Betting Preview

[Saniflush]

http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/bcs-betting-preview-why-auburn-beats-oregon-a-11704.html

BCS Betting Preview: Why Auburn beats Oregon

The final BCS rankings are in and there is little doubt the system got things right this season as the top two schools in the country, Auburn and Oregon, are set to play one another on January 10 in the Tostitos BCS National Championship Game.

Before the season began these two teams were not the most likely candidates to climb to the top two spots in the country. Auburn (13-0) opened as the fourth favorite to win the SEC West behind Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, and opened as high as 50/1 to win a national title. Oregon (12-0) was the odds-on-favorite to win the Pac-10 but opened at 20/1 to win the BCS.

Nonetheless, these two teams passed every test they faced and deserve to be in this game. The big question now is which team wins?

Most of the sports books have opened the Tigers as a three-point favorite with an ‘over/under’ line set at 74. Auburn minus three points is an early Christmas gift as this line should go nowhere but up over the next few weeks because based on statistics, strength of schedule and past trends it clearly has a significant edge in this game.

This matchup features the two most explosive offenses in college football that have primarily made their living running the ball. Auburn ended the season ranked sixth in the nation averaging 287.2 rushing yards per game while Oregon was even better, coming in fourth with 303.5 yards per game.

Much of the Tigers’ success can be attributed to having an extremely versatile quarterback in Cameron Newton, who threw for 2,589 yards and ran for a team-high 1,409 yards which also happened to be 10th best in country.

The Ducks counter with running back LaMichael James, who was ranked first in the nation in rushing with 1,682 yards. Diversity is the spice of life, so give the advantage in this category to Newton.

These are also two of the most prolific scoring teams in the country with Auburn averaging 42.7 points per game and Oregon averaging 49.3, so the key to this game will most likely be which team’s defense does the best job at slowing things down. Much has been made about the Tigers’ 52nd ranked defense that has given up an average of 354.5 total yards versus a Ducks defense that is ranked 27th overall, giving up an average of 327.8 total yards. One major fact to keep in mind is that Auburn’s run defense ended the season ranked ninth in the country, allowing 104 yards per game verse Oregon’s 19th ranked run defense that gave up 113.8 yards per game.

Auburn’s biggest advantage coming into this game is strength of schedule. Everyone already knows that the SEC is a much stronger conference than the Pac-10, but each team’s schedule clearly bears this out. The Tigers have already beaten three top-10 schools compared to Oregon’s one win over a top-10 team. While the Ducks’ are hanging their hat on their 52-31 win over Stanford, the Tigers have victories over Alabama, Arkansas, LSU and South Carolina (twice) on their resume.

Oregon’s biggest scare this season was a 15-13 win over unranked Cal as an 18 ½-point road favorite, while the Tigers had to battle back from a 24-0 deficit to beat the then-No. 11 Crimson Tide, 28-27, as a 4 ½-point road underdog. Do not underestimate the value of being battle tested in big games as Auburn has already proven it can overcome major adversity while the jury is still out on Oregon.

From a trends standpoint Auburn is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Oregon is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record and 3-3-1 ATS in its last six games overall.

All told, I am not saying that Oregon cannot win this game, I am simply saying they won’t.

[Jumbo]

I agree, fuck a duck.