Scarbinsky: Auburn won't disappear in 2011

[AUChizad]

Scarb pretty much expresses exactly how I feel 2011 will look.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/01/scarbinsky_auburn_wont_disappe.html

Scarbinsky: Auburn won't disappear in 2011
Published: Sunday, January 16, 2011, 5:16 AM     Updated: Sunday, January 16, 2011, 5:17 AM
  By Kevin Scarbinsky, Birmingham News

How good will Mike Dyer be as a sophomore? (The Birmingham News / Hal Yeager)
Really, Andre Ware?

Do you really believe that Auburn is going to follow 14-0 with 5-7 or 4-8?

That Cam Newton and Nick Fairley were so good that, without them, the rest of the Tigers will be just plain bad?

That Auburn will become the first team in the BCS era to follow a national championship with a losing season?

That was Ware's bold prediction Friday on ESPN's College Football Live. With all due respect to the former Heisman winner, he's only half-wrong.

Gene Chizik's Tigers will drop off in 2011. They will not fall off the face of the earth.

There's too much returning and arriving talent on the team's sideline, among the players and coaches, and too much history on the program's side to indicate that kind of free-fall is on the way. A slide is inevitable, but it should be more like a bumpy glide through your back yard during Winter Storm 2011 than a tumble from the South Rim of the Grand Canyon.

Part of the reason a repeat is out of the question is that Newton and Fairley were special players, as were the four senior offensive linemen and veteran defenders from Mike Blanc to Josh Bynes to Zac Etheridge.

Beyond the infantry Auburn loses, consider the company Auburn keeps. This is the SEC, where teams don't follow championship seasons with championship seasons. The rest of the league won't let them.

SEC teams may have dominated the BCS since its inception, with five different schools winning seven titles overall, the last five in a row, but there's a downside to that competitive balance and excellence.

No team has won back-to-back conference titles since Tennessee in 1997 and 1998. Of the SEC's six previous BCS champions, only two of them came back the next season to reach a BCS bowl.
Tennessee did it in 1998 and 1999, Florida in 2008 and 2009.

But that 2008 Florida team is the SEC's only BCS champion that didn't have a worse record the year after. The Gators followed their 13-1 national title in 2008 with a 13-1 finish in 2009, but it was the wrong one. The loss came to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Of the SEC's six previous BCS champions, only Florida 2008 and Alabama 2009 came back to win at least 10 games the next year. The Tide still dropped off by four victories, which is the norm.

Five of the SEC's first six BCS champions won four fewer games the year after: Tennessee 1998 (13-0 to 9-3); LSU 2003 (13-1 to 9-3); Florida 2006 (13-1 to 9-4); LSU 2007 (12-2 to 8-5); and Alabama 2009 (14-0 to 10-3).

There was a common denominator for three of those five drop-offs that now stares Auburn in the face. Except for Tennessee and Alabama, those defending champions had to replace their starting quarterbacks.

Barrett Trotter, the presumed Auburn starter in 2011, won't be as good as Newton - no one in major college football history has been for a single season - but he has a chance to be better than most outsiders expect.

So does Auburn because the rest of the usual suspects in the SEC West also find themselves in a state of flux at the most important position on the field. The top four finishers in the toughest division college football's ever seen could have new starting quarterbacks next season.

Auburn will have the most difficult assignment in replacing Newton, but Alabama loses Greg McElroy, Arkansas has seen the last of Ryan Mallett and juco arrival Zach Mettenberger will get a shot to beat out inconsistent Jordan Jefferson at LSU.

Elsewhere in the huddle, Auburn's set of skill players can match up with almost anyone else in the league. If the rebuilt offensive line can open some holes, Mike Dyer, Onterio McCalebb and friends will hit them. Gus Malzahn will see to that.

Ted Roof's defense won't dominate, but it didn't this season, except for the fourth quarter of tight games and all four quarters of the BCS Championship Game. Most of the time, with Malzahn's offense, Roof's defense doesn't have to dominate to help the team win.

Auburn's going to win more games than it loses in 2011 - the likely range is 7-5 to 9-3 - because that's what Auburn does. Look at just the recent history.

Since 1992, Auburn has had three undefeated seasons. Among Football Bowl Subdivision programs, only Nebraska can say the same, and its last one was 1997.

Auburn's three perfect seasons since the SEC split into divisions matches the rest of the conference combined. The Tigers ran the table in 1993, 2004 and 2010. Alabama did it in 1992 and 2009, and Tennessee was spotless in 1998.

Since 2000, Auburn has the 11th-best winning percentage in the FBS. That's just behind Florida and Georgia and just ahead of Oregon.

Moral of the story? Auburn takes football seriously, and far more often than not, is pretty good at it. The Tigers went from good to great in 2010. It would be a bigger shock in reverse if they went from great to gulp!

[Jumbo]

He nailed it, I feel the same way.

[djsimp]

And I as well. I would like to add, Andre Ware is a fuck face.

[JR4AU]

And I as well. I would like to add, Andre Ware is a fuck face.

Whatever.  Andre Ware says what his writers tell him to say.  Matters not to me.  Remember earlier this year, that moron Legend on Finebaum was calling Herbtreit a douchbag for predicting Auburn to win the West in the preseason...just saying. 

Scarbo breaks it down pretty good. 

[jmar]

He nailed it, I feel the same way.

Definitely the best overall sports writer in the Birmingham area that actually gets it. There are a few others that can report the happenings at Auburn, but none as talented as Kevin. He knows the state is flooded by Bama honks and he is the one guy that will deliver an orange and blue counter-punch that can rock the Bamers for a standing eight count.
Personally I think he is the best in the state and if Barbee ever gets the basketball program to a competitive level Scarbinsky will be all over it because hoops are his first love. Don't get me wrong. if Scarbo thinks Auburn has stepped in it, he will be hurtful, but as a Bama antagonist, he's your guy because all of the others will choose to resist the impending backlash.

[djsimp]

Whatever.  Andre Ware says what his writers tell him to say.  Matters not to me.  Remember earlier this year, that moron Legend on Finebaum was calling Herbtreit a douchbag for predicting Auburn to win the West in the preseason...just saying. 

Scarbo breaks it down pretty good.

Andre is still a fuck face.

[JR4AU]

Andre is still a fuck face.

Ok, but you know I'm right.

[djsimp]

Ok, but you know I'm right.

Yes, Scarbinsky is the only one so far who's thought process doesn't reek vaginal stench (that I can remember anyway). Those like Ware can continue to pass their judgment. I mean, its not like Auburn came into the 2010 season rolling of the tongues of everyones top 5 picks. The under-the-radar mentality works in favor of Auburn and I hope this continues to happen long enough for next years team gets some games under their belts and finds their niche.

[jmar]

Yes, Scarbinsky is the only one so far who's thought process doesn't reek vaginal stench (that I can remember anyway). Those like Ware can continue to pass their judgment. I mean, its not like Auburn came into the 2010 season rolling of the tongues of everyones top 5 picks. The under-the-radar mentality works in favor of Auburn and I hope this continues to happen long enough for next years team gets some games under their belts and finds their niche.

Actually what I want is for the media to all but write Auburn off.

Then I want the team to become the media darlings by showing up with a vengeance and proving them wrong as in "my, my how those young Tigers can play" or most likely " it must be the system."

Whatever takes place I think we can count on Chizik and Co. to finish strong ready for the following season hopefully within striking distance for another run.

But I would settle for a repeat in 2011 without all the drama.

Auburn?   Huh...they got nuthin',  they don't stand a chance...and I should know because I'm the Legendary Andre' Ware.

[No Huddle]

9-3 at the worst.

[CCTAU]

I don't want to be written off. I want to be in the top 15 at the beginning of the year. You never know how the ball may bounce. We may end up with another great season. Look at this year, where did we start out? People thought we were going to be sludge. We have two returning starters on the line, both tackles. We have some of the best talent in the nation coming back. Who replaced Bynes in Glendale when he got hurt, a freshman. Are we looking as bad as last season? Who knows. I will say like I did last year, 10+ wins. It all depends on how the ball bounces.

Most teams we will see early on will not be sure how to defend us. We will not have the same persona on offense, but that doesn't mean we wont; be good. If Trotter comes out with a great short to middle passing game, we end up it eh same place after 6 games as we did this year. The reason we made it through the first 6 unscathed this year was due to Cam's great running, but his inability to see the short field. Had he been able to throw short early, he would not have had to carry the team on his legs. If Trotter is like we have seen in A-day games and the like, we will do well. IMO Trotter is the key. He has a great first strike mentality. He looks deep first and then knows where the short men are. And he can hit the deep guy consistently. This within itself opens up a whole new game for us if he can continue this.

Sure we will have a different look, but it will still be a good look and with CGM, we know he will find the plays that we are best at and continue to develop the others as the season progresses. I am just as excited about next season as I was at the beginning of this one. Trotter is the guy CGM is used to coaching. I think we'll see a very potent offense again this season.

Defensively, we were not sitting around relying on the seniors the whole year. They were the backbone, but they allowed us to play A LOT of guys. D. McNeal played in the BCDNCG and Chris Davis would have. We have great talent coming up and they have gotten a lot of experience. I would put 11 or 12 in for Torched right now and be happy. So we have already upgraded in the secondary. LBs got a lot of work. Holland will come back bigger and stronger. And we played a lot of guys on the outside. Teh D line played a lot of guys and who knows which one may develop into another guy close to Fairly's talent.

We are sitting pretty, guys.

War Damn Eagle

[RWS]

It's hard to guess on it. I think, including specialists, you guys lose 22 guys off of the 2 deep. 11 on offense, 9 on defense, a punter and kicker. 8 of those 11 on offense are starters, and 7 of the 9 on defense are starters as well. And spring/fall camp hasn't even started or anything, so there will be injuries forthcoming at some point probably. This is where we find out how good those recruiting classes really are.

If AU can pull out a 9 or 10 win season in 2011, then that is one hell of a job by the staff. It's one thing to lose most of your starting defense, or to lose most of your starting offense; but to lose both at the end of one season is very very tough. Especially when you factor in that AU will also be breaking in a new QB whose name doesn't end in Tebow or Newton. I think a 7 win season will be about right. I just don't think you can have that much attrition and be a 10 win team in the SEC.

For that matter, Alabama is replacing alot less and I don't think we will make it to 10 wins this coming season either, unless something miraculous happens during the offseason.

[AUChizad]

I recall a resounding "expert opinion" that Auburn would be in deep shit because we were replacing Todd with an unknown.

Just sayin.

I'm fairly positive we will have a dropoff at QB next year, but I don't think it will be as dramatic as everyone thinks. And I think our net dropoff for the team as a whole will be even less. Young, but not dramatically less talented.

[JR4AU]

I recall a resounding "expert opinion" that Auburn would be in deep shit because we were replacing Todd with an unknown.

Just sayin.

I'm fairly positive we will have a dropoff at QB next year, but I don't think it will be as dramatic as everyone thinks. And I think our net dropoff for the team as a whole will be even less. Young, but not dramatically less talented.

Like all the folks that said during the season "Auburn would be 6-6 without Cam."  Well, they were actually looking at it from the standpoint of if Cam went down.  If Trotter had been the guy, gotten all the reps in fall camp, and played behind that OL...he probably wouldn't have been a Heisman candidate....but I doubt he would have sucked.  We'd have run the ball more with the RBs, and Dyer may have had 1500 yards.  The offense would have looked much as it did in 2009, but behind a more seasoned OL, and with a QB that is or will probably be at least as good as Todd was, and with an improved Defense.  Would we have won them all?  Probabably not, BUT even that's speculation...I mean Greg McElroy guided Da Tahd to a NC in his first season as a starter.   McElroy was no big time recruit coming out of So. Lake Carroll HS. 

[Saniflush]

I mean Greg McElroy guided Da Tahd to a NC in his first season as a starter.   McElroy was no big time recruit coming out of So. Lake Carroll HS.

You shut your dirty whorish mouth.  Gregory hasn't lost a game since I don't remember when. Of course he can't remember when either.

[Snaggletiger]

Sure there's going to be a drop off.  Replacing a record setting, Heisman winning, freak of an athlete that was also the unquestioned leader of the team and face of the program.

Yep, there'll be a drop off.  However, I tend to look at it like JR said. The O will look far more in 2011 as it did in 09'.  Trotter will be more like Todd but with a good bit more running ability, which is a key component of CGM's offense.  Had Todd been able to run even a little, it literally may have made a 2 game difference IMO. 

There's a part of me that's scared to death of having a Texas size debacle with all the changes but another part is excited as hell to see what all these young guys can do.

[GH2001]

Sure there's going to be a drop off.  Replacing a record setting, Heisman winning, freak of an athlete that was also the unquestioned leader of the team and face of the program.

Yep, there'll be a drop off.  However, I tend to look at it like JR said. The O will look far more in 2011 as it did in 09'.  Trotter will be more like Todd but with a good bit more running ability, which is a key component of CGM's offense.  Had Todd been able to run even a little, it literally may have made a 2 game difference IMO. 

There's a part of me that's scared to death of having a Texas size debacle with all the changes but another part is excited as hell to see what all these young guys can do.

The problem with Texas wasn't players....their staff had gotten complacent as evidenced by brown cleaning house. We don't have that issue.

[Snaggletiger]

The problem with Texas wasn't players....their staff had gotten complacent as evidenced by brown cleaning house. We don't have that issue.

On that subject...do you think it may be human nature to develop a bit of complacency on this staff?  No...not saying or insinuating they will go that route.  However, if you think about the last 2+ years and how this staff came in hungry, working that ass off, trying new and innovative recruiting techniques, pushing and pushing until they eventually reached the top and won it all...even as quickly as it may have happened.

How do you go into this upcoming season with that same fire?  Is it the challenge of, in one sense, starting over? 

[JR4AU]

The problem with Texas wasn't players....their staff had gotten complacent as evidenced by brown cleaning house. We don't have that issue.

^^^THIS! 

I'm guessing 2009 was Mack Brown's last good season, and the new staff is his last gasp for air.  Like all coaches in this era, he's hit that wall that they all normally hit around the 8-10 year mark.  Brown was lucky enough to have  great QB, or he'd have hit the wall then too...right after the NC and Young...as it is, it took him 12.

[JR4AU]

On that subject...do you think it may be human nature to develop a bit of complacency on this staff?  No...not saying or insinuating they will go that route.  However, if you think about the last 2+ years and how this staff came in hungry, working that ass off, trying new and innovative recruiting techniques, pushing and pushing until they eventually reached the top and won it all...even as quickly as it may have happened.

How do you go into this upcoming season with that same fire?  Is it the challenge of, in one sense, starting over?

Complacency is a huge issue.  The pressure of the job is just too great.  Look at all the coaches in the game now, and look at how many have drop offs.  Some worse than others, but they all get complacent.   Keeping asst. coaches around forever is a recipe for disaster.  Hire guys with fire in their belly, and move them up or out about every 3 years and you'll last longer.