CFN picks the SEC

[Tiger Wench]

South Carolina (3-0) at Auburn (3-0) Sept. 25, 7:45, ESPN and ESPN3.com

Here’s The Deal … If everything breaks the right way, this could be a preview of the SEC Championship. South Carolina hasn’t been a total shock so far, but after beating Georgia to kick off SEC play, and with the blowout of a Southern Miss team that crushed Kansas, this has the look of Steve Spurrier’s best Gamecock team by far. After getting last week off against Furman, the Gamecocks now have a fight on their hands over the next several weeks. If going to Auburn wasn’t hard enough, after a bye week comes the showdown against Alabama. Suddenly, road dates at Kentucky and Vanderbilt don’t appear to be free spaces, and there’s still Arkansas, Tennessee, at Florida, and at Clemson to deal with. But for now, the excitement is sky high for a team with a power running game, a veteran quarterback, and a defense that ranks first in the SEC against the run.

Auburn has already been through a full and interesting season. The Mississippi State game wasn’t pretty, but it was an SEC divisional win on the road, and then came last week’s war with Clemson that was among the hardest-hitting, most physical games played all season long. The Tigers got beaten up, but if they can get through this showdown by squeaking out a win, there’s a nice break with ULM up next as part of a run of four home games in five week. Considering Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia are at home, Auburn has one of the SEC’s easier slates … before facing Alabama in the season finale. For now, getting by South Carolina would legitimize a strong start and would only raise the hype more for one of the league’s most fun and exciting teams.

Why South Carolina Might Win: Every game takes a little while to recover from, and college kids tend to bounce back quickly, but the Clemson game was the type of fierce fight that usually takes at least a full week to recover from. The Tiger front line is banged up with star left tackle Lee Ziemba fighting through a knee injury and with starting right tackle A.J. Greene out for the year with a broken ankle. The Auburn line has been good so far in pass protection and is doing what’s needed to get all the talent in the backfield on the move, but South Carolina ‘s defensive front is playing at an extremely high level. The Gamecocks are sixth in the nation against the run, allowing fewer than 60 rushing yards per game, and they’re flying into the backfield with 11 sacks in the first three games. Auburn’s offense will have to rally time and again after getting hit with a big defensive play.

Why Auburn Might Win: For all the talk and all the press about Cam Newton’s running ability and the explosion with the ground game, the passing game is clicking helped by big home runs. Helped by a Terrell Zachery 78-yard touchdown catch against Clemson (and helped by a busted coverage), Auburn leads the nation in passing efficiency and is averaging a solid 200 passing yards per game. South Carolina, despite a fearsome pass rush, has been picked apart through the air allowing 803 yards including 274 to Furman and 337 to Southern Miss. While the Gamecocks have only given up two touchdown passes and picked off three passes, Auburn doesn’t need to bomb away for a slew of scores; it just has to balance things out and move the chains.

What To Watch Out For: While Mark Ingram might be the star of the SEC backs, and Florida’s Jeff Demps and Kentucky’s Derrick Locke have been phenomenal so far, the running back stars of the near future, and the present, should have a terrific duel. South Carolina freshman Marcus Lattimore has been everything he was advertised to be, and more, pounding on Georgia for 182 yards and a touchdown and running for 97 yards against Furman. He has been a workhorse and a good ying to quarterback Stephen Garcia’s yang, providing a tough element to the ground game that’s been missing over the last few years. Now, South Carolina’s much-maligned offensive front is allowed to be physical. Auburn freshman Michael Dyer hasn’t been the main man with Newton the team’s best runner so far and Onterio McCalebb running so well, but he has the talent to explode whenever he has the ball. Effective every time he has had the chance, he’s being trusted with more and more work and is producing every time. However, Auburn can win if Dyer isn’t great, but South Carolina can’t pull it out if Lattimore's not terrific.

What Will Happen: Call it the hangover effect. Auburn will have to gear it up for all the punches South Carolina will throw, and after the way the Clemson game went, it’ll be hard to hold up and be physical for a full sixty minutes. By their own admission, the fresher Gamecocks went through the motions last week against Furman. It’s going to be a hard-hitting battle with a great game from both Lattimore and Garcia being the difference.

CFN Prediction: South Carolina 20 … Auburn 17

[Tiger Wench]

Alabama (3-0) at Arkansas (3-0) Sept. 25, 3:30, CBS

Here’s The Deal … If Arkansas is ready to turn the corner, really ready to turn the corner, this is the game it needs to have. After a strong performance in a last-second win at Georgia, the Hog love is flowing for a team with a high-octane offense, a solid defense, and the type of quarterback who makes NFL scouts get warm and fuzzy feelings inside. Bobby Petrino’s team has been building towards this game and this moment, and after losing three straight in the series and getting destroyed in the last two against the Tide, a win would vault Arkansas to the front row in the national title chase. However, a win doesn’t assure an SEC West title with road trips to Auburn and South Carolina ahead, but the LSU game is at home, and if the Hogs are good enough to beat Alabama, they’re good enough to beat anyone left on the slate.


Alabama is the unquestioned No. 1 team in the nation, but it’s time to show why. Beating Penn State doesn’t mean as much right now that it would’ve over the last few years, and beating San Jose State and Duke is beating San Jose State and Duke. Beating Arkansas at Arkansas would be special, and doing it impressively, would mean that any and all rebuilding is over. Everything is humming on offense with Mark Ingram back to add even more pop to a balanced attack that wasn’t exactly in need of a boost, while the defense has been every bit as fast and as stifling as it was last year. As crazy as this might sound, this could be the easiest date on the schedule for a while with Florida up next and three road games in the following four. How tough are things going to be for the Tide? After playing the Gators, the next five opponents get an extra week off to prepare for the national champs.

Why Alabama Might Win: The pass defense is working. Of all the areas on defense that needed retooling and reloading, the secondary was among the biggest concerns. The talent was undeniable, but how quickly could all the superstar recruits turn into primetime performers? Penn State has a nice receiving corps and David Cutcliffe’s Duke attack can wing it around the yards, but the Tide secondary has still been tremendous allowing just one touchdown pass with five interceptions. Even though teams have had to bomb away to try to keep up the pace, Bama has only allowed 362 passing yards on the season with the first three teams combining to complete a mere 41-of-92 throws. Ryan Mallett might get 362 yards in this game, but the Tide will win more than its share of battles.

Why Arkansas Might Win: The offensive line is playing well. Mallett is doing a great job of getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry, and he’s starting to answer his pro scout critics who suggest that he can’t make accurate throws on the move, but he’s also getting a ton of help from the front five. Georgia’s Justin Houston was a non-factor until one big play on a late Hog drive, and for the most part, the Bulldog pass rush was totally neutralized. As good as Alabama might be, the pass rush has been non-existent so far with a mere two sacks in the first three games and only nine tackles for loss. That’s not to say the defensive front seven doesn’t have the skill to get into the backfield, but it hasn’t needed to sell out in any way so far and it hasn’t had to provide much pressure to succeed. However, considering this is a D that’s still getting its feet wet in several spots, it has to prove it can get to Mallett. If the big bomber isn’t in a hurry, and he gets an extra second to find his second receiver, Arkansas will move the ball.

What To Watch Out For: All the attention will be paid to the matchup of Heisman candidates with Mallett and Ingram on display, and rightly so, but the key might be Alabama QB Greg McElroy. The nation’s leader in passing efficiency had his best game of the 2009 season against the Hogs, throwing for 291 yards with three scores. However, he’s not going to outbomb his counterpart.

Mallett answered some questions last week about his inability to win on the road and his struggles late in tight games by engineering a brilliant win, and he has been nothing short of spectacular so far throwing three touchdown passes in each of the first three outings with 301 yards against Tennessee Tech, 400 against ULM, and 380 against Georgia. Since coming to Arkansas, he has thrown for 200 yards or more in every game but one; last year’s 35-7 loss to Bama. He completed 12-of-35 passes for 160 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and if he can make amends, his NFL draft stock will shoot up from first rounder to possibly No. 1 overall.

Also looking for a good game after what happened last year is Ingram, who was held to just 50 yards on 17 carries. He looked fresh, fast, and really, really good in his season debut against Duke, and now he can make a big push for a second straight Heisman if he can dominate with the world watching.
What Will Happen: Mallett will get his yards and Bama will be pushed, but the Tide offense will flex its muscle. The track is expected to be a bit sloppy with rain in the forecast, and Ingram will take advantage. McElroy will be brilliant and Ingram will crank out 100 yards in what will be a fantastic all-around offensive performance. In a game of ebbs and flows, the Tide will appear to be comfortably ahead in the second half before Mallett bombs the Hogs back into it to make it interesting. And then Ingram will drop the hammer with a time-killing final drive to seal the tough win.

CFN Prediction: Alabama 27 … Arkansas 23

[Godfather]

I really thing that our defensive gameplan should be 8 in the box and make Garcia beat us with the pass.  I think this is gonna be another slobberknocker and I fear he is right after the last 2 weeks, can we keep up the pace?

[Token]

CFN Prediction: Alabama 27 … Arkansas 23

So, Georgia (who didn't sniff the end zone against South Carolina) scored 24 points against the hogs with an abysmal rushing attack, a freshman quarterback and it's top offensive threat suspended.....and Alabama is going to score only 3 more.

If these two teams combine for under 60, I'll eat my hat. 

[djsimp]

I really thing that our defensive gameplan should be 8 in the box and make Garcia beat us with the pass.  I think this is gonna be another slobberknocker and I fear he is right after the last 2 weeks, can we keep up the pace?

Ditto and yes. I agree totally about 8 up front and make the sometimes opponent friendly beat us with his arm, no pun intended. I think we will see a couple of turnovers come our way via pass because of this. Here's the deal, (Lou Holtz voice), Auburn will have to keep Latt to a max of 120 yrds rushing making Garcia play some. The D will have to play more man and be in Garcia's face all night. I think I can hear Fairly coming as we speak. The secondary will have to play the best they have yet and the LB'ers just need to stay at on their feet with Bynes turning it up again and Stephens getting back in the groove. South Carolina has played one noteworthy team and that it Georgia, and they are struggling right now. We're gonna give them all they can handle and then some. I don't think their offense will be able to handle the physicality.

[Saniflush]

If these two teams combine for under 60, I'll eat my hat.

54.5 is the o/u

[Token]

54.5 is the o/u

Free money. 

[Saniflush]

Free money.

Hell I was liking ours better at 46

[Tiger Wench]

If these two teams combine for under 60, I'll eat my hat.

Can it be a chapeau of my choosing?

[Token]

Can it be a chapeau of my choosing?

I'm just going to give an encore performance to BG's hat ingesting, so be my guest.  After all, the material used to procreate a hat would mean certain death once it navigated it's path to my lower intestines. 

[Hogwally]

54.5 is the o/u

     The only reason I might disagree is I think 'bama will try to grind it out when they have the ball.  I say the first one to 33 wins.

[Godfather]

Hell I was liking ours better at 46

I am thinking low scoring affair...I would go under.

[Token]

     The only reason I might disagree is I think 'bama will try to grind it out when they have the ball.  I say the first one to 33 wins.

I'm basing my opinion of 60+ on the countless Arkansas threads I've read in the last 24 hours.  No fucking way in hell is Bama going to run on Arkansas' defense, so everyone's running deep on every play.  The team with the most sacks wins. 

At least, that's the general consensus that I've seen.

[RWS]

Arkansas
Until they can prove they can run the ball, I think Alabama stays in dime most of the game. Plenty of DBs on the field means that many more possibilities with our pre-snap motions and confusing Mallett. Also more creativity when disguising.

If I remember correctly, the entire interior of their OL are redshirt freshmen. Only the two tackles have seen any real PT. While we don't have TC anymore, I still think this is going to be problematic. Especially when we start bringing Hightower, (hopefully if his ankle is healed) Upshaw, and Barron on blitzes up the middle.

I'm not so much sold on their defense being vastly improved. Slightly improved, maybe. I just wasn't really seeing it against UGA. I hate to use one game to set a standard, but the only other games Arky has played are ULM and Tennessee Tech.

The key to Arkansas performance will be how well Mallett handles the pressure. The gameplan for the past few years has been to throw all kinds of weird pre-snap looks to Mallett, and use blitzes coming from any and everywhere. True enough, it gives him a better chance of burning us, but that is only if he holds it together. But I think we have seen that more often than not, it forces him into bad decisions.

Alabama
Arkansas did a pretty good job last season of selling their souls to stop the run. That's about the only thing they stopped. They put 8-9 in the box and dared us to beat them in the air. Unfortunately for them, I think our passing game has improved this season.

Pressure is the key. I think we will get plenty of pressure on Mallett, and while I have confidence in our DBs, I don't want them on an island with their man and Mallett having time to stand tall in the pocket. That just won't end well.

Something I like that Alabama does is (supposedly) they show alot of the offensive playbook early on. I say supposedly because, well, I just don't know what all is in there. Saban has said in the past that they like to do this because they feel if they show it, the opposing team will feel like they have to prepare for it. At some point you give them so much to prepare for, instead of learning to defend only a handful of plays very well, they have to add so much to the preparation. Having a multiple offense helps this philosophy as well. Not so much the philosophy on the defensive side though, as I have only seen a few blitzes here and there this season. And usually it hasn't even been disguised, and there is no pre-snap shifting, other than LBs shuffling to compensate for stong/weakside when a TE moves or flexes.

I think Arky will be mismatched in the trenches on both sides, and that will be huge for Alabama. Other than Mallett, Arkansas just doesn't have anything that scares anybody.

[Token]

Arkansas
Until they can prove they can run the ball, I think Alabama stays in dime most of the game. Plenty of DBs on the field means that many more possibilities with our pre-snap motions and confusing Mallett. Also more creativity when disguising.

If I remember correctly, the entire interior of their OL are redshirt freshmen. Only the two tackles have seen any real PT. While we don't have TC anymore, I still think this is going to be problematic. Especially when we start bringing Hightower, (hopefully if his ankle is healed) Upshaw, and Barron on blitzes up the middle.

I'm not so much sold on their defense being vastly improved. Slightly improved, maybe. I just wasn't really seeing it against UGA. I hate to use one game to set a standard, but the only other games Arky has played are ULM and Tennessee Tech.

The key to Arkansas performance will be how well Mallett handles the pressure. The gameplan for the past few years has been to throw all kinds of weird pre-snap looks to Mallett, and use blitzes coming from any and everywhere. True enough, it gives him a better chance of burning us, but that is only if he holds it together. But I think we have seen that more often than not, it forces him into bad decisions.

Alabama
Arkansas did a pretty good job last season of selling their souls to stop the run. That's about the only thing they stopped. They put 8-9 in the box and dared us to beat them in the air. Unfortunately for them, I think our passing game has improved this season.

Pressure is the key. I think we will get plenty of pressure on Mallett, and while I have confidence in our DBs, I don't want them on an island with their man and Mallett having time to stand tall in the pocket. That just won't end well.

Something I like that Alabama does is (supposedly) they show alot of the offensive playbook early on. I say supposedly because, well, I just don't know what all is in there. Saban has said in the past that they like to do this because they feel if they show it, the opposing team will feel like they have to prepare for it. At some point you give them so much to prepare for, instead of learning to defend only a handful of plays very well, they have to add so much to the preparation. Having a multiple offense helps this philosophy as well. Not so much the philosophy on the defensive side though, as I have only seen a few blitzes here and there this season. And usually it hasn't even been disguised, and there is no pre-snap shifting, other than LBs shuffling to compensate for stong/weakside when a TE moves or flexes.

I think Arky will be mismatched in the trenches on both sides, and that will be huge for Alabama. Other than Mallett, Arkansas just doesn't have anything that scares anybody.

All of that is a moot point now.  Arkansas has officially decided to "Red" us out.  We are finished.

[Godfather]

All of that is a moot point now.  Arkansas has officially decided to "Red" us out.  We are finished.

So the stadium will look like one big used tampon....nice.

[Buzz Killington]

So the stadium will look like one big used tampon....nice.

So....kind of like a home game for them.

[Godfather]

and in response to RWS regarding bama showing the playbook.  There is nothing really tricky about your offense, you just have great playmakers.  I mean really bama, runs a prostyle, run first smash mouth offense.  You use your two big runners to setup the pass, you know have an experience quarterback, who just needs to manage the game, and an WR who can bail you out if you need him.  It isn't really that hard to figure out.   

The problem is you don't do anything flashy, but what you do is fundamentally sound.  Arkansas can stack the box, McElmo has proved he can beat you with his arm.  Truthfully, I think this game comes down to who has the ball last.

[Hogwally]

All of that is a moot point now.  Arkansas has officially decided to "Red" us out.  We are finished.

     Yeah, that's pretty gay.  Not too proud of that one.  If I was going, I'd have to wear white in protest of coming up with something so lame.  Wish I could be there, but I'd never been to Athens, so I decided to go this year and I can't swing trips in back to back weeks.

     I think this is a game the hogs can win, but they need to have a really good day.  Most importantly, Mallett has to manage his emotions, keep his excitement in check, and (a) not overthrow wide open WRs and (b) not go to the rocket arm on 5 yd passes to his TEs.  He had a couple tipped passes last week, and I think that made him decide he was going to break anybody else's fingers that stuck them up in the way.
     It would also help if the ST play last week was not a fluke.  All three kickers were great, hopefully that continues.

[RWS]

and in response to RWS regarding bama showing the playbook.  There is nothing really tricky about your offense, you just have great playmakers.  I mean really bama, runs a prostyle, run first smash mouth offense.  You use your two big runners to setup the pass, you know have an experience quarterback, who just needs to manage the game, and an WR who can bail you out if you need him.  It isn't really that hard to figure out.   

The problem is you don't do anything flashy, but what you do is fundamentally sound.  Arkansas can stack the box, McElmo has proved he can beat you with his arm.  Truthfully, I think this game comes down to who has the ball last.

I understand that, but probably should have elaborated my point a little better. As far as showing the playbook and the complexity of the offense, I am more so talking about the different combinations of formations and personnel, and the plays we run out of those formations. Maybe that explains a little better. I totally agree that we don't really do anything tricky.