PLEASE!!!!

[Snaggletiger]

Still a month left to go. A lot could happen between now and then.

Truer words were never spoken. 

Now, let's talk about that bet.  I'm with the Chiz in saying I'm not betting against my Planesmens under this scenario.  A lot of if's and could be's between now and then but I may take some (We'll discuss terms later but a grand ain't involved) of that action,

IF...we get jumped this week, and...

IF...we win out, and...

IF...Bama loses to either LSU or MSU.

That is the scenario I've been fearing.  There are many who say that the powers that be realized their mistake in 04' and won't let it happen.  I would submit that there's a stronger faction of the PTB that want to jump on the first chance they get to finally let the fly in the ointment prove it's worth. 

[AuburnChopper 3.0]

Two things...

1). We do NOT have any other AQ schools in front o us like in 2004.  This is nowhere in the same conversation as 2004.  Basing fear on what happened in 2004 is skewed.

2). As the number if games increase, the computer averages move less and less.  You will not see leaps towards the end like in the earlier weeks where smaller changes can cause more significant changes.

Those that know the BCS have seen this and based on how much certain things can and can't move, already have called it a virtual certainty that AU will be in the top 2 if we win out.  Most have AU at #1.   

Not sure where all this worrying is coming from. 

[djsimp]

We will still be in the NC game when we beat bama regardless if they lose a game between here and there. The point is, that would make us undefeated and the human polls would have us at #1 at that point. How do I know, well we jumped to #2 in the coaches poll this week and a win on the road in Tuskaloser to remain undefeated in the SEC. That would put us at #1 in both polls and more importantly in the coaches poll since it carries weight in the BCS. Not to mention that this would still gives us more points to boot in the BSC because of a win over a ranked opponent.

When we win out, we will play in the BCS NC game.

[JR4AU]

Catch me after TCU dismantles Utah this Saturday.

Translation: you can't, it ain't never happened. 

[JR4AU]

Two things...

1). We do NOT have any other AQ schools in front o us like in 2004.  This is nowhere in the same conversation as 2004.  Basing fear on what happened in 2004 is skewed.

2). As the number if games increase, the computer averages move less and less.  You will not see leaps towards the end like in the earlier weeks where smaller changes can cause more significant changes.

Those that know the BCS have seen this and based on how much certain things can and can't move, already have called it a virtual certainty that AU will be in the top 2 if we win out.  Most have AU at #1.   

Not sure where all this worrying is coming from.

Well fuck me running....Chopper, the fucking voice of reason.

[Saniflush]

Well fuck me running....Chopper, the fucking voice of reason.

Don't be too hard him.  He just got his meds refilled.

[Godfather]

Don't be too hard him.  He just got his meds refilled.

I wish Chizad would go to CVS and get his Midol refilled

[djsimp]

Look what ya'll have gone and done, now Scarbinsky is chiming in on the madness.
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/11/this_is_not_2004_all_over_agai.html

This is not 2004 all over again for Auburn, and that's a good thing
Published: Monday, November 01, 2010, 10:56 AM     Updated: Monday, November 01, 2010, 10:58 AM
 Kevin Scarbinsky, Birmingham News


Check the calendar, Auburn fan. It's not 2004.
OK, Auburn fan. Take a deep breath. Inhale through the nose, exhale through the mouth. It's going to be OK. Really, it is.

It's easy to understand why you've been hyperventilating since Sunday night. Your team won a conference road game by 20 points Saturday night, 51-31 at Ole Miss. Your team scored more points on the road than it has since Oct. 31, 1970, in a 63-14 victory at Florida.

Your team scored more points against the Rebels, and beat them by a wider margin, than any other team on their schedule. In an alleged trap game, your team made a mockery of Ole Miss and its gray uniform gimmickry.

And what did it get the Tigers? They dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the BCS standings behind Oregon.

Of all the college football programs in America, Auburn has more of a right to fret about BCS number-crunching than anyone else. See 2004. That memory alone haunts the Tigers. It makes it hard for you, Auburn fan, to take what happened Sunday night lying down.

But you should. Lie down, that is. Take a breath, and that nasty feeling of deja vu should pass.

This isn't 2004 all over again, and that's a good thing for the Tigers.

Oh sure, there's a chance they'll play a rematch in the SEC Championship Game, as they did in 2004, which doesn't provide much bounce in the computers. But two things are very different than they were six years ago for Auburn.

One of them is Alabama.

Beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa this year, by any margin, and Auburn will get more respect nationally than it's received all year. Which makes sense.

This time, Alabama is the defending national champion. This time, Alabama is in the BCS race itself. This time, Alabama is Alabama again.

Couple that opportunity, for Auburn to beat an Alabama team at full strength, with the reality that Auburn never got into the top two in the BCS rankings at any point in 2004, and there's no reason for you, Auburn fan, to worry about anything other than your team taking care of its own business.

Wait. Something just flew by my window. Looked like a helicopter.

I don't think it was black.

[JR4AU]

Beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa this year, by any margin, and Auburn will get more respect nationally than it's received all year. Which makes sense.

I can see and hear it now.  Bammers everywhere will be socking that little tidbit away, just in case, just in case they lose....just in case Auburn wins it all...then they'll proudly proclaim all over the net and talk radio airwaves how Auburn still needed bammer to win it all....how it wasn't possible for Auburn to get the respect it needs without Bammer.   

The rest of it...spot on.

[Buzz Killington]

Translation: you can't, it ain't never happened.

yet

[Snaggletiger]

That was Fred Talley that flew by his window.

[Godfather]

That was Fred Talley that flew by his window.

Actually it was Cam's new laptop

[JR4AU]

yet and won't

FTFY

Seriously...any of you that buy in to this "Auburn is going to be jumped by Boise or TCU", are basically saying that in your hearts and minds, you believe bammers are correct when they say we have no national respect, and that the ONLY way Auburn will ever win a BCS title is if there's just no other remotely viable choice to play in the game....the year that complete BCS Armageddon happens Auburn will go undefeated and we'll get to finally play a 3 loss Mtn West or WAC team for all the marbles because all the planes carrying all other BCS AQ teams on road game trips met over Kansas and collided....and the Home teams that same day were wiped out by the plague, and by some quirk of fate, Auburn was in their practice bubble at the right time, and survived on Guthries and Momma G's take out for 7 days while the plague passed.  I'm fucking sick of listening to this bammerish whining. 

[djsimp]

As Chopper eluded to, as each week progresses the point system tightens up because there are more numbers to include in the equation. Also, the point difference between us and Oregon is a very small amount. From what I have went back to find, it is a very small margin. Now, look at the margin between the top two teams and then TCU and Boise. That from what I understand is a pretty significant amount and even if TCU beats Utah, they still probably want jump us.

[Snaggletiger]

Oregon was at .9069 last week.  They didn't play #5.  I'm juuuuusssst sayin'.

Honestly, do I think it will happen? No.  I just hate this F'n system and I don't trust any of it til it's said and done.

[AUTiger1]

Oregon still has to play Arizona, Boise still has to play Nevada and Hawaii and TCU well, they play Utah, the loser of that game is fucked.

If we take care of business, I honestly believe that we will be in the BCSNCG. 

[War Eagle!!!]

There are 5 teams in the SEC West that are in the BCS Top 20. 5...in one division. And you guys are telling me, that if Auburn beats all of them, and then a number 19 team in the BCS in the SEC Championship, that there is a chance we will get fucked by a team that has played only one team in the top 5, or a different team that has played only 2 teams at number 22 and 23? Yeah. That shit aint happening...

[AUTailgatingRules]

Just a little observation from the cheap seats.  If LSU beats Bama and then wins out, do we still not have a win over a top 5 BCS opponent?  LSU currently sits at #10 and will move up leaps and bounds with a vitory over Bama and either TCU or Utah losing this week.  If LSU and Miss State beat Bama, Miss Stae will probably be in the top 10-15.  Bama will end up in the top 25 even if they lose to both.

Given we win them all, that would give us victories over a top 5, top 15, and top 25 BCS rated team.  No one else can touch that.  Forget about all this silly rooting for Bama stuff, talk about serious negative Karma.

[djsimp]

Ok, still doubting? Auburn jumped to #2 with a closer points race when we beat LSU, a team with way higher percentages across the computer equation. Either TCU or Utah wins, they still don't have those type numbers. Ok, you may be saying well why did Auburn drop to #2 when they are #1 across the BCS numbers. That is because when you add both the Harris poll and Coaches poll in together, that outweighs the BCS numbers. Both of those polls have us at #2 and Oregon at #1. Still not on board? Ok, lets simulate some numbers by taking the last three weeks worth of BCS numbers and do a mock ranking. Lets say TCU, being higher ranked than Utah, wins and of course Auburn beats the Mocs. Taking the same sum numbers from when we beat LSU (with higher BCS percentages I might add) and add to the TCU total as of 10/31. That gives TCU +/- .9640 for 11/7. Add the typical non ranked but win number (diff of .230) and add that to Auburn for 11/7 and you get .9830. Now, this is a quick glaze over but I would money on that difference on being even larger if we correctly calculated it.
Attached are the last two weeks of BSC standings.

[JR4AU]

Oregon was at .9069 last week.  They didn't play #5.  I'm juuuuusssst sayin'.

Honestly, do I think it will happen? No.  I just hate this F'n system and I don't trust any of it til it's said and done.

Human polls are still the most important aspect.  And we're #2 there, and #1 in all the computers.  It's already getting to the point where the math wins for Auburn unless the human polls move TCU up 2 spots over teams that didn't lose.  I'm not sure if that would still be enough to overcome everything else.  And they aint gonna do that in the human polls.   Last week we leaped Boise in the Harris poll, and increased our point lead on TCU.  As well as closed the point gap on Oregon. 

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/BCS_Oct_24_2010.pdf

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/vault/BCS_Oct_31_2010.pdf

In the last 3 weeks we went from #5, to #3, to #2 in the Coaches poll.  Leaping both TCU and Boise.