How to Beat Cam Newton: You Don't

[Saniflush]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703567304575628761034247100.html

As college football's game of the year approaches—Auburn at Alabama on Friday—everything seems stacked against the second-ranked Tigers.

There's the site. The opponent (defensive mastermind Nick Saban). The ongoing Cam Newton saga. Even the vibe of the 2010 season suggests Auburn is going down. Everything that's happened in the national-title chase this season—in which Boise State and Texas Christian, two schools outside the sport's favored conferences, have inched ever closer to a historic title-game berth—suggests that chaos awaits five days from now.

But the guess here is that the revolution may have to wait another year.

The time to beat Auburn was in Week 3, when Mr. Newton—still a raw passer instead of college football's best player—threw two interceptions against Clemson. Or in Week 2, when Auburn limped to a 17-14 win over Mississippi State after Lee Ziemba, the Tigers' starting left tackle, got hurt.

Twelve games into the season, after Mr. Newton has had three months to settle into offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn's up-tempo spread offense, is not the time.

To be sure, it wouldn't be a shock if Alabama defeated Auburn, a result that would ignite the mother of all Bowl Championship Series debates between TCU and Boise State (and Auburn and even LSU) over who deserves to follow Oregon in the BCS standings. (The Tigers also have a Southeastern Conference title-game date with South Carolina, which held a second-half lead on Auburn in September before losing, while the top-ranked Ducks have two games left. They'll likely be a sizable favorites against Arizona and at Oregon State.)

The Crimson Tide defeated the Tigers at Auburn last season sans Mr. Newton, who hadn't yet joined the team, and Auburn will be missing two defensive linemen for the first half Friday because of league suspensions stemming from a fight in the Tigers' last game, against Georgia.

But neither of those suspended players is, ironically, Auburn star lineman Nick Fairley, whose hits on Georgia's quarterback precipitated the fracas and who can be expected to exploit Alabama's pass-protection problems. Before last weekend's games, the Tide ranked 10th in the Southeastern Conference in sacks allowed.

As for the headline matchup—whether Mr. Saban and Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart can cook up a scheme to stop Mr. Newton and Auburn's offense—the experience that the Tigers have gained by facing different defensive strategies is their edge in this game. Opponents have tried both containing Mr. Newton on the ground and taking the ball out of his hands. Both approaches have failed.

LSU, which ranks first in the SEC in total defense this season, tried containment. Although LSU stayed competitive with Auburn, losing 24-17, it's a stretch to call its strategy successful. Auburn gained 526 yards, including a season-high 217 yards rushing by Mr. Newton on 28 carries. (Auburn's point total suffered from a missed field goal, a fumble and seven drives that started at no better than its own 20 yard-line.)

The trouble with defending Auburn in a fairly conservative manner—with four pass-rushers and two safeties deep—became clear on a couple of plays. On one, a 29-yard run by Mr. Newton in the second quarter, LSU rushed the standard four, and its middle linebacker stayed four yards off the line of scrimmage (instead of dropping farther into pass coverage). So it wasn't like the defense took itself out of position.

But LSU still had no chance against what Auburn called: a designed quarterback draw from the shotgun. After the snap, Mr. Newton waited a moment, selling the play as a pass, then took off up the middle. Auburn's center took on the LSU middle linebacker—a mismatch. That cleared the middle of the field, enabling Mr. Newton to run for nearly 30 yards before any contact.

Then there was the play that remains the highlight of Mr. Newton's season: when he rambled through the LSU defense in the third quarter for a 49-yard touchdown run. On this play, LSU had six defenders in the box against five Auburn linemen, two running backs and Mr. Newton. (The two safeties were over 10 yards deep, off the TV screen.) Since the backs got involved blocking, LSU was outnumbered. Mr. Newton blew through the line into the secondary, then barreled through the overmatched defensive backs on to the end zone, dragging LSU star Patrick Peterson the final five yards.

The following week, Mississippi tried to force anyone but Mr. Newton to beat them. The Rebels stacked the line of scrimmage and assigned a linebacker to stalk the quarterback wherever he went.

A couple of months ago, this approach might have gotten somewhere. In Auburn's first two real games of the season, at Mississippi State and against Clemson (we're ignoring the opener against Arkansas State), Mr. Newton threw just 33 passes and still was intercepted three times. Mississippi State also missed out on another interception that could've changed that game.

But that was as less polished Mr. Newton. Against the Rebels, he hit 18 of 24 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions. Didn't matter that he had just 45 yards rushing. Freshman running back Michael Dyer—who wasn't as big a part of the offense early in the season—had 180 yards rushing, and Auburn won 51-31.

Granted, Ole Miss's defense isn't Alabama's. And the Tide will surely learn from LSU's experience. But as the game of the year nears, the problem for Alabama is Mr. Newton and Auburn have been learning all the while, too.

[Snaggletiger]

That's right..."Mr." Newton biatches. Agreed on all points.  The time to get him was early...before...they turned him loose.

On a side note, Boise's coach said in an interview this weekend when asked about the BCS and getting in the MNC game.....and his response was...(paraphrasing)"I can't worry about that because we are facing the toughest team we'll face all year this weekend in Nevada."

Need anyone say more?

[djsimp]

Yes, the word is that there is a 4.5 second video that has been sent to the bama D for them all to watch. I would love to see this video. Hasn't anybody learned yet?