances.

[Godfather]

It's called Yellowcab and it's amazing.

No, its called your fuckin entourage.  Uhh tell one of them..."Hey Bootsie, I pay you to hang out with me, you aren't drinking tonight."

[Snaggletiger]

Hate to say I must have been under a rock at that time but I never heard about the stop. 

[Saniflush]

Hate to say I must have been under a rock at that time but I never heard about the stop.

Yea, see I think you were still kicking the vagina outfit around here about that time.

[Godfather]

Yea, see I think you were still kicking the vagina outfit around here about that time.

Actually he might have still been in witness protection.

[Snaggletiger]

Yea, see I think you were still kicking the vagina outfit around here about that time.

That thing was hot.  No really, that outfit was a bitch in the summer.  And itchy.